After the Celtics swept their way to the NBA Finals on Monday, the Mavericks will look to join them with a sweep of their own on Tuesday. They’ll host the Timberwolves after winning each of the first three games in this series. If they make it four straight, the NBA will take an unusual pause and both teams will have a week off before the Finals get underway next Thursday, June 6. The Mavericks are 2-point favorites in Game 4, and the game total is set at 210.5.
On the injury front, Dallas is expected to be without Dereck Lively II (neck) while Maxi Kleber (shoulder) is questionable after being sidelined since May 3 with an AC joint separation. Luka Doncic (knee) and Mike Conley (calf) are both officially questionable as they continue to play through injuries, but both are expected to be available, especially with so much on the line.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
After dominating the first three games of this series, Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a Utility spot as well. Doncic has the highest salary and is very tricky to build around as Captain, but his production has been elite enough to still deserve consideration as the best option in Game 4.
Doncic has exceeded salary-based expectations in Showdown contests in an amazing eight straight games, and he has a Plus/Minus of at least +12 in five straight games while scoring at least 29 points in each of those contests and producing at least 60 DraftKings points. In the playoffs, he is averaging 1.43 DraftKings points per minute, but he has stepped that up to 1.54 DraftKings points per minute over his last five games.
His best game of the series was Game 2 with his 32-point triple-double, but he has dominated the whole series and definitely deserves a look even at this price based on his projections. He has the highest usage projection on the slate and a better Pts/Sal than any other option with a salary over $5,500.
Luka’s backcourt mate Kyrie Irving has also played like a fantasy stud this series, with at least 20 points and over 35 DraftKings points in each of the three games. He had his best game of the series in Game 3, with 33 points and 44.25 DraftKings points in 42 minutes including 13 points in the fourth quarter to help seal the win.
In the postseason, Kyrie is producing 0.96 DraftKings points per minute, but he has looked much better in this series after struggling against the Thunder in the last round. Kyrie’s 14-0 record in playoff closeout games is well known, and in those 14 games, he has averaged 23.1 points, 4.6 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game. He’s much cheaper than Luka and can work in a Utility spot if you’re going with a balanced construction.
On the other side of the matchup, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will need to step up to help the Wolves avoid elimination. They played well with their backs to the wall against the Nuggets in the last round but face a long road ahead if they want to win four straight and get to the Finals.
Edwards promised to be aggressive in Game 3 and delivered his best performance of the series, with 52.25 DraftKings points on 26 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists in 43 minutes. He continued to struggle with his shot thanks to the Mavs’ sturdy defense but was able to put together his best statistical game since Game 4 of the series against the Nuggets.
In Game 4, he has the second-highest median, floor, and ceiling projections behind only Luka and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only Luka and Kyrie. His Pts/Sal trail a little behind the Mavs’ guards as well, but if you think the Wolves are going to be able to push the series to a Game 5 back in Minneapolis, Edwards makes sense to build around in your fantasy lineup. His salary is high but leaves more room than Luka’s if you go with Ant as your Game 4 Captain.
Towns’ production has been disappointing in this series, with under 35 DraftKings points in each contest. He hasn’t scored 20 points in any game in the series despite taking at least 16 shots in each game. In the three games, KAT has shot a combined 15-for-54 (28%) including 3-for-22 (14%) from three-point range.
Despite his disappointing results this round, he does still bring a potentially high ceiling if he can get on track. He looked much better in the last series and has produced a solid 1.14 DraftKings points per game in the playoffs. The Wolves will need their star to turn it around if they want to extend the series.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
In addition to Towns’ struggles, Rudy Gobert has not been as productive against Dallas as he was against Denver. Gobert had only nine points and six rebounds for 19 DraftKings points in Game 3 after a solid double-double in Game 2 that netted him 39 DraftKings points.
While Both Gobert and Towns have been letdowns, Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid has gotten more minutes and been more productive. Reid played under 23 minutes in each of the five games against the Nuggets after Gobert returned from a one-game absence and didn’t score more than 12 points. In each of the three games in this series, he played over 24 minutes and scored over 13 points.
