Wednesday features Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics at 9 p.m. ET.
The Celtics were able to win Game 1 of this series, but the Warriors bounced back with a convincing win in Game 2. However, the series will shift to Boston for Game 3. The Celtics are currently listed as 3.5-point favorites on their home floor, and they’re slight -115 favorites to win the series.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Jayson Tatum has been held in check during the first two games of this series, but there have been mitigating circumstances in both. The first was Tatum’s first career NBA Finals contest, so nerves were a factor. He shot just 3-17 from the field, which is a major outlier for a scorer like Tatum. The second game turned into a blowout, limiting Tatum to 34.3 minutes.
Tatum has been playing closer to 42 minutes during the NBA playoffs, so expect a massive spike in production in Game 3. He has seen a slight decrease in per-minute production during the postseason, but his enormous volume has been enough to compensate.
Overall, Tatum leads our NBA Models in both ceiling in median projection by a sizable margin. That’s very appealing for someone who is not the most expensive player on DraftKings. Unsurprisingly, he also grades out well in terms of projected Plus/Minus, making him a tough fade.
Steph Curry is the other central stud in this series, and he’s been phenomenal through the first two games. He’s scored at least 50.0 DraftKings points in both contests, even though he was limited to 32.2 minutes in Game 2’s blowout win.
He should continue to serve as the focal point of the Warriors’ offense. They haven’t gotten strong performances from their complementary scorers, so Curry has had to do more than he did during the early rounds. His usage rate sits at 34.7% during the Finals after posting a usage rate of just 30.4% in his last series.
That extra scoring upside makes Curry an appealing option, even at a slightly inflated price tag. Tatum is the superior choice if you can only use one, but playing both players together is definitely viable.
Jaylen Brown is a borderline stud, but he has been excellent for most of the playoffs. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last outing, but so is basically the entire Celtics’ roster. Before that outing, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his previous seven games.
Brown grades out comparably to Curry from a ceiling perspective, which could make him the superior choice given the price differential. He ranks fourth in our NBA Models in terms of projected Plus/Minus, which is one spot higher than Curry.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
There’s a significant drop-off in price after Brown. Marcus Smart is the next most expensive option on DraftKings, but he’s -$1,600 cheaper.
Smart has been bothered by an injury of late, and he’s been limited to 29.9 minutes or fewer in three of his past four games. That includes just 25.1 minutes in the Game 2 blowout.
Your opinion of Smart in Game 3 comes down to how much you think his playing time bounces back. He’s been removed from the injury report, which is a good sign. He’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, but that number could be closer to 40 if he’s nearing full strength. Smart has been excellent when on the court during the postseason, increasing his production to 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. He’s not my favorite option in this price range, but he has some buy-low appeal.
Al Horford is another member of the Celtics who has thrived during the playoffs. Before his last outing, he had scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in five straight games.
However, the Warriors changed their defensive strategy regarding Horford in Game 2. He launched eight 3-point attempts in Game 1, and all eight of those shots were classified as “unguarded” by NBA.com. Basically, the Warriors dared Horford to beat them from the perimeter, and he made them pay. The Warriors paid much more attention to Horford in Game 2, and he didn’t attempt a single 3-pointer.
If the Warriors continue to treat Horford as a shooting threat, his value in this series is going to be significantly lower. He should still be able to provide some value with his rebounding, playmaking, and defense, but he feels a bit overpriced.
Klay Thompson is next up for the Warriors, and he has had a brutal start to the Finals. He wasn’t awful in Game 1, shooting 6-14 from the field and 3-7 from 3-point range, but he was just 4-19 in Game 2.
However, Thompson’s usage rate of 32.3% in Game 2 was one of his highest marks of the postseason. He should continue to carry an expanded workload given the Warriors’ current rotation, and he’s a prime candidate for some positive shooting regression. He has more risk than the typical player in this price range, but his ceiling is massive.
Andrew Wiggins is a bit safer than Thompson. He’s not nearly as 3-point-dependent, with Wiggins doing most of his scoring damage in the midrange. He’s also a bit better in the peripheral categories. That feels weird to say about Wiggins – who has previously been one of the worst peripheral contributors in the league – but he’s taken some significant steps forward with the Warriors. Wiggins has racked up at least five boards in eight straight games, and he’s had double-digit rebounds in three of them. I’d much rather opt for the upside of Thompson for an extra $200, but Wiggins is a solid option in his own right.
