The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position and looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Memphis Grizzlies – $9,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
We hit massively on Fred Van Vleet last night, so let’s see if we can hit another top-ceiling point guard tonight in Damian Lillard. Since returning from injury, Lillard has been electric for the struggling Trail Blazers, who have lost 10 of their last 12 games. In his four games since returning, Lillard has averaged 29.8 points per game and seven assists per game. He has also made 19 3-pointers during that stretch.
Lillard came back at the perfect time, as his backcourt mate CJ McCollum is still out due to injury. His usage rate has spiked from 28.0% to 33.2%, as he has attempted nearly four more field goals per game. Lillard is scoring 8.3 more points per game with McCollum not in the lineup this season! I love Lillard on both sites tonight, but especially on FanDuel where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Ricky Rubio at Atlanta Hawks – $5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Our best point guard value on the slate is Ricky Rubio. The Cavaliers have won six straight games and 10 of their last 12. Using our model, Rubio has a projected Plus/Minus of +7.59 in this matchup against the Hawks tonight. Rubio started the second half in their game last night for Lamar Stevens, was second on the team in minutes and scored 44.75 DraftKings points.
Over the last four games, Rubio is averaging 11 points per game, eight assists per game, and a crazy 2.75 steals per game. Regardless of if he starts or not, our model has Rubio projected to play 30 minutes tonight. The Hawks rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season, and they have allowed 110 points per game. Rubio is more appealing on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating.
Editor’s note: Cavs-Hawks has been postponed. Be sure to check the Player Models for real-time updates.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham vs. Miami Heat – $8,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
We’re going to cheat the system a little bit and put Cade Cunningham as our top ceiling shooting guard because he has shooting guard eligibility on both sites. The No. 1 Pick in the draft is really starting to turn it on lately for the Pistons. They have lost 14 straight games and have the worst record in the league at 4-24, but at least it seems like they hit a home run with Cunningham!
It could be because he is getting more comfortable or the fact that Pistons’ leading scorer Jerami Grant has been out due to injury, but Cunningham is stepping up in a big way. Over the last three games with Grant out, he is averaging 22 points per game, seven rebounds per game and seven assists per game. Far better than his season averages. Cunningham has scored over 50 DraftKings points in two out of his last three games. The upside is there, despite the Heat playing very slow this season.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Targeting a player against the Cavaliers is something I usually don’t recommend. The Cavaliers rank second in Defensive Rating and have allowed only 101.1 points per game, which is tied with the Warriors for the fewest amount of points given up. The main reason to get to Kevin Huerter tonight is Trae Young has entered the Covid protocols. Huerter will likely be moved to point guard in the Hawks starting lineup.
Using our On/Off tool, with Young off of the floor this season Huerter leads the Hawks with a +6.0% usage rate bump in 156 minutes. Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable tonight after missing eight straight games. If he is out, that will make Huerter look even better in this spot.
Editor’s note: Cavs-Hawks has been postponed. Be sure to check the Player Models for real-time updates.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Chicago Bulls – $10,800 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The 36-year old LeBron James is going to have to put the Lakers on his back once again moving forward, as Anthony Davis will likely be out for a month or so with an injury. Losing Davis is huge for this Lakers team. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks and is second to James in points, averaging 23.7 per game, and steals this season. It is time for The King to get back to domination.
There have only been three games in which James has played without Davis this season, and he has dominated. James has averaged 34 points per game without Davis in the lineup! His usage rate jumps from 28.7% to 33.3%, and he has attempted 23 field goals per game. Using our On/Off tool, James has a +5.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Davis and Talen Horton-Tucker off the floor this season.
Top Value: Lonnie Walker IV at Sacramento Kings – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Getting to a Spurs player in this matchup against the Kings is almost a must. I faded Dejounte Murray for Damian Lillard for the top ceiling point guard, so I am going to Lonnie Walker who is a little riskier tonight. Walker has been very boom or bust recently and throughout the season. In his last seven games, Walker has had three games over 30 DraftKings points and three games under 15 DraftKings points.
Playing the Kings is one of the best matchups you can get for a fantasy player. They rank 28th in Defensive Rating and sixth in Pace. The Kings have given up 114.4 points per game, which is the second-most in the league. The total on this game has jumped to 227.5 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. Walker is a cheap way to get to this high-total game and will be low-owned.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
DeMar DeRozan has cleared the Covid protocols and will play against the Lakers tonight. The Bulls have had their last two games postponed due to Covid, so they haven’t played since last Saturday. DeRozan hasn’t played since December 4th, which was 15 days ago!
The Bulls will be playing without Zach LaVine, who has averaged 26 points per game. Using our On/Off tool, DeRozan has played a team-high 256 minutes without LaVine on the court. During that time, he has a +6.7% usage rate and a +6.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus, which is also a team-high. The Lakers lead the league in Pace this season. This is a great spot to get to DeRozan tonight.
Top Value: Maxi Kleber at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The value power forward I want to get to tonight is Maxi Kleber, who provides salary savings, especially on DraftKings. Kleber has seen a salary decrease and a major increase in playing time over his last three games. During that time, Kleber is averaging 9.3 points per game and 7.3 rebounds per game while playing 30.7 minutes per game. That minute increase provides a ton of value for Kleber.
This matchup against the Timberwolves is very intriguing for Kleber. You may not think of Kleber as a rebounding big, but with no Luka Doncic, he is second on the Mavericks in rebounds per game. The Timberwolves are allowing 47 rebounds per game, which is the fourth-highest total in the league. The Mavericks will likely start Dwight Powell, but don’t be worried. Kleber will likely play massive minutes off the bench again in a very favorable matchup.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Brooklyn Nets – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic is on the slate. Play Nikola Jokic. It really is as simple as that. However, this matchup justifies playing Jokic even more tonight. The Brooklyn Nets will be playing on a back-to-back, and they have virtually no centers available. Last night, Blake Griffin played 32 minutes. The rest of the way, they went with a small-ball lineup. The Nets won’t be able to do that against the best offensive center in the league.
The Nets just lost to the 6-25 Orlando Magic. Not only did they lose, but they gave up a double-double to Robin Lopez, who finished with 20 points and 10 rebounds. Robin Lopez! Just imagine what Jokic can do against this very small frontcourt. Jokic was in foul trouble last game and only finished with 26 minutes. However, in his previous five games he has averaged 69.3 DraftKings points per game.
Jokic is the highest-ceiling play on the slate by far.
Editor’s note: Nets-Nuggets has been postponed. Be sure to check the Player Models for real-time updates.
Top Value: Omer Yurtseven at Detroit Pistons – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
The value at center tonight is not very appealing, but Omer Yurtseven does stand out as a very solid cheap option. He has a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games since entering the rotation. Yurtseven does have the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in our model tonight at +5.9.
This matchup against the Pistons features the lowest total on the slate at 209 points, with the Heat being seven-point favorites. Blowout or not, Yurtseven should see minutes against the 4-24 Pistons. They rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season and have allowed 110.1 points per game.
