Wednesday features Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks. The Timberwolves are 4.5-point home favorites tonight with a game total sitting at 207.5 points. Expect an electric atmosphere in Minnesota as they begin their last series in an attempt to make the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history! Buckle up for an exciting series!
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Leading the way is none other than Mavericks’ superstar Luka Doncic. He ended the Thunder series with three-straight triple-doubles averaging 26 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. Doncic has recorded at least 52 DraftKings points in all but one game during this playoff run. His usage rate has dipped from 35.9% during the season to 31.3% in the postseason, but Doncic is still the stud to target.
Doncic was only able to play in two of the four meetings against the Timberwolves this season, but he dominated both games. Proving he can have success in any matchup, Doncic averaged 36.5 points per game while shooting 50.9% from the field. To no surprise, Doncic has the highest projected ceiling in our Player model tonight. There is plenty of value for him to be the optimal captain on this showdown slate.
Given the price discount and a similar ceiling, Anthony Edwards is the highest-owned captain. He also has by far the highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position. Edwards was a boom-or-bust fantasy producer in the Nuggets series. He had two games with over 63 DraftKings points and the rest were all under 46 points. This is an easier matchup for Edwards who has shown that he is unafraid to stay aggressive.
The Mavericks’ were a below-average defensive team during the regular season, and Edwards exploited that. In his four meetings against them, Edwards averaged 24.5 points per game while shooting 45.5% from behind the arc. Their defense has improved in the postseason, but they still have no match for Edwards. With a 97% Bargain Rating and extremely high upside, Edwards is the best play on the slate.
Similar to Anthony Edwards, Mavericks’ point guard Kyrie Irving was a roller coaster last series in terms of his production. Irving had three games scoring 20+ points and the other three he only averaged 10 per game. Which Irving will show up tonight is anyone’s guess, but his ceiling is worth getting exposure to in tournaments. He will also randomly have double-digit assist games, which makes him even more enticing.
Irving is a much cheaper way to get exposure to the Mavericks’ offense. He is one of three players projected to play over 40 minutes in this matchup. His salary has decreased due to his inconsistent recent play to $9,800. Irving had a few explosive games against the Clippers in the first round, so we know he has it in his bag. Prioritize him in tournaments over cash games due to his inconsistency.
Karl-Anthony Towns recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four-straight games to end the Nuggets series. He posted a double-double in three of those four games and averaged 39.7 DraftKings points per game. Towns was a major mismatch in the Nuggets series due to his ability to score at all three levels, and his aggressiveness was on full display. He will likely be a similar mismatch against the Mavericks in this series.
Towns is projected to have the third-highest usage rate, which immediately puts him in the conversation as one of the best plays on the board. Priced at $9,200, Towns has a 96% Bargain Rating and is easy to fit into all lineup builds whether at the captain or utility position. The Mavericks are an atrocious rebounding team at 48.5% during the regular season. Another double-double feels inevitable for Towns in this spot.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Leading the middle range is Mavericks’ forward PJ Washington. Something clicked for Washington in the Thunder series. After Game 1, Washington averaged 19.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 38 DraftKings points per game. He posted a Plus/Minus in four of those five games with three double-doubles. Washington has turned into a legit No. 3 option for this Mavericks team. He is a strong mid-range play in all formats.
Rudy Gobert looked like a fool guarding Nikola Jokic on several occasions, but who doesn’t? Gobert now has an elite matchup against the Mavericks frontcourt. Not only do they struggle on the glass, but the Mavericks were also a below-average interior defense allowing 49.9 points per game in the paint. This is a great spot for Gobert.
Mike Conley is the only questionable player for tonight’s Game 1 matchup. It is hard to envision him not suiting up, but make sure to monitor his status the closer we get to lock. Conley has been a valuable and steady asset for the Timberwolves this playoff run. He has scored double-digit points in nine of his 11 games played. With double-digit points and assists upside, Conley is a strong play if he is able to suit up.
After Mike Conley, there is a huge pricing gap to Jaden McDaniels. For the first time in his career, McDaniels scored over 20 points in back-to-back games. What a time for that to happen in the two biggest games in franchise history. McDaniels has been incredible recently and is a phenomenal value option tonight. His price tag has skyrocketed to $5,800, but that may not be enough given his recent play.
Rookie Dereck Lively is another Mavericks player who has stepped up immensely. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in his last four games while averaging 29.3 DraftKings points per game. Lively posted a double-double in his last two games, helping the Mavericks advance to this position. He has been closing out games, and his size and energy will be needed in this difficult matchup. Lively is a great value.
Mavericks’ starting center Daniel Gafford is a fantastic play as well due to the matchup. Both Gafford and Lively are projected to play around 20-25 minutes. Gafford hasn’t been dominant like Lively, but he has still has scored double-digit points in five of his last seven games while averaging 11.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game over that time. His size and strength will be needed to slow down the Timberwolves frontcourt.
Rinse and repeat. Derrick Jones Jr. had a +10 DraftKings Plus/Minus in each of his last three games, averaging 19.3 points per game. He shot an absurd 64.7% from the field and 50% from behind the arc during that time with six blocks and two steals. If Jones Jr. is going to play like that, he is a must roster. With most of the attention going to Irving and Doncic, Jones Jr. will continue to get several open looks.
Naz Reid went as the Timberwolves and Nuggets series did. He was incredible in all of their four wins, averaging 12.8 points per game with a positive Plus/Minus in each game compared to 8.3 per game in their three losses. Projected to play around 20 minutes, Reid is another tournament value play with a high ceiling. It will not take much for him to return value at a $4,400 salary especially in this favorable matchup.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,600): If Mike Conley is out, that would make Nickeil Alexander-Walker the best play on the slate. In the one game that Conley missed last series, Alexander-Walker drew the start and had 29.5 DraftKings points in 39 total minutes. Even if Conley plays, Alexander-Walker is a value play worth getting exposure to. He is projected to play 22 minutes and has a high ceiling.
- Tim Hardaway ($3,000): After a pretty strong regular season, it has been a disappointing postseason for Tim Hardaway. He was injured early in the Clippers series, and his minutes have fluctuated ever since. His biggest highlight was Game 2 against the Thunder, scoring 17 points on 6-for-10 shooting from the field. Over half of his field goal attempts come from long distance, which makes him risky.
- Josh Green ($2,800): Among these five value plays, Josh Green has the highest Bargain Rating by far at 95%. He has been exceptional off the bench for the Mavericks, with a positive Plus/Minus in nine of their 12 playoff games. Green can stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways and has at least one steal in nine of those 12 games as well. Projected for 18 minutes tonight, Green is an elite value play.
- Kyle Anderson ($2,400): Playing against the Nuggets was not the series for Kyle Anderson. He struggled finding his groove in many ways, but he should find more success against the Mavericks. Despite being projected for only nine minutes, Anderson is still worth getting a little bit of exposure to. He can randomly pop for a ceiling performance, but don’t get carried away. He is a true punt play.
- Jaden Hardy ($2,000): Mavericks’ backup guard Jaden Hardy went from not playing hardly at all to playing at least 11 minutes in each of their last two games. When he plays, Hardy has a massive usage rate. Despite only projecting for 11 minutes, Hardy has the fourth-highest projected usage rate on the slate at 24%. The upside is there if the Mavericks give Hardy double-digit minutes again tonight.
