The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
The time may have come and passed for James Harden not getting his massive free throw numbers. Harden made 16 of 19 free throws last game against the Indiana Pacers. In his five previous games, he had 16 total free throw attempts! Harden is notoriously a high-volume free-throw shooter. If he is going to be getting 10+ free throw attempts per game again, his ceiling is way too high for this price tag on both sites.
Harden should be salivating in this matchup with the Detroit Pistons coming to town. The Pistons are coming off of their first win of the season last night against the Orlando Magic. The Nets are favored by 13 points tonight, which is the largest spread on the slate. This game could easily get out of hand, but Harden should be a major factor regardless.
Top Value: Cade Cunningham at Brooklyn Nets – $3,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Cade Cunningham made his NBA debut last night. He played 19 minutes and really struggled. Cunningham shot 1-8 from the field, which was the second-worst field goal percentage by a number one overall pick in their NBA debut. This is a back-to-back, and they obviously want to be careful with him, so monitor the news to make sure he is playing in this game.
If Cunningham plays, I love this price tag on him, especially on DraftKings. Yes, he shot badly in his opening game, but he also had seven rebounds, two assists, one block, and a 22.5% usage rate when he was on the floor. He is a very active point guard, and his size will be needed in this matchup against the Nets. I love pairing both of these point guards on the slate tonight.
If Cunningham doesn’t play tonight, you can look to his teammate Killian Hayes for value at the point guard position.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum at Charlotte Hornets – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
With assuming Mike Conley is back from his rest day for the Utah Jazz, the top ceiling shooting guard on this slate is CJ McCollum. With Damien Lillard struggling out of the gates, McCollum has been leading the way for the Trail Blazers, averaging a career-high 24.2 points per game. Through five games, McCollum leads the Trail Blazers in usage rate with 30.1%.
This matchup against the Charlotte Hornets has the highest over/under on the slate at 230.5 points. This game will be a track meet. Both teams rank in the top five in pace this season, with the Trail Blazers leading the entire league. The spread is also super close. With only four games on the slate, a stack of this game makes sense in tournaments, and I would start that stack with McCollum leading the way.
McCollum is a much better play on DraftKings, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jalen Green at Los Angeles Lakers – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
We go from recommending the No. 1 overall pick, now on to the No. 2 overall pick in Jalen Green. This rookie has shown no fear since entering the league. Among the starters, Green has the highest usage rate at 24.8%. He has attempted the second-most field goals per game at 15. Now you factor in that his back-court partner Kevin Porter Jr. is questionable tonight, and Green will have every opportunity to light up the scoreboard in Staples Center.
If you are playing one of the Los Angeles Lakers stars, you will want to get Jalen Green in your lineup as a bring-back. If the game is tight, he will be one of the main reasons why. The Lakers are allowing the second most amount of points this season at 116.5 per game and have a putrid 111 Defensive Rating. They are also playing at the fourth-fastest pace while the Rockets have the second-fastest pace. If the Rockets can keep this game close, Green and the Rockets starters will need to be in your lineup tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $7,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Miles Bridges has been one of the best surprises this season. He lost 10 lbs this offseason just so he can play at a better weight alongside LaMelo Ball. Bridges struggled in their season opener, but in their last five games, he is averaging 28.0 points per game on 20.8 field goal attempts per game. The shot attempts are absurd. He is doubling his shot attempts from last season. Terry Rozier is expected back, so that may limit his attempts a little bit, but the upside is still there.
The matchup against the Trail Blazers is very juicy for Bridges tonight. The Trail Blazers lead the league in pace, which is perfect for this Hornets team who leads the league in points in transition with 27.2 per game. Bridges is a large part of that as he ranks eighth in the league in field goals made in the paint. He dunks everything he can and should be able to get plenty of opportunities tonight. He will get lost in the shuffle on a slate, begging you to go stars and scrubs.
Top Value: Joe Ingles at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Small forward remains one of the weaker positions on the slate. With only four games, the options are limited, but I do believe Joe Ingles provides some safety tonight. He does a little bit of everything for the Utah Jazz and seems to play better when the games are more competitive. At this price, Ingles makes for a safe play in cash games tonight. I would go elsewhere in tournaments to try and get a bigger upside play.
