The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Charlotte Hornets – $11,400 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
The point guard with the highest ceiling in our Tournament Model tonight is Stephen Curry. I’m not going to lie; the decision was difficult between Curry, James Harden, and LaMelo Ball. Yes, Ball has firmly entered the conversation. I went with Curry because the Warriors are favored in the highest game total on the slate at 225.5 points.
The environment is similar for Ball, obviously as well, but there is something about Curry trying to out-duel young PGs that has caught my eye recently. Curry just went for 40 points against Lonzo Ball. Earlier this season, he went for 50 points against Trae Young and 36 points against Ja Morant. The veteran likes to keep his young predecessors in check.
The price tag is high, and I would keep Curry to tournaments-only, but another 40-point game wouldn’t surprise me here.
Top Value: Anfernee Simons at Denver Nuggets – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
The first and probably best value play on the slate comes at point guard with Anfernee Simons. The Portland Trail Blazers will be without Damian Lillard tonight as he is out due to injury. Even with Lillard in the lineup, Simons has been playing much more this season than any other. The 4th-year guard is averaging a career-high in minutes with 22.6 per game and points with 11.9 per game.
Seeing that production doesn’t have me too concerned for what Simons did last year when Lillard sat out. In five games without Lillard last season, Simons averaged 22.85 DraftKings points per game while he played 24.6 minutes per game and had 12.6 points per game. I expect those numbers to increase. He has had a negative Plus/Minus in each of his last three games but was positive in nine of the previous 10 games.
He’s great for cash games and a near must in tournaments.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum at Denver Nuggets – $7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
From one Trail Blazers guard to the next, CJ McCollum is another fantastic play tonight. It is totally safe to play both McCollum and Simons in a lineup together. Lillard leads the Trail Blazers in usage rate with 28.2% and field goal attempts with 19.2 per game. That is a lot of production to go around, and McCollum and Simons will soak up a ton of it tonight.
In four games without Lillard last season, McCollum averaged 43.5 DraftKings points per game while he had a 33.8% usage rate as he attempted 25.0 field goals per game. He will get so many opportunities tonight; it is near impossible for him to fail. The only real concern is the matchup against the Denver Nuggets. They have the second-best Defensive Rating this season and are favored by 7.5 points playing at home, where they are historically very good.
However, I’ll side with the opportunities and price over this difficult matchup any day. Another great cash games play tonight.
Top Value: Eric Bledsoe vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
A great value who is really catching his stride right now has been Los Angeles Clippers guard Eric Bledsoe. He is averaging a +16.31 Plus/Minus in his last three games. That is honestly just an absurd number, especially for a player priced this cheap tonight. He has scored over 30 DraftKings points in each of those games.
The crazy part with Bledsoe is the usage rate isn’t even increasing. That is hard to do with a superstar on your team who I will get to shortly, but he is simply just getting more and more peripherals. Last night, Bledsoe only played 26 minutes and had 39.75 DraftKings points. He had 14 points, a season-high nine assists, five rebounds, two steals, and one block. Bledsoe makes for a great play on both sites, but especially DraftKings, where he has a 75% Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Chicago Bulls – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Eric Bledsoe was a Los Angeles Clippers player thriving lately, and now I’m on to Paul George, who has been doing the exact opposite. George has had a negative Plus/Minus in six straight games. After back-to-back games of 60 or more DraftKings points two weeks ago, George has only hit 50 DraftKings points in one game since then.
The upside still remains as high as it ever has, though, despite this less than ideal matchup against the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls rank seventh in Defensive Rating this season as they have allowed just 103.8 points per game. The usage rate for George is still incredibly high. George is second to Luka Doncic in usage rate this season with 34.3%. He has had a usage rate above 30% in EVERY game this season. He has yet to shoot fewer than 16 field goal attempts in a game all season.
The opportunities won’t leave, and that will provide George with a high ceiling whenever he takes the court.
