The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Atlanta Hawks – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Luka Doncic has taken his game to a new level recently. He has scored over 70 DraftKings points in three straight games. During that time, Doncic is averaging a massive triple-double with 35.7 points, 12.0 assists, and 10.3 rebounds per game. He also has averaged a 38.9% usage rate and has attempted 27.7 field goals per game. Doncic is second in the league in usage rate, averaging 35.9% per game.
The Mavericks are three-point home favorites as they welcome in the Hawks, who rank 27th in defensive rating this season. Playing without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. has allowed Doncic to reach an even higher ceiling lately. During that four-game stretch, Doncic has also averaged a +12.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus. This is a great matchup to target the high upside of Doncic.
Top Value: Kevin Porter Jr. vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
An illness made Kevin Porter Jr. leave last game, so this may be a little risky, but he is not on the injury report for tonight. Porter Jr. has been very good recently, and this price tag on DraftKings is too low. He is the best value point guard on the board, as he has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Over the last seven games, Porter Jr. is averaging 17.1 points, 8.3 assists, and 35.9 DraftKings points per game.
This matchup between the Rockets and Pelicans features the highest total on the slate at 231.5 points. This game should be filled with fantasy goodness. The Pelicans rank 21st in defensive rating this season, allowing 109.4 points per game. Porter Jr. continues to lead the Rockets in usage rate with 23.9%. Prioritize Porter Jr. on DraftKings at his very affordable mid-range salary.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram at Houston Rockets – $8,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
After returning from injury, Brandon Ingram has had back-to-back promising games. He has averaged 24.5 points and 46.6 DraftKings points per game. Despite being the third-most expensive shooting guard on DraftKings, Ingram leads the way in our Tournament Model in ceiling projection. When he gets it going from the perimeter, Ingram can put up monster numbers.
Playing against the Rockets always features the best possible matchup. They rank last in defensive rating and first in pace this season. The Rockets allow a league-high 117 points per game, which is a wide margin from the next closest team. They continue to bring up the rear in the Western Conference, as this young team just cannot defend. Ingram should feast in this matchup.
Top Value: Jalen Green vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Sticking with this same game environment, Jalen Green has a chance for another big game at his cheap salary. Eric Gordon was also intriguing, but Green has simply played much better than Gordon and we know he is in the plans moving forward for this Rockets team. Green is actually third on the team in usage rate and second in minutes and field-goal attempts. He is a very aggressive player.
Where Green can take advantage of the Pelicans defense is from behind the arc. They allow the second-highest percentage from behind the arc at 36.8%. Green is second on the Rockets with 6.1 3-point attempts per game. He is shooting just 29.5% from downtown, but the volume is there for a potentially massive game. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Rockets tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Orlando Magic – $10,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
The Celtics have finally gotten into a groove lately, winning 11 of their last 15 games in large part due to the play of Jayson Tatum. This is mentioned every time Tatum is in this article, but he is a very boom-or-bust player and is tough to avoid, especially in this matchup. Tatum is tied for the seventh-highest usage rate in the league. Prioritize Tatum on FanDuel, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating.
The Celtics are the largest favorite on the slate at 9.5 points. However, this game total is the lowest on the slate at 215.5 points, mainly due to the Celtics playing at the 24th slowest pace this season. The Magic rank 23rd in defensive rating. They allow opponents to shoot 34.6% from behind the arc, which is perfect for Tatum who is averaging 4.3 3-pointers made per game in his last seven games.
Top Value: Isaac Okoro vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Isaac Okoro is one of those players who plays a ton of minutes but has a ridiculously low usage rate. He can have a ceiling game sporadically in certain matchups. Despite only having one game where he has scored over 22 FanDuel points, he has had a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven straight games. His price tag still remains incredibly cheap, as he is a good source of value on this slate.
Darius Garland and Lauri Markkanen are both questionable, but they will affect other players more than Okoro due to his low usage rate. The Pacers present a great matchup, as they rank 26th in defensive rating. They may also be getting healthier with Malcolm Brogdon possibly returning. There is a lot of news to monitor for this game, but Okoro will be playing heavy minutes regardless of who is playing.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Los Angeles Clippers – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
The Milwaukee Bucks absolutely blew out the Trail Blazers last night by 29 points resulting in only 25 minutes for Giannis Antetokounmpo. In those minutes, Giannis still had 29 points, nine rebounds, and six assists for 52.8 DraftKings points. The Bucks are only 4.5-point favorites against the Clippers, which is a perfect ceiling opportunity for Giannis to showcase his skill set.
This matchup also has the second-highest total on the slate at 228 points. Our model has Giannis with the highest ceiling on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. He is actually cheaper than Doncic on FanDuel, which is resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating. Prioritize Giannis on FanDuel with steals and blocks counting for more, but he is a great play regardless.
Top Value: Al Horford at Orlando Magic – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Veteran Al Horford is coming in as one of the best values at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. After a few poor games, Horford has finally starting to get his confidence back. Over the last three games, Horford is averaging eight points and 10.3 rebounds per game. He has nine double-doubles this season, which provides a good amount of upside at his salary tonight.
A potential big loss to the Magic frontcourt is Mo Bamba being questionable. Usually a mid-day questionable tag is never a good sign that player suits up. With Bamba out of the lineup this season, the Magic have seen a dip in both their defensive rating and rebounding percentage. Horford is a great mid-range play, despite the total for this game being the lowest on the slate.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jonas Valanciunas at Houston Rockets – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Jonas Valanciunas is another Pelicans player who could dominate in this matchup against the Rockets. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is popping the most. Since returning from a non-COVID illness, Valanciunas has averaged a near double-double with 15.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per game over his last three games. He is slowly getting back into form.
As I mentioned, this matchup against the Rockets is awesome, especially at the center position. The Rockets allow the second-most points in the paint this season with 50.8 per game. They gave up a ridiculous 68 points in the paint in their last game against the Spurs. Valanciunas should dominate the paint, as the Rockets don’t really have the size to contend with him in the lane.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Boston Celtics – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
The highest-rated player in our model tonight for DraftKings is Wendell Carter Jr. He is in the top value section because of how cheap he is compared to the other centers on the slate, especially on DraftKings. Carter Jr. has been incredible recently. Since coming back from injury, Carter Jr. is averaging 15.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 34.3 DraftKings points per game over his last eight games.
As I previously mentioned, the Magic could be playing without Mo Bamba tonight. That hasn’t affected the production of Carter Jr. too much this season, but it should solidify his playing time. The Magic being in so many blowouts has affected the minutes for Carter Jr., which has kept his salary in check. This is another massive spread, but there is upside with how well he has been playing.
