Opening night is a magical time in the NBA. Over the past three years, the Lakers defeated the Clippers by 13 points on the strength of bench players Xavier Henry and Jordan Farmar, Omer Asik recorded 14 points and 17 rebounds, and Ricky Rubio scored a career-high 28 points and dished out 14 assists. Literally, anything can happen.
Tonight’s three-game slate is stacked with top-tier point guards and small forwards. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
The Warriors’ current spread is -9, and in 25 games last season when the spread closed between -11 and -7, Stephen Curry provided value to the tune of a +4.98 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +5.03 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. His Consistency was similar regardless of the venue, but Curry’s Plus/Minus dropped to less than +3.00 at Oracle Arena. The addition of Kevin Durant will reshape the team’s usage distribution, but Curry possesses the better matchup (Tony Parker) in the opening contest. Even though the Spurs played at one of the slowest paces last season, the Warriors’ tempo maintained at 103.32 possessions per 48 minutes in the two games played at Oracle. That bodes well for Curry’s floor this evening.
Without George Hill last season — whose defensive Plus/Minus is best among point guards tonight, per our new NBA Matchups tool — players generated a -1.70 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and -1.51 Plus/Minus on FanDuel when facing the Jazz. Point guards met salary-based expectations 43 percent of the time. Damian Lillard was one of the outliers, however: He averaged a +3.75 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +3.10 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in three games versus the Jazz. Last Wednesday, Lillard scored 27 points in 28 minutes against tonight’s projected Jazz lineup. He’s been playing off the ball more in the preseason, and he’s admitted to finally being fully healthy. Of the three games on tap, this one has the best chance of being competitive into the fourth quarter.
Values
Kyrie Irving costs $7,100 on FanDuel. His primary defender, Derrick Rose, has a +3.5 defensive Plus/Minus and has missed five preseason games and seven practices due to personal matters. Curry and Lillard clear Irving’s salary by at least $1,800, although Irving is the one whose minutes may increase after his backup point guard, Kay Felder, was ruled out with a concussion. Irving leads all players with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel; his projected floor is similar to Lillard’s.
Leverage Plays
The Jazz are currently implied to score a slate-low 94 points. Their pace of 93.3 possessions per 48 minutes last season was last in the NBA. They will be without Gordon Hayward (finger) and Derrick Favors (knee). Offensive creation will fall to George Hill, who rose to the occasion in the 2014-15 season when Paul George missed all but six games rehabbing from a broken leg. When Hill played, the Pacers’ recorded pace was 92.9, similar to the Jazz’s last season. Still, his +4.48 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +5.76 Plus/Minus on FanDuel showed that he can perform in a low-possession game. He’s projected to have FanDuel ownership of 17 to 20 percent, which is far below Irving’s and Curry’s projections of 31 to 35 percent.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Klay Thompson hasn’t been gun-shy in the preseason, attempting 7.4 3-pointers in 24.3 minutes per game. That’s second to only Curry. With Danny Green (hamstring) sidelined, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will be forced to start Kyle Anderson or Jonathan Simmons. I’ll take Thompson in that matchup, especially with his trigger finger in the preseason.
C.J. McCollum, like his teammate Lillard, returned positive value against the Jazz last season. In four games, McCollum produced a +6.85 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +6.47 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s $200 cheaper than Klay Thompson on DraftKings and $400 more expensive on FanDuel. McCollum offers the higher floor, while Thompson provides the higher upside. They’re both projected for 26 to 30 percent ownership on FanDuel.
Values
Kay Felder (concussion) has been ruled out, leaving a hole in the depth chart behind Irving. Iman Shumpert should fill that hole until the Cavaliers find an alternative solution. However, don’t expect Shumpert to be the primary facilitator when he replaces Irving. Shump should help initiate the offense, but LeBron James will likely be on the court to dominate the ball. In his first crack at the role in the Cavaliers’ preseason game, Shumpert led the team with five assists and grabbed seven boards. At $3,100 on DraftKings, he’s definitely in play in tournaments.
