The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Charlotte Hornets – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Despite the Hawks’ struggles this season, Trae Young has been incredible. He has averaged 27.9 points, which ranks fifth in the NBA, and 9.4 assists per game, which ranks third in the league. He is second in the entire league averaging a career-high 35.0% usage rate per game. Young has been extremely aggressive lately. He has shot 37-for-40 from the free-throw line in his past three games.
Young and the Hawks get a juicy matchup Sunday against the Hornets, who rank second in pace and 25th in defensive rating. This game has a total of 236.5 points with the Hawks as three-point home favorites implied to score 119.75 points. There are so many studs on this slate, especially at the point guard position. Prioritize Young in this fantastic spot against the Hornets.
Top Value: Cole Anthony vs. Chicago Bulls – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Since Jalen Suggs has returned to action five games ago, Cole Anthony has taken a back seat. He has yet to have a game where he scored 30 or more DraftKings points. However, the price tag on Anthony, especially on FanDuel, has taken a major hit. He has dropped $2,000 in just the last two games! He has a 95% Bargain Rating and comes in as the best projected Plus/Minus value option on FanDuel tonight.
The minutes for Anthony are still there despite his recent struggles. He has averaged 28.6 minutes in his last five games, but our model has Anthony projected to play 32 minutes tonight. He still has a 26.5% usage rate, and if his jump shot is falling, the ceiling is there. With the Bulls’ backcourt injuries, their defense has struggled. Anthony provides plenty of value, but prioritize him on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
FanDuel has moved James Harden to SG/SF-eligible, while DraftKings has kept him as only PG-eligible. His salary remains extremely high, but Harden has shown elite upside without Kevin Durant in the lineup. In eight games without Durant this season, Harden has increased his points by 8.7 per game and usage rate by 7.2% per game. Harden is coming off of his sixth game scoring over 70 DraftKings points this season.
This matchup between the Nets and Timberwolves features the highest game total on the slate at 238.5 points. The Nets are two-point road underdogs with a 118.25 implied total. The Timberwolves rank fourth in pace this season, while the Nets rank 10th. This game environment suits Harden’s skill set perfectly. There will be a ton of opportunity for Harden to showcase his ceiling in this matchup.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey at San Antonio Spurs – $6,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Tyrese Maxey is one of those players who is rarely going to come off the floor when he is in the lineup. Since returning from the COVID protocols, Maxey has averaged 38.3 minutes per game in his last six games. The 76ers are forced to play Maxey heavy minutes again tonight, as they are without fellow guards Shake Milton and Seth Curry. Maxey will be running the show all night long.
Not only has Maxey played a ton of minutes, but he has had a positive Plus/Minus in four out of his last five games. During that time he is averaging 17.4 points while attempting 13 field goals per game. Despite handling the ball a ton without Milton and Curry in the lineup, Maxey has only two turnovers in his last six games. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 25-to-2 during that time. The price tag is up, but the value is still there.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
The obvious choice here would be LeBron James, but taking the savings with Jimmy Butler is intriguing, especially with Anthony Davis likely coming back tonight. If Butler can stay in this game without getting ejected like he did against the Trail Blazers, he should thrive in this matchup. He is coming off of a triple-double just three games ago and nearly had another one last game against the Hawks.
The Lakers present a very good matchup with or without Davis in the lineup. They rank third in pace and fourth in points allowed with 112.7 per game. The Heat are four-point home favorites in what should be a fantastic game tonight. With no Tyler Herro or Kyle Lowry in the lineup, the Heat will lean on Butler for most of the ball-handling duties. His usage should be very high in an awesome matchup.
Top Value: Joe Ingles at Golden State Warriors – $4,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
With Donovan Mitchell still out, the Jazz become another source of value tonight. This matchup isn’t quite as good as playing against the Rockets and Pistons, but this spread is super close and the game total is very respectable at 221.5 points as the Jazz travel to play the Warriors. Joe Ingles has started the last two games and has played over 30 minutes in both games. He is projected for 32 minutes tonight.
With so many studs to pay up for on this slate, getting to Ingles in this spot provides great value. Ingles can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways. In his last two games, he is averaging 7.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. The Warriors defense isn’t as scary without Draymond Green. In 12 games without Green in the lineup this season, the Warriors defensive rating has dropped from 101.9 to 107.8. Value is still there for the Jazz, but our model suggests you start with Ingles.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Orlando Magic – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
The injuries are really starting to take a toll for the Bulls backcourt. They will be without Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso. That will open the door for all of the usage and playing time that DeMar DeRozan can handle. Our Tournament Model has DeRozan with the highest ceiling by a wide margin on DraftKings. His price remains very affordable in a fantastic road matchup against the Magic.
DeRozan continues to lead the Bulls is scoring, averaging 26.0 points per game. In his last four games, he has had to really increase that number and is averaging 28.0 points per game with a 35.1% usage rate. DeRozan has also had to take the ball-handling reigns. He has had seven or more assists in six of his last nine games. Despite the record differences, this game should be very competitive. The Magic rank 26th in defensive rating this season, so this is a great time to target the high-usage DeRozan tonight.
Top Value: Georges Niang at San Antonio Spurs – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Another 76ers value play that is popping in our model is forward Georges Niang. Not only are Milton and Curry out, but so are forwards Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle. Niang is projected to play 28 minutes in a matchup that I obviously love against the Spurs. Furkan Korkmaz is another value option, but I prefer Niang because he provides more peripherals. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games.
The usage rate for Niang will likely remain in the high teens, but he can fill up the stat sheet and provide a lot of 3-point looks. Over the past four games, 80.1% of Niang’s field-goal attempts have come from behind the arc. He is second to Curry with 2.0 made 3-pointers per game. He likely won’t win you the slate, but Niang is arguably the best option in a stars-and-scrubs build that will be popular tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at San Antonio Spurs – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Deciding between Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic is getting more and more difficult each time they are on the same slate together. Believe it or not, Embiid now has the highest usage rate in the entire league at 35.5% per game. Over the last four games, Embiid has shown elite upside. He has averaged 38.5 points while shooting 60% from the field. During that time he has a usage rate of 44.3%!
The Spurs present a great matchup for opposing centers. They allow 49.9 points per game in the paint while also allowing 47.7 rebounds per game, which both rank as the fourth-most in the league. Another benefit for Embiid and the 76ers is that the Spurs rank fifth in pace this season. Embiid has massive upside in this matchup, which has a very close spread and a healthy 222.5-point total.
Top Value: Mo Bamba vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Standing out in a class of his own in our model for center value is Mo Bamba. Our model has Bamba projected to play only 27 minutes tonight, but he is projected for the highest Plus/Minus among all of the centers on the slate. Over the last two games, Bamba is shooting the lights out. He is averaging 21.5 points per game while shooting 68% from the field and 67% from behind the arc.
The Bulls have been an average defense since their hot start. They have dealt with a ton of injuries and now rank 21st in points per game allowed in the paint. Bamba has shown he can deliver from the perimeter as well, hitting eight 3-pointers in his last two games. Fellow frontcourt teammate Wendell Carter Jr. is back for the Magic, but Bamba’s shot blocking keeps his ceiling high. He has averaged 2.1 blocks per game this season, which ranks fourth in the entire league. If paying down at center, get to Bamba tonight.