Draymond Green stands out as the best per-dollar option in this price range, and he’s one of the strongest overall options on the slate. He’s not the same fantasy force that he was in his prime, primarily due to his lack of scoring upside. He used to be a nightly threat for a double- or triple-double, but he’s scored fewer than 10 points in 10 of 18 playoff contests. That includes both games to start the series vs. the Celtics.
However, Green’s price tag has come down to a point where that’s not a huge factor. He’s scored at least 27.75 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games, which is good enough to return value at his current salary. He trails only Tatum in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Kevon Looney continues to get the job done for the Warriors and fantasy owners. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 14 of his past 15 games, and he’s scored at least 25.75 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight. That includes 31.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 despite playing just 21.4 minutes.
Looney’s price tag has also decreased of late. He’s priced at just $6,600 on DraftKings after peaking at $7,400 in Game 1 of this series. Looney may not need to play quite as much vs. the Celtics as he did vs. the Mavs, but he’s still capable of paying off his decreased salary.
Jordan Poole managed to salvage his fantasy stock in his last outing, finishing with 29.0 DraftKings points over 22.6 minutes. However, that performance was fool’s gold. He played the entire fourth quarter of the blowout victory, and eight of his 17 points came in that frame. His playing time could be slashed if Wednesday’s game is more competitive, and he appears to be fourth among backcourt options in the Warriors’ pecking order. He’s an easy fade.
Robert Williams is tough to trust at the moment. He’s officially listed as questionable, and while he’s been able to play through his knee injury more often than not, it has had a significant impact on his minutes. He finished with just 14 minutes in Game 2 and responded with just 10.0 DraftKings points.
However, Williams should see a few additional minutes in Game 3. He’s currently projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models, and Williams is one of the better per-minute producers in this matchup. If he can get back to that level of playing time, he has a chance to provide value. I’ll have some exposure, especially since he’s not expected to carry much ownership.
Derrick White has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Williams. He’s racked up at least 29.1 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 25.5 DraftKings points in each. He may lose a few minutes to Smart on Wednesday, but he remains a viable option at $5,800.
NBA DFS Punts & Values
- Otto Porter ($4,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Porter is questionable for the Warriors, but he’s managed to play in each of the past two games. His role was minimal in Game 2 – he finished with 14.75 DraftKings points in 14.9 minutes – but part of that was due to the game turning into a blowout. He should see a few additional minutes if Wednesday’s game is more competitive, and Porter has historically been a fantasy-point-per-minute player.
- Grant Williams ($4,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Williams’ biggest impact during the postseason came against the Bucks, where he could serve as a deterrent to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Against the Warriors, his only real value is trying to goad Draymond into technical fouls. Until they start awarding fantasy points for that, you can ignore him at $4,200.
- Payton Pritchard ($3,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Pritchard played 18.6 minutes in Game 2, but that was buoyed by the game turning into a blowout. I would expect fewer minutes in Game 3, making him a risky option.
- Gary Payton II ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Payton was left out of the Warriors’ rotation in Game 1, but he had a significant impact in Game 2. He’s also listed as questionable on Wednesday, but he should have a prominent role in their rotation as long as he’s active. Payton finished with 25.3 minutes in his last outing, and he’s a solid per-minute producer. He’s massively underpriced at just $3,000, so he should be a staple of most lineups.
- Nemanja Bjelica ($2,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Bjelica would be a very appealing play if Andre Iguodala is unable to suit up. He could see a few minutes off the bench in that scenario, and Bjelica is an excellent per-minute producer. He finished with 13.75 DraftKings points over 10.6 minutes in Game 2, and a repeat performance is not out of the question.
- Daniel Theis ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Theis should see just a few minutes off the bench in most contests, but he has the potential to play a bit more in blowouts.
- Andre Iguodala ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Iguodala should remain on the bench even if he’s active, but Steve Kerr played him more than 12 minutes in Game 1. He finished with 11.5 DraftKings points in that contest, so he can pay off a minimum salary if he sees the court.
