The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox at Memphis Grizzlies – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Russell Westbrook is priced too high for me on DraftKings, even if LeBron James is out. I will gladly take the salary savings down to De’Aaron Fox as my preferred spend-up point guard tonight. FanDuel is a little different, but I still prefer Fox to Westbrook on this slate. Fox and the Sacramento Kings are coming off of a triple-OT thriller against the Los Angeles Lakers where Fox played a career-high 53 minutes! He had a career-high 32 field-goal attempts as he finished with 34 points, eight assists and six rebounds, which was good for 54.5 DraftKings points.
The worst defense in the league by a wide margin is the Memphis Grizzlies. They rank last in the league in Defensive Rating, as they have given up a league-high 116.4 points per game. This is a superb matchup for Fox and the Kings tonight. Just a warning, there are going to be several Kings players recommended tonight.
Note: On FanDuel, Malcolm Brogdon is certainly a great option at his $7,200 price tag.
The price tag on Jones shot up like crazy on DraftKings, but I still think he is in play. However, on FanDuel he is only $3,800 and has a 95% Bargain Rating. The Grizzlies defense is bad like I mentioned above, but the Kings defense isn’t much better. They rank 26th in Defensive Rating and have given up 112.4 points per game. The Grizzlies are even three-point favorites in this game, so don’t look past them in this matchup.
Top Value: Tyus Jones vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
It is not just the Sacramento side of this game that I like, but there is also value to go around on the Memphis side as well. Ja Morant will be out for the foreseeable future due to injury, so I would imagine they start Tyus Jones in his place; he has served as Morant’s direct backup all season long. According to our On/Off tool, Jones has played the most minutes with Morant off the floor this season with 237 minutes.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Fred VanVleet vs. Boston Celtics – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Fred VanVleet is the top ceiling shooting guard on the slate tonight. This spot could get even better if OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are not able to play tonight, as they are listed as questionable. The status of both is probably the biggest question mark on this short slate. Make sure to monitor their statuses before finishing your lineups tonight. They are the first game on the DraftKings slate, so we should hear news after shootaround.
VanVleet is always incredibly safe to play because he plays heavy minutes and is so active on the court. He leads the entire league in minutes at 38.1 per game and is second to Anunoby in points and usage rate this season. The Boston Celtics are a top-10 defense this season, but if Anunoby and Trent Jr. can’t play, you will definitely need to get to some of these Toronto Raptors players into your lineups. VanVleet is my favorite option of the bunch.
Top Value: Marcus Smart at Toronto Raptors – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The Boston Celtics will be playing without Dennis Schroder tonight. That opens up the door for a little more ball handling duty for Marcus Smart, who complained a few weeks ago that he wasn’t involved in the offense. Well, now is the time to prove his worth. Using our On/Off tool, Smart is tied with Al Horford seeing a usage rate increase of +6.1% without Schroder on the floor, while Smart has also played the most at 219 minutes this season.
Smart is second to VanVleet in our Tournament Model for the highest-rated shooting guard on DraftKings. He has been fantastic lately, even with everyone in the lineup healthy. Smart has had a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 10 games. Going with a balanced lineup and including Smart is a great option with not a lot of super-cheap value on the slate tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Toronto Raptors – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
I would prefer LeBron James in this spot if he was certain to play, but he has a questionable tag; I think this goes a little bit beyond just his injury considering the matchup with the Detroit Pistons and Isaiah Stewart. James might not even want to play, which leads me to Jayson Tatum as the best small forward play on the slate. Tatum could also be playing without Jaylen Brown, which would be a big boost to his production. Regardless, I like him tonight.
Tatum has an 83% Bargain Rating on FanDuel where he is below $10,000 for the first time in four slates. Tatum continues to play a healthy amount of minutes with a very high usage rate. He is third in the league in minutes at 36.6 per game. He also leads the DraftKings slate in usage rate with 32.5%, which is the sixth-highest in the league.