For what it is worth, in the one matchup he played against the Bucks last season, Ingles had 27 points on 8-11 shooting from the field as he buried seven 3-pointers. He added five assists and three rebounds as he went for 40.8 DraftKings points. Ingles is a sniper behind the arc. He was in the top five in 3-point percentage last season, shooting 45.1%. So far this season, he is averaging a career-high 46.7% shooting from downtown.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs Utah Jazz – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
We have to play the Greek Freak on Halloween, right? It would feel wrong not to. Giannis Antetokounmpo was once again in foul trouble last night. Something about the San Antonio Spurs causes Giannis to start hacking and charging people over. Luckily the Bucks do not play the Spurs for the rest of the season so that Giannis can stay out of foul trouble. He still managed 28 points and 13 rebounds, but only 46.75 DraftKings points. We need much more at that price tag.
In DFS, you need to forget about the last slate and think of today as a fresh slate. That can be tough to do at times, but Giannis makes for a great pay-up option again tonight. With the Lakers and Nets in double-digit spreads, the Bucks star is the safest option to spend your money. The over/under is the second-highest on the slate at 224.5 points. This will be the first back-to-back for the Bucks this season. Last season playing in the second game of a back-to-back, Giannis averaged 27.7 points per game, 13.7 rebounds per game, and seven assists per game. Spend up for the Greek Freak tonight.
Top Value: LaMarcus Aldridge vs Detroit Pistons – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Playing LaMarcus Aldridge always seems to be an adventure. Granted, he is 36 years old and retired last season before I assume James Harden and Kevin Durant begged him to come back. It has worked out for them as Aldridge is the third leading scorer on the Nets so far this season with 12 points per game. In two of the five games, Aldridge has scored over 20 points and over 30 DraftKings points. That is some very good upside at this price, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 76% Bargain Rating.
Aldridge is only center eligible on DraftKings but power forward and center eligible on FanDuel. The Nets will be without Nicolas Claxton and Paul Millsap for the game tonight. If there is ever a time to load up on Aldridge, tonight is the night. His minutes should be secured to play 25 or more tonight, especially if the Pistons find a way to keep it close. The Pistons are allowing the third-most defensive rebounds per game this season. That will help the floor for Aldridge, who is third on the team in rebounds this season.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The true monster on the glass Rudy Gobert has had a quietly dominant start to his season. Gobert leads the league in rebounds this season by 3.1 per game! He is averaging a career-high 18.0 rebounds per game while also adding in 17.8 points per game. He may be able to convert his free throws now, too, as he is averaging 70.5% from the charity stripe.
The Milwaukee Bucks are still without Brook Lopez tonight, so that means an undersized front-court with Giannis Antetokounmpo starting at center. Giannis is great, but Gobert has been dominating the middle of the paint for a while now. He won’t get any true post-up opportunities, but he will get fed dump-offs and crash the offensive glass. The Bucks just gave up five offensive rebounds to Thaddeus Young last night. Gobert might be in for his first Barbara Walters game of the season – 20 points and 20 rebounds.
Top Value: Alperen Sengun at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Going to another value play on the Houston Rockets tonight with center Alperen Sengun. The rookie from Turkey is extremely active whenever he gets minutes. Sengun is the direct back-up to Daniel Theis. If this game against the Lakers stays close, Sengun will probably play around 15-18 minutes. However, if this game blows out, Sengun can play upwards of 25 minutes. He is averaging over 1.1 DraftKings points per minute, so every minute matters.
This is the opposite play to Jalen Green tonight, who likely won’t play in a blowout. If you are playing Anthony Davis, LeBron James, or Russell Westbrook, do not play Alperen Sengun. However, if you are fading, the Lakers “Big Three” Sengun makes so much sense as a late-game hammer.
If you are loading up on the early games tonight, play Sengun and fade everyone else in this matchup. Root for a Lakers blowout as early as possible.