Jonathan Simmons costs $3,000 on DraftKings. He will split minutes with Kyle Anderson now that Danny Green is expected to miss three weeks, and he needs to produce only 12.65 DK points in the 20 to 25 minutes he will likely play. Additionally, this game has immense blowout potential, which will favor the younger players on the Spurs.
Leverage Plays
Manu Ginobili won’t garner much consideration if the Vegas spread holds up and the Warriors defeat the Spurs handily. But with the bench so thin and Boris Diaw gone from last season’s roster, Ginobili should be a primary creator. He played more than 24 minutes just seven times last season, but with Danny Green out of the equation, Ginobili may approach that limit in the unlikely chance the Spurs don’t get blown out. He has FantasyLabs projected ownership of just 13 to 16 percent on FD in this small slate.
Small Forward
Studs
Cleveland coach Ty Lue has already voiced his plan to limit the minutes of Irving, Kevin Love, and LeBron James this season. I think it’s important to highlight that the Cavaliers will have two days off after this game. James’ 90 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past year immediately vaults him into cash-game consideration. His $9,600 salary on FanDuel leads all players, making him more of a tournament play if you’re going to spend the extra $300 rather than go with Kevin Durant. He’s projected to be owned in 31 to 35 percent of FD lineups.
In the time Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard spent together on the court last season, Durant shot 39.5 percent on 38 attempts. However, Leonard’s presence wasn’t entirely the reason for Durant’s inefficiency; coach Popovich occasionally hid Tony Parker on Andre Roberson, shifted Danny Green onto Durant, and placed Leonard on Russell Westbrook to stymie the 1-3 pick-and-roll. In the postseason, Durant made half of his attempts when Leonard was on the court, but again, cross matching was prevalent. If the rotations emulate preseason play, Durant will exit at the six-minute mark of the first quarter and anchor the second unit when Curry is on the bench.
Values
Carmelo Anthony ($7,600 on DraftKings) and Kawhi Leonard ($7,900 on FanDuel) represent the cheapest options on their respective site among the stud small forwards. Leonard costs $200 more on DraftKings and Anthony costs $100 more on FanDuel. They’re practically interchangeable. Both are also dealing with new additions to the starting lineups who could cut into their production, and both play for teams that are close to double-digit underdogs. Since neither is in an enviable position, I would rely on Leonard knowing that he will be Durant’s shadow on defense and the focal point of the offense in what projects to be a high-scoring affair. Anthony’s situation is murkier after Derrick Rose missed all but one preseason game.
Kyle Anderson started the final preseason game once Danny Green was ruled out three weeks with a strained left quad. Jonathan Simmons was also missing from that game with a right calf contusion, and either player could start at shooting guard. They both cost $3,500 on FanDuel, but Anderson’s Projected Plus/Minus of +6.57 leads all players. This, of course, is subject to change once Popovich announces who will start. For now, Anderson seems to be chalky at 31 to 35 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on FD.
Leverage Plays
Evan Turner has been marked down on DraftKings to $4,700. It’s not an outright value play, but you can count on him suiting up and playing a similar role to the one he held in Boston. The transition hasn’t been smooth during the preseason, but his best performance came in the most recent game against the Jazz. With so many stud SFs, he should be relatively low-owned: He has FantasyLabs projected ownership of just nine to 12 percent on FD.
Power Forward
Studs
Draymond Green led the Warriors with 4.2 assists per game in the preseason, but he recorded only one block and shot 29 percent from the field. The warning signs are present. Someone has to take a backseat with Durant in town, although coach Steve Kerr will do his best to keep Curry and Green on the court together when Durant sits to feature their dynamic pick-and-roll combination. Under interim coach Luke Walton last season, Green recorded eight of his 13 triple-doubles, as well as a +4.11 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +4.14 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Once Kerr returned to the sidelines on January 22nd, Green’s Plus/Minus dipped to +1.97 on DraftKings and +2.53 on FanDuel.