Top Value: Jeff Green vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
The absence of Michael Porter Jr. has really opened the door for the 35-year old journeyman Jeff Green. Green has averaged 31 minutes per game in their last three games and has scored double digits in each game. He has been in the starting lineup in place of Porter Jr. and hasn’t disappointed with his extra minutes.
Green is still priced very low, especially on DraftKings, where he has an 83% Bargain Rating. Green has also had double-digit field goal attempts in three of his last four games. It certainly feels a little off to be playing such a veteran, but the minutes are there as well as the production. The Denver Nuggets are in win-now mode as they have won four straight games.
With no Porter Jr. and still no Jamal Murray, they have to do whatever they can, and that includes Jeff Green.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
It is always a tough decision on which Brooklyn Nets star to plug into your lineups; Kevin Durant or James Harden. Tonight, I tend to side with Durant on DraftKings because he is cheaper and Harden on FanDuel. The Nets are cooking right now as they have won seven of their last eight games. They end their six-game road trip tonight at the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Durant leads the Nets this season in points with 29.4 per game and rebounds with 8.4 per game. He is shooting a career-high 58.9% from the field, which is just inhuman for basically a perimeter player. This matchup against the Thunder shouldn’t scare Durant one bit even though this young Thunder team has won four straight. The Nets are 9-point favorites tonight, which is the highest on the slate, so the main concern here is a blowout.
Still, it is hard to ignore the upside Durant has.
Top Value: Alize Johnson at Los Angeles Clippers – $3,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
If you are dumpster diving on DraftKings tonight, it is pretty hard to get away from Alize Johnson, who has a 99% Bargain Rating. On FanDuel, Johnson is nearly unplayable due to his salary being $2,000 higher! The absence of Nikola Vucevic has opened the door for Johnson to be a great source of value. Vucevic is out for a while due to Covid-19.
In the Bulls’ last game without Vucevic, they started Tony Bradley at center with Johnson coming off the bench. Johnson played 21 minutes to Bradley’s 14 and was way more productive on the floor. Johnson finished with nine points and seven rebounds. Neither Johnson or Bradley even touched the floor in the fourth quarter as the Warriors were up 24 points after three quarters. The Bulls played Tyler Cook the entire fourth quarter, which was his first minutes all season.
I think that was more so a fluke, and I am trusting the Bulls to call on Johnson tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
With so many value plays on this slate, it makes the most sense to pay up for Nikola Jokic tonight. It also helps when some of the better value plays are already in this game, so playing Jokic can turn into a mini game stack of the Trail Blazers and Nuggets game. He is most intriguing on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating and 96% Opponent Rating.
There is no center even close to the same price range on this five-game slate. The next closest is Christian Wood, who is $3,000 cheaper on DraftKings and $3,200 cheaper on FanDuel. The opportunity cost in fading Jokic tonight is very risky. His ceiling is over 13 more points than the next closest center in our Tournament Model tonight. On FanDuel, the Milwaukee Bucks/Atlanta Hawks game is on the slate, so you’ll need to likely decide between Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Top Value: Frank Kaminsky at Houston Rockets – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
I suppose it is finally time to talk about at least one player on the Phoenix Suns who have the highest implied total on the slate at 115 points. Deandre Ayton is doubtful to play tonight as he has missed four straight games. They certainly aren’t as cheap as they once were, but Frank Kaminsky and JaVale McGee still provide value tonight, especially in this matchup against the Houston Rockets. Be sure to monitor our news dashboard to make sure Ayton is out, though.
Even though McGee is cheaper on both sites, I would much rather spend up and get Kaminsky in this matchup tonight. McGee will likely start once again if Ayton is officially ruled out, but Kaminsky is seeing more minutes and has been more productive. In the last four games, McGee is averaging 18.75 minutes per game, 8.75 points per game, and 6.5 rebounds per game. Kaminsky in those same four games, is averaging 27.5 minutes per game, 16.25 points per game, and 6.0 rebounds per game. He had 31 points against the Trail Blazers two nights ago. The upside is still high even at this price.
