The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Russell Westbrook vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $10,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
It has been a long time since I have recommended Russell Westbrook, but tonight is the night. His salary has come down to a reasonable number, especially on FanDuel. Even though his 4.6 turnovers per game hurt him there, Westbrook’s price tag has him as a 98% Bargain Rating. Westbrook has been playing better recently. He has a triple-double in four of his last seven games. He should contend for another triple-double tonight.
With so many injury concerns at the top of the point guard position, I think Westbrook may be the best option at the top. Stephen Curry has been struggling worse than Westbrook and Luka Doncic is questionable. Using our On/Off tool, Westbrook has played the most minutes on the Lakers with Anthony Davis off the floor. During that time, he has increased his usage rate by 1.7%. He is risky, but he still has upside.
Top Value: Tyus Jones at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
I am operating under the assumption that Ja Morant will be out for the second consecutive game since this is a back-to-back. Tyus Jones is the best value play on the slate, according to our model for both sites. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus with the most Points/Salary. Not only that, but Jones also is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate while being projected to play 33 minutes tonight.
Playing against the Lakers with how they are constructed right now makes for a fantastic matchup. They are second in the league in pace this season, as this game has the second-highest total on the slate at 226 points. In 13 games without Morant this season, Jones is averaging 30.5 minutes, 10.6 points, and 6.0 assists per game. His usage rate increases as well. Make sure Morant is out again, then fire up Jones.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Fred VanVleet vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Seeing Fred VanVleet priced over $10,000 on DraftKings may come as a sticker-shock, but it is very deserving. VanVleet has been absolutely incredible lately. He is coming off of the first triple-double of his career, where he had 37 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists against the Jazz. He has had over 53 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. During that time VanVleet, is averaging 57.1 DraftKings points per game.
This matchup against the Pelicans provides even more upside for VanVleet tonight. They rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season and have allowed their opponents to shoot 47.0% from the field, which is the third-worst in the league. They also allow 37.1% from three-point range, which is second-worst. VanVleet is second in the league to Curry for made 3-pointers with 3.7 per game. VanVleet should fill it up again tonight.
Note: Fred VanVleet is only PG-eligible on FanDuel.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell at Portland Trail Blazers – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Another player who looks good right now, but will look even better with an injured player being out. That would be Davion Mitchell. De’Aaron Fox is currently listed as questionable right now with a shoulder injury. Monitor the status of Fox throughout the day, but Mitchell could be one of the best plays on the slate if he were to sit. Mitchell has been struggling recently, but we have seen the upside in his game.
Playing against the Trail Blazers can help anyone’s upside as well. They rank dead last in Defensive Rating, as they allow opponents to shoot a league-high 47.9% from the field. Mitchell is already projected to play 25 minutes with Fox in, but if he gets ruled out, Mitchell will likely see minutes in the 30s. He is only PG-eligible on FanDuel, but just play Jalen Brunson on FanDuel at his absurd price with or without Luka Doncic.
Note: Davion Mitchell is only PG-eligible on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
LeBron James is playing at an elite level and it is paying off. The Lakers have won four straight games and come into this game as three-point home favorites. With no Anthony Davis, James has had to take on more of the scoring load. He has had over 30 points in nine of his last 10 games to catapult himself to second in the league in scoring, averaging 28.7 points per game. In those 10 games, James is averaging 63.6 DraftKings points per game.
The Lakers have been very good recently, but the Grizzlies have been incredible for over a month now. They have won eight straight games and 18 of their last 24. They rank in the top 10 in Defensive Rating, but without Morant they may struggle. Even though he is the highest-priced player on FanDuel, James has proven he is worth the price tag. He has had a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of his last eight games.
Top Value: Harrison Barnes at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
The second Kings player that our model loves tonight is Harrison Barnes, another player who may depend on the status of De’Aaron Fox. Using our On/Off tool, with Fox off the floor this season, Barnes is tied for the team lead with +2.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 260 minutes. In the four games that Fox has missed this season, Barnes has seen an increase in playing time to 38.4 minutes while scoring 17.8 points per game.
Barnes is second on the Kings in scoring this season with 16.3 points and is shooting a career-high 41.8% from behind the arc. That is where the Trail Blazers struggle the most. They have allowed 13.7 made three-pointers per game, which is tied for fourth-most in the league. This matchup is fantastic and is a great spot for Barnes to bounce back from his poor recent play. Barnes looks much better if Fox is out tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Dallas Mavericks – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Picking a top-ceiling power forward on this slate is extremely difficult, but with DeMar DeRozan listed at power forward on DraftKings, we’ll go with him! He has by far the highest ceiling for power forwards on DraftKings. The Bulls are rolling right now with the longest current winning streak of nine games. DeRozan continues to lead the Bulls in points with 26.5 and usage rate with 31.1% per game.
It’s a little surprising the Bulls are only three-point road favorites against the Mavericks tonight. The Mavericks play at an extremely slow pace, which is why this game total is the third-lowest on the slate at 218.5 points. They allow only 103.4 points per game. Playing that slow certainly isn’t ideal, but DeRozan can fill it up in a hurry. He has averaged a 37.2% usage rate in his last four games. He is the Bull that I am targeting tonight.
Note: DeMar DeRozan is listed as SG/SF-eligible on FanDuel.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Brandon Clarke is now firmly in the Grizzlies rotation and proving that he is there to stay. Since returning from injury, Clarke has been a major contributor. Over his last five games, Clarke is averaging 15.0 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. He is coming off of a double-double with 18 points and 15 rebounds last night against the Clippers. The most he has played during that time is 28 minutes. He may get even more tonight.
As previously mentioned, this matchup against the Lakers is one that opposing teams can take advantage of. James is still starting at center, which makes me more intrigued to get to Clarke tonight as the Grizzlies will likely match their small-ball lineups. Our model has Clarke as the best value option at power forward. He has averaged a +12.9 FanDuel Plus/Minus in his last five games. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Oklahoma City Thunder – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic still remains the highest priced player on DraftKings, but he’s been passed by LeBron James on FanDuel. However, he still has the highest ceiling on the slate for both sites. The price tag for Jokic on FanDuel continues to decrease even though he has had a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his last 15 games. He comes in as a 95% Bargain Rating and seems to be projected for lower ownership than he should be.
Jokic has had some cupcake matchups lately and tonight is no different. The Thunder rank 24th in Rebounding Percentage this season, while Jokic continues to average the second-most rebounds with 14.1 per game. Playing against the Thunder’s frontcourt should be a field day for Jokic. Battling against Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and a questionable Derrick Favors for 35 minutes seems pretty appetizing.
Top Value: Jusuf Nurkic vs. Sacramento Kings – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Jusuf Nurkic is a little more than most of the value plays I normally recommend, but he has the highest projected Plus/Minus among centers in our model tonight for both sites. The Trail Blazers continue to play without Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Using our On/Off tool, Nurkic has a team-high +6.7% usage rate and a +6.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus without Lillard and McCollum on the floor this season.
Since returning from the COVID protocols, Nurkic is averaging a double-double with 16.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game in his last three games. The key for Nurkic is always his minutes. He has played over 30 minutes in six of his last eight games. This matchup against the Kings is very favorable to opposing centers as well. The Kings allow the most points in the paint this season with 53.4 per game.
