Thursday presents a six-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyler Herro vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $9,000
Herro was terrific in the Heat’s upset over the Celtics in Boston last night, leading Miami with 51 DraftKings points. The Heat have now won six in a row, and they could finish as high as the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, so every game is pivotal for Miami right now. During this win streak, Herro has put the team on his back, scoring at least 45 DraftKings points in five of six games.
Herro leads the Heat with a 28.3% usage rate and a 26% assist percentage this season, and this is an elite matchup vs. the Grizzlies, who lead the league in pace this season. Miami ranks third-to-last, so this is a massive pace-up spot. This game carries a total of 225.5 points, which is high for this slow-paced Heat squad, and Herro is an excellent spend in this setting.
Top Value: Jamal Shead vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,500
Shead is a stellar value play with Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl being rested tonight. The Raptors have played three games without these two starters since the All-Star break, and Shead thrived on those occasions, averaging 32.3 DraftKings points in 26.6 minutes per game with a 21% usage rate.
The Trail Blazers have been dreadful on defense recently, ranking 26th in defensive rating over their last five games, and Shead should exceed five-times value with ease in this juicy spot.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shaedon Sharpe at Toronto Raptors – $7,100
If Anfernee Simons (questionable, forearm) remains sidelined tonight — which seems likely with nothing at stake for the Trail Blazers — Sharpe will be an elite target. With Simons, Scoot Henderson (out, concussion) and Jerami Grant (doubtful, knee) out Tuesday vs. the Hawks, Sharpe erupted for 56 DraftKings points across 38.5 minutes.
With Simons, Henderson and Grant off the court this season, Sharpe is handling a 27% usage rate. That’s a +2.0 percentage point upgrade from his average, and he’s amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM in that split. The Raptors are leading the NBA in defensive rating since the All-Star break, but the huge role Sharpe will see if Simons is out will out trump any matchup concerns at this affordable salary.
Top Value: Ja’Kobe Walter vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,200
Walter is the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections with Quickley and Poeltl sidelined tonight. In the three games these two starters have missed since the All-Star break, Walter is generating 28.4 DraftKings points in 29.3 minutes per game.
Walter has garnered a healthy 19.3% usage rate in these contests, and he should destroy his low salary against this struggling Portland defense.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Deni Avdija at Toronto Raptors – $8,600
Avdija has been on fire, and chasing his ceiling is a smart move on Thursday. The forward went off for 72.25 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks on Tuesday and has topped 50 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts.
Since the All-Star break, Avdija is handling a 25.3% usage rate and shooting 51% from the field, which has resulted in a team-high 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Simons sitting tonight would be an obvious boost for Avdija, but even if Simons suits up, Avdija is still too cheap for his recent form and is a player you must have some exposure to.
Top Value: Jalen Wilson vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,700
Wilson has been great recently, scoring 28 DraftKings PPG in his last three games, and his strong play earned him a starting spot for the Nets in his most recent game. Wilson logged 28 minutes with the starting job and should receive a similar workload tonight. Brooklyn will remain very shorthanded, with Cam Thomas (hamstring), Cameron Johnson (back), Noah Clowney (ankle) and Ziarie Williams (rest) all out.
With these four players off the court this season, Wilson is amassing 0.7 DraftKings PPM with a 18.7% usage rate. The forward is clearly underpriced for his expected workload tonight and is a viable punt for all formats.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Philadelphia 76ers – $12,100
In a much-needed win, Antetokounmpo erupted for 69.25 DraftKings points vs. the Suns on Tuesday. Damian Lillard (calf) missed this game and will remain out Thursday. Furthermore, Antetokounmpo is facing a 76ers defense that ranks dead last in rating since the All-Star break, and the Bucks carry the highest implied team total on the slate (119.5 points).
Antetokounmpo is producing 62 DraftKings PPG with Lillard inactive this season (10 games), making him the clear No. 1 stud to pay up for Thursday.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $3,700
Anderson has been a great spark off the bench for Heat as they jockey to improve their seed before the Play-In Tournament. The veteran posted 23.75 DraftKings points last night vs. the Celtics, which is the fourth time in his last five games that Anderson has recorded at least 18 DraftKings points.
Anderson has seen at least 20 minutes off the bench in three straight games, and with Miami winning all of them, he should maintain this role tonight in this appealing spot vs. the Grizzlies. Anderson is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season, and over 20 DraftKings is a strong possibility for him tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Brooklyn Nets – $7,800
Randle has stepped up his game as the Timberwolves chase the Warriors for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Minnesota is only a half-game back of Golden State, and with every game critical right now, Randle has scored at least 45 DraftKings points in three straight games.
The Kentucky product is supplying 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 25.9% usage rate this season, and the Nets are merely 23rd in defensive rating. Brooklyn is missing many key players tonight, giving Randle upside for 40+ DraftKings points.
Top Value: Brook Lopez at Philadelphia 76ers – $6,000
Lopez is a compelling, affordable way to attack the Bucks and their slate-high implied team total. Not only is Lillard out, but Milwaukee remains without Bobby Portis due to his suspension, which opens up more playing time and usage for Lopez. In the nine games the veteran has played without both Lillard and Portis this season, Lopez is providing 35.8 DraftKings points in 35.4 minutes per game, and his usage rate is up +2.5% in those contests (per the On/Off Tool).
The 76ers are allowing the fourth-most points in the paint since the All-Star break, and Lopez should have zero issues outproducing his salary in this elite matchup.
