The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at Houston Rockets – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
The Grizzlies have catapulted to second in the Western Conference, as the Warriors have lost six of their last seven games. Ja Morant continues his incredible season, as he is averaging a career-high 27.7 points while shooting 49.7% from the field. He leads the slate in usage rate with 33.8% per game. Over the last four games, Morant is averaging 40.3 points while shooting 56.7% from the field and 53.8% from behind the arc. He is an extremely aggressive point guard who ranks third in drives per game.
What sets Morant above the rest of the pack is the Grizzlies’ incredible matchup against the Rockets. This game has the highest total on the slate, as the Grizzlies are implied for a slate-high 123.5 points. The Rockets rank last in defensive rating and first in pace, allowing a league-high 118 points per game. The Rockets also allow the second-most points scored in the paint with 51.5 per game. Morant leads the league in that category with 16.7 per game, yes, higher than Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Top Value: Devonte’ Graham at Denver Nuggets – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Since the All-Star Break, the Pelicans have won four-straight games and have climbed to the 10th seed in the Western Conference. Adding CJ McCollum has been huge, even if it meant moving Devonte’ Graham to the bench. Graham is still playing well over 20 minutes per game in competitive games, which provides really good value at his salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Pelicans are four-point underdogs on the road against the Nuggets tonight. This matchup is a little tough, as the Nuggets rank just outside the top 10 in defensive rating and points allowed per game. However, they have given up more points at home this season compared to on the road. Graham can get hot from the perimeter, and 68.7% of his field-goal attempts come from downtown. Value point guards are tough to find on this slate, but Graham is a cheap way to get exposure to this game.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
After a disappointing 34-point loss to the Pelicans, Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz look to bounce back on the road against the Thunder. Mitchell shot just 5-for-18 from the field in that game, scoring 14 points and 22 DraftKings points. Behind Morant, Mitchell ranks second on this slate in usage rate with 32.9% per game. He is averaging over 23 points per game for the fourth-straight season.
Despite their 20-43 record, the Thunder rank in the top 10 in both defensive rating and opponent’s field-goal percentage. However, they are playing without their best perimeter defender in Luguentz Dort. Usually where Mitchell pops the most is on FanDuel. Since coming back from a concussion, Mitchell has had a positive Plus/Minus in eight of 11 games. The salary is rising, but he still has an 85% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. The Jazz are heavy favorites, and Mitchell is a great bounce-back candidate.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson at Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Sticking with the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson is the top value shooting guard. Mike Conley is out tonight, which is a nice boost to Clarkson. Using our On/Off Tool, Clarkson leads the Jazz with the most minutes played with Conley off the floor this season. His usage rate increases by 3.1% and he has attempted 3.2 more field goals per game. Clarkson is already an aggressive player, but without Conley his upside increases. He is also averaging nearly five more minutes per game when Conley is not in the lineup.
Targeting Clarkson in potential blowouts can be a little risky because he normally doesn’t close them out and will continue to come off the bench. However, despite their injury concerns, the Thunder have been competitive in a few games lately, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Clarkson has the highest projected Plus/Minus among guards on both sites in our Tournament Model.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram at Denver Nuggets – $8,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
It took a little bit for Brandon Ingram to get comfortable playing alongside CJ McCollum, but I think he has found his sweet spot now. Ingram has averaged 27.3 points, 6.8 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game since the All-Star Break. During that time, he also has averaged a 31% usage rate and 44.9 DraftKings points per game. His assist numbers have risen, which increases his upside.
Adding a player like McCollum not only takes the pressure off of Ingram, but it also forces opponents to not focus all of their attention on Ingram. That has obviously helped out in a big way. Ingram is averaging a career-high 5.5 assists while still averaging 22.5 points per game. The Nuggets allow the eighth-most points in the paint, which could also benefit Ingram. He has done a much better job not settling for 3-point attempts, as he has shot two fewer per game this season than his last two seasons.
Top Value: Trent Forrest at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Back to the Jazz we go with another value play that is popping in our model with Trent Forrest. He is priced barely above the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Forrest will likely draw the start for Mike Conley, as our model has him projected to play 26 minutes tonight. That is exceptional playing time for a player priced this low. He is a great option in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
Forrest may not be the sexiest play, as his usage rate will more than likely stay in the teens, but it is hard not to run into fantasy points playing this many minutes. The good part about Forrest is he will likely start and be playing when the Jazz are in garbage time if this game blows out. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Jazz, who are 13.5-point favorites implied for 118.25 points tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
The big news for the past week with the Raptors has been the status of Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. Anunoby has already been ruled out, but we will need to monitor the status of VanVleet the closer we get to lock, as he is questionable to play tonight. VanVleet has missed four-straight games, and the Raptors are just 1-3 during that time. Using our On/Off Tool, Pascal Siakam averages a team-high 29.4% usage rate with VanVleet and Anunoby off the floor this season.
The downfall to this game is this total is by far the lowest on the slate at 210.5 points, and the Raptors are five-point road underdogs. The Cavaliers rank fourth in defensive rating, allowing a league-best 103.3 points per game. Their interior defense is fantastic. However, we know the minutes for Siakam will be there. He is second to VanVleet in most minutes played per game this season. Siakam should be prioritized on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating at his cheap $8,100 price tag.
Top Value: Jaxson Hayes at Denver Nuggets – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The increased playing time for Jaxson Hayes has obviously been a very good move for the Pelicans. Playing Hayes alongside Jonas Valanciunas has also limited his foul trouble. The Pelicans will likely elect to play Valanciunas against Nikola Jokic, which should free up Hayes to potentially get a weakside block or two. Hayes has recorded at least one block in four-straight games.
Having Hayes as power-forward-eligible on both sites will increase his ownership, but it is deserving. He is projected to have the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings. The Pelicans side is obviously very interesting tonight, as Hayes is the third Pelicans player recommended in this article. Similar to Graham, Hayes is a cheap way to get exposure to New Orleans. He has had over 20 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games and we have seen upside for way more.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at New Orleans Pelicans – $12,600 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
By far the most expensive player on this slate is Nikola Jokic. He has the highest ceiling and gets a great matchup against the Pelicans. Jokic missed last game due to an illness, but maybe that is just what he needed to bounce back. Since the All-Star Break, he is only averaging 53.9 DraftKings points per game. The addition of DeMarcus Cousins has really hampered his upside. In the last three games playing alongside each other, Cousins has averaged a 31.8% usage rate compared to just 23.9% for Jokic.
It is only a matter of time until Jokic gets back to his incredibly high ceiling. However, the salary on DraftKings is still very difficult to get too. FanDuel is where Jokic remains a priority, as he has a 98% Bargain Rating even though he has a negative Plus/Minus in his last four games. It may make more sense to go to a balanced build on DraftKings and a stars-and-scrubs build on FanDuel.
Top Value: Olivier Sarr vs. Utah Jazz – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Another value play that is priced barely above the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Thunder rookie center Olivier Sarr. He is projected to have the best projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the third-best on FanDuel. He is a rookie from the Kentucky Wildcats, who have produced plenty of upside-caliber centers. The Thunder will be without Derrick Favors and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, which will provide around 20 minutes for Sarr. He will still come off the bench, but there is value here.
The Jazz love to play a center all 48 minutes, whether that is Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside, or Udoka Azubuike. That will force the Thunder to likely play Isaiah Roby and Sarr 48 minutes as well. If Roby were to get in foul trouble at all against Gobert, we could see even more minutes for Sarr tonight. The Jazz allowed 58 points in the paint in their last game, so there is also upside as well.