He averaged 1.00 DraftKings point per minute in the three games in this series and could continue to get more minutes if he’s more productive on offense than Towns and Gobert. At just $5,200, Reid comes at a huge discount and has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player in the Utility spot behind only Doncic, Edwards, and Irving. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player with a salary under $9,000 and also has the second-highest Pts/Sal on the slate.
Since he is so affordable, there’s definitely an opportunity to build around him as your Captain if you want to use multiple stars in Utility roles. In his role off the bench, Reid does come with added risk, but his performance this series has been one of the few bright spots for Minnesota.
In the Timberwolves’ backcourt, Mike Conley continues to play through his calf injury. He had 18 points and 35.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 in his best game of the series but was limited to 16 points and 26.75 DraftKings points in Game 3 while missing some time in the second quarter. When available, Conley has been pretty productive and helps take some of the burden off Edwards, but he isn’t at 100%, so it’s hard to pay $7,000 for him compared to other similarly priced options.
Jaden McDaniels has scored 15 points or more in three of his last four games while trying to pick up some of the slack. In Game 3, though, he had very little production in any other category and only finished with 19.75 DraftKings points. McDaniels is usually more active on the boards and defensive end, and his large workload makes him a relatively safe play at $6,000, although Reid has more upside.
While the Timberwolves haven’t gotten much production from their supporting cast aside from Naz, the Mavericks’ role players have been excellent in this series. Not having Lively will definitely sting, but Daniel Gafford should get a boost in minutes and be a great value, especially if Kleber needs another game before getting back in the mix. Gafford was quiet in Game 3 but had 22.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 32.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs and usually helps anchor the defense with solid rim protection. Lively had been the better fantasy play lately, but in his absence, Gafford should see a spike in minutes.
P.J. Washington could also get more minutes in the middle without Lively, although he’s a little undersized to tangle with the Timberwolves bigs. He emerged as a scoring option against the Thunder but has been relatively quiet in this series, letting Irving and Doncic do most of the heavy lifting. He has been held to 30 DraftKings points or fewer in four straight after exceeding that number in his four previous games. His salary is a little steep at $7,200 with Gafford and Reid as better plays below him.
Derrick Jones rounds out the Mavericks’ starting lineup and has gotten heavy minutes throughout the playoffs. He played 33+ minutes in each of the first three games in this series but hasn’t reached 20 DraftKings points in any contest. He takes enough three-point shots to have some spike potential but is more of a solid contributor than an upside investment in his current role.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kyle Anderson ($3,000): Anderson has been more involved in this series for the Timberwolves than he was against the Nuggets. He has played at least 17 minutes in each game and produced at least 17 DraftKings points in each game while exceeding salary-based expectations in Showdown contests. Anderson has been good when called on throughout the season, but his workload is hard to count on.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($2,800): When Conley missed time earlier in the playoffs, NAW stepped into a huge role, so he would be an elite value if Conley is ruled out or limited. In Game 3, Conley left in the second quarter but returned, so Alexander-Walker ended up with 20 minutes and 10 DraftKings points. In his last start, he had 29.5 DraftKings points in 39 minutes, so the upside is there, but he’s extremely high-risk unless Conley is ruled out before tip off, which seems unlikely.
- Josh Green ($2,600): Green has the highest Pts/Sal on the entire slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries under $5,000. He played 25 minutes in Game 3 but only produced 8.5 DraftKings points. In the playoffs, he’s producing 0.71 DraftKings points per minute and averaging 17.7 minutes per game, but in this contest, he has a minutes projection of 24.0. If he gets that much playing time, he should be able to return great value for a player under $3,000.
- Jaden Hardy ($2,400): Hardy’s minutes have been limited in the postseason since Luka and Kyrie typically soak up all the backcourt minutes and usage. He has scored eight points and seven points in the last two games, though, so he has been productive in his limited action. If the game script calls for him to play more minutes, he has good upside. Green is a much more stable option, but Hardy typically has higher usage when he’s on the floor.
- Dwight Powell ($2,200): Powell played eight minutes in Game 3 after Lively’s injury, having not appeared in the first two games of the series. If Kleber is not back yet, Powell will likely get some extra minutes off the bench and become a viable punt play.
