Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position and looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at Sacramento Kings – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
My favorite point guard on the slate tonight is Ja Morant. The price tag on both sites is not enough for a healthy Morant in this matchup against the Kings. Since coming back from injury, Morant has scored 18.5 points per game, dished seven assists per game and grabbed 4.5 rebounds per game. He played 28 minutes in his first game back and 31 in their most recent game. The Grizzlies haven’t played since Thursday, so Morant should be well-rested.
The Kings continue to be one of the best matchups for opposing guards. They play at the fifth-fastest pace and rank 28th in Defensive Rating. The Kings allow 114 points per game, which is the second-highest in the league. The Grizzlies have to be one of the healthiest teams. They have the highest implied total on the slate at 115.75 points, with this game having the highest total at 230.5 points. Morant makes for one of the best plays tonight.
Top Value: Dalano Banton at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
To say our model loves Dalano Banton tonight would be an understatement. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings tonight at +19.45, which is an absurd number. The Raptors have eight available players today and a very inexperienced team. Our model has Banton projected to play 36 minutes, along with the highest ownership on the slate. His salary is way too cheap regardless of this difficult matchup against the Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers continue to be a defensive juggernaut. The Pistons have an implied total of 98.5 points tonight which is the lowest on the slate. The Cavaliers rank third in Defensive Rating and they have only allowed 101.4 points per game which is the second-best in the league. Despite the difficult matchup, Banton is far too cheap and makes for one of the top plays on the slate. He is a must-play in cash games at this high ownership.
Note: Dalano Banton is only PF-eligible on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Indiana Pacers – $10,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
It has been quite awhile since we have seen Zach LaVine on the floor. He was in the COVID protocol and hasn’t played in a game since December 11th, which is over two weeks ago. LaVine was absolutely dominant before he was placed in the protocol. In his last six games, LaVine averaged 28.5 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, and 6.2 assists per game. He also averaged 46.9 DraftKings points per game and never had a game below 40.
Where I really want to get my exposure is on FanDuel. LaVine has had a positive Plus/Minus in five out of his last six games on FanDuel and has a 98% Bargain Rating. The Bulls are fairly healthy, which is tough to say these days. However, he still has a 30.2% usage rate while scoring 26 points per game. The Bulls are seven-point favorites at home tonight with a game total of 218.5 points. This is a great spot to get to LaVine, especially on FanDuel.
Top Value: Frank Jackson at San Antonio Spurs – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
The Detroit Pistons are very limited with options tonight, and they travel to San Antonio to take on the Spurs as 11.5-point underdogs. At the guard position, Cade Cunningham and Cory Joseph are in the COVID protocol. That will provide as many minutes for Frank Jackson as he can handle. Our model has Jackson projected to play 38 minutes tonight. In their last game, he played 39 minutes and finished with 31 DraftKings points.
The Spurs rank seventh in pace this season while the Pistons rank 13th. Despite how ugly this game could be, the total is 219.5 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. Even if this game gets out of hand, Jackson will be playing due to the limited bodies for the Pistons. He makes for an extremely safe cash-game play.
Note: Frank Jackson is only PG-eligible on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
This matchup between the Thunder and Pelicans features two of the worst teams in the Western Conference. However, we can find some plays on the Pelicans side due to their injury situation. They will be without Jonas Valanciunas and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Brandon Ingram is the Pelicans piece that stands out the most to me. He leads the team in points with 23.8 per game, assists with five per game, and usage rate with 29.5% per game.
Ingram has been on an absolute tear lately, especially on FanDuel. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in 11-straight games! During those 11 games, he has averaged a ridiculous 27.6 points per game while having a 29.8% usage rate. Ingram has also attempted 20 or more field goals in six of his last nine games. This game features the closest spread on the slate, and I think Ingram is in store for a big night on the road.
Top Value: Hamidou Diallo at San Antonio Spurs – $5,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
If you are interested in fading the ownership of Frank Jackson, I would recommend spending a little more on both sites to get Hamidou Diallo into your lineups. Diallo is a player who can light up the scoreboard in a hurry if he gets going. He is another Pistons player who will see an increase in usage rate and minutes tonight.
Diallo has played 34 minutes in back-to-back games and has scored double figures in seven of his last eight games. He has also shown rebounding and steals upside, as he has recorded 6.3 rebounds per game and 2.3 steals per game in his last three games. The Pistons may not keep this game competitive, but Diallo will be firing up many field goal attempts to try to keep them in it. I prefer Diallo as more of a high-upside tournament play.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Chicago Bulls – $10,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
There are not a lot of expensive power forward options on the slate tonight, so Domantas Sabonis stands out in a class of his own. Sabonis is another incredible option on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. Sabonis is currently listed as questionable to play tonight, so keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock.
The Sabonis rollercoaster has been a wild ride this season. He has turned into a very boom-or-bust fantasy player. The last two games have been a major bust. He has scored just 12 points per game while playing 28 and 31 minutes. However, in his previous eight games, Sabonis has recorded a double-double in each game. On the season, Sabonis has a double-double in 23 of his 32 games played. If he can’t play, get to as much Myles Turner as you can.
Top Value: Chris Boucher at Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
The price tag on Chris Boucher is starting to increase rapidly, but he is still too cheap for the opportunity he will get tonight. As I mentioned before, the Raptors are extremely short-handed. Boucher is the second Raptors player I want to get exposure to. Our model has Boucher as the highest-rated player on the slate.
Boucher is projected to play a season-high 36 minutes tonight, which makes him pop out like crazy. He has always been a relatively high points-per-minute player, but his usage rate should skyrocket tonight due to all of the Raptors inactive players. Boucher has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, as he has averaged 12.7 points per game and 7.2 rebounds per game. The matchup is tough, but Boucher has a lot of upside tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Los Angeles Clippers – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
The most expensive player and highest ceiling on both sites tonight is Nikola Jokic. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as Jokic leads the Nuggets in points, rebounds, assists, steals, AND blocks. He does everything for this team. Jokic continues to average a career-high 1.81 DraftKings points per minute and is projected to play 34 minutes tonight.
Jokic and the Nuggets have a great rebounding matchup tonight. The Clippers rank 27th in rebounding percentage, as they allow 47 rebounds per game. They also are tied for the most offensive rebounds allowed at 11.5 per game. With so much value on the slate, Jokic is easy to get to on this slate and will be very popular.
Top Value: Willy Hernangomez at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Arguably the best value on the slate tonight is Pelicans center Willy Hernangomez. As I mentioned before, the Pelicans will be without Jonas Valanciunas, which will insert Hernangomez into the starting lineup. He started last game and played 32 minutes while recording three points and a season-high 16 rebounds. The three points came on shooting just 1-for-11 from the field, while the 11 field goal attempts were a season high.
Similar to Jokic above, this is a great rebounding spot for Hernangomez. The Thunder have allowed 37.7 defensive rebounds per game, which is the most in the entire league. He has the second highest-usage this season among the healthy Pelicans players behind Brandon Ingram. I am banking on Hernangomez scoring more than three points tonight and flirting with a double-double. He looks awesome on both sites tonight!