Note: On FanDuel, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the preferred top ceiling play.
Top Value: Buddy Hield at Memphis Grizzlies – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
It has been a while since we discussed a Sacramento Kings player, so let’s grab one here in Buddy Hield. He really struggled in their last game until late in the fourth quarter. Hield was the biggest beneficiary of the triple-OT game, as he scored 21 points while grabbing four rebounds and dishing out six assists for 44.5 DraftKings points.
With Harrison Barnes (doubtful) and Richaun Holmes (out) off the floor, per our On/Off tool Hield gets the biggest usage bump on the team with +5.3%. He has also played the most minutes without Barnes and Holmes on the floor with 145 this season. One thing I need to discuss with this game is the high total compared to the rest of the games. This over/under is 222.5 points, which is by far the highest on the slate. I love the Kings tonight. Add Hield to the mix.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Boston Celtics – $8,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
The second Toronto Raptors player that I want to get to tonight if OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are out is power forward Pascal Siakam. In his last six games back from injury and not being on a minutes limit, Siakam has had over a 20% usage rate in every game. He has also scored over 30 DraftKings points in every game except for one, with his highest output being 54 points where he had 25 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.
Siakam has definitely shown high-end upside and needs to be considered in this projected tight game. I would rather get to him on FanDuel where he has an 85% Bargain Rating. There he has also had a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last seven games. I would consider Siakam a top priority on this slate if Anunoby and Trent Jr. are both out.
Note: On FanDuel, Domantas Sabonis is the highest-rated power forward on the slate.
Top Value: Marvin Bagley III at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Oh look, another Sacramento Kings player! The Luke Walton firing has led to Marvin Bagley III actually playing basketball yet again. He even closes games out now, which makes him an even better value play. Bagley played 35 minutes in their last game and finished with 13 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. He shot a perfect 5-for-5 from the field, made one 3-pointer and added a 2-for-2 performance from the charity stripe.
Bagley came off of the bench last game, as the Kings started Chimezie Metu instead. It was interesting because Metu wasn’t even in the rotation for the previous two games before starting and playing 25 minutes last time out. I prefer Bagley due to his higher upside, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in the starting lineup soon as well. With Harrison Barnes likely to sit and Richaun Holmes already out, the time to buy in on Bagley is tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
I suppose it’s time to talk about a player from the nightcap on this slate with the Los Angeles Lakers and Detroit Pistons. After all, the Lakers are tied for the highest implied total at 112.75 points and are 10.5-point favorites at home against the Pistons. As I mentioned above, I don’t know if LeBron James will play, but Anthony Davis is my favorite spend-up on this slate regardless.
In their last meeting, Davis went absolutely bonkers, especially after James was ejected. Davis played 40 minutes and finished with 30 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, five blocks, and four steals for a ridiculous 70 DraftKings points. I don’t expect that type of performance again tonight, but his ceiling remains sky high. The only concern here is the high spread, but the Lakers have had trouble blowing teams out all year long. If James is ruled out, fire up as much Davis as you can handle. If James is in, I still think Davis makes for a great contrarian spend-up option.
Top Value: Isaiah Stewart at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
The highest-rated center on the slate tonight by a wide margin in our Tournament Model is Isaiah Stewart. He has a projected Plus/Minus of +7.04 in this matchup against the Lakers tonight. Foul trouble is always a concern for Stewart, but he has shown the upside at this price. He has a 79% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
This matchup against the Lakers is one that opposing teams have thrived in. The Lakers are second in the league in Pace this season and 18th in Defensive Rating. They have allowed 114.5 points per game, which is second most in the league. This line feels a little off. I know the Pistons are 4-15 this season, but the Lakers can’t blow any team out. In their 10 wins this season, they have a winning margin of only 5.8 points per game. I would put my money on the Pistons keeping this game close, and I think Stewart could get some revenge against the Lakers tonight.
Note: Isaiah Stewart is only PF-eligible on FanDuel.