Values
Kristaps Porzingis costs $6,900 on FanDuel — a veritable steal. Expect him to play more with the second unit as a pick-and-pop center, and that should accentuate his strengths. Minimizing his court time with Derrick Rose will be paramount, as he’s already developed a chemistry with backup point guard Brandon Jennings in the preseason. Porzingis leads all power forwards on FanDuel with a +6.16 Projected Plus/Minus.
With Favors ruled out, Trey Lyles and new addition Boris Diaw should soak up the majority of the PF minutes for Utah. Lyles will be the chalk of the night: He’s only $3,600 on DK and $4,000 on FD and possesses Projected Plus/Minus values of +6.85 and +5.48, respectively. Per our new (and free!) NBA On/Off tool, Lyles received the biggest Plus/Minus bump in the 20 games Favors missed last season, exceeding salary-based expectations by 6.6 points on DK and 7.6 points on FD. He could be the highest-owned player of the night.
Leverage Plays
Al-Farouq Aminu costs $4,400 on DraftKings. It may be a skewed sample, but over the last 11 games of the regular season last year when Maurice Harkless replaced Noah Vonleh in the starting lineup and Aminu moved up to power forward, he recorded a +8.58 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +6.40 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Aminu carried that dominance into the postseason, crafting a +7.50 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +7.20 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in 11 games. Clearly, Aminu has unlocked something sliding up a position, and the salary alone makes him appealing in all formats. He’s projected to be owned in just 13 to 16 percent of FD lineups.
Center
Studs
Rudy Gobert has been exceptional in the preseason, benefiting from unselfish facilitators like new additions George Hill and Boris Diaw. In two preseason games against the Trail Blazers, Gobert recorded two double-doubles in less than 27 minutes. He made 35 of 47 free throws, a departure from his career mark of 58.5 percent. Gobert shot 59.4 percent from the field when Favors was off the court last season, an improvement from 52.5 percent when they shared the court. Additionally, he led the Jazz with 1.0 DraftKings point per minute and 0.9 FanDuel points per minute sans Favors. Lastly, of all Tuesday’s listed starters, Mason Plumlee possesses the worst defensive Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel. Too many factors lead me back to Gobert as the premier center option.
Pau Gasol leads all eligible centers on FanDuel in projected points, ceiling, and floor. Additionally, he’s the only center with a Consistency higher than 80 percent on FanDuel and DraftKings over the past year. LaMarcus Aldridge required a few months to get comfortable within the Spurs organization, and it’s fair to wonder if Gasol will experience a similar feeling-out period. With Gobert $1,400 cheaper on FanDuel, fading Gasol appears like the right call in cash games.
Values
Trying to determine how Blazers coach Terry Stotts will manage his rotation outside of Lillard and McCollum is always a challenge. However, Ed Davis‘ salary is just much too cheap on DraftKings at $3,800. He boasts one of the highest Projected Plus Minus values of the night at +5.12 currently. You can slot him in at center or power forward.
If you’re looking to save money on FanDuel, the decision will likely come down to Tristan Thompson or Joakim Noah. Thompson has a better chance at recording a double-double based on his rebounding prowess, but he’s limited offensively. Noah recently admitted to being a step slow defensively after missing the start of preseason with a hamstring and ankle injury. Thompson is cheaper than Noah on both sites, and his backup is 38-year-old Chris Andersen.
Leverage Plays
Among centers and forwards, Mason Plumlee recorded the sixth-highest assist percentage (26.9 percent) in the preseason. He’s been converted into the offensive hub; he’s been asked to facilitate from the elbows now that he’s developed a mid-range game. Plumlee nearly recorded a triple-double in the second contest against the Jazz in the preseason and took advantage of Gobert’s hesitation to vacate the paint.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
