NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, May 23): Heat are Due for Shooting Regression

Tuesday features Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Heat are listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 216.5.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

The Heat have shocked the world by jumping out to a 3-0 series lead, and they’ll look to shut the book on the Celtics in Game 4. The big difference in this series has been the 3-point shooting discrepancy, with the Heat knocking down 13 more 3-pointers than the Celtics despite 14 fewer attempts. That kind of discrepancy is hard to overcome, especially when your best players aren’t getting the job done.

Jayson Tatum hasn’t been the Celtics’ best player all year, and he was one of the best players in the league during the regular season. However, he’s managed 40.75 DraftKings points or fewer in two of three games in this series. The lone exception was in Game 2 when he went off for 62.75 DraftKings points and was the optimal Captain in showdown lineups.

Before his recent struggles, Tatum had provided excellent value during the postseason. He scored at least 52.25 DraftKings points in five of seven games vs. the 76ers and four of six contests vs. the Hawks.

Tatum has also delivered his best performances in the biggest spots, dropping 67.5 and 83.25 DraftKings points in the Celtics’ two closeout wins. He erupted for 51 points in Game 7 vs. the 76ers, with his 38.6% usage rate serving as his second-highest of the postseason.

The Celtics seemingly need a monster performance from Tatum on Tuesday, who has been quiet through the first three games. His 29.1% usage rate trails Jaylen Brown’s, despite the fact that Tatum has been vastly more efficient. Expect him to be more aggressive than usual in a win-or-go-home spot.

Jimmy Butler has absolutely thrived during the playoffs. He wasn’t really needed in the team’s last game, playing just 31.3 minutes in a blowout win, but that was his first game of the playoffs with a negative Plus/Minus. He scored at least 54.5 DraftKings points in the first two games vs. the Celtics, and he’s routinely playing more than 40 minutes per night. While most players tend to see a reduction in per-minute efficiency during the playoffs due to the combination of better defense and more playing time, Butler has actually increased his output.

Butler’s salary has risen steadily throughout the playoffs, increasing from $9,400 in Game 1 vs. the Bucks to $12,400 for Tuesday’s matchup. While it’s hard to argue against it, Butler is only slightly cheaper than Tatum for Game 3, and Tatum has still been the superior fantasy producer. He’s averaged more fantasy points per minute for the year and over the past month, and he has higher median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models. That gives Tatum a slight edge if only playing one.

That said, playing both together is probably the best idea. They’ve both been the optimal Captain once this series, and Butler has been an optimal utility twice. Tatum missed the optimal lineup in Game 1, but trying to get both of their massive projections into your lineup seems like the right strategy.

Things have not gone well for Brown during this series. He’s scored just 25.0 and 21.0 DraftKings points in the past two games, shooting just 13-40 from the field and 1-14 from 3-point range. His effective field goal percentage is down to just 39.8% in this series after posting a mark of 55.0% during the regular season.

Still, Brown has remained aggressive on offense, which keeps his ceiling reasonable for his price tag. Maybe he’s mentally checked out – some of the recent reports suggest that’s the case – but buying low on players like Brown is typically a smart idea in NBA DFS. He’s due for some positive shooting regression, and his ownership should be the lowest among the stud tier.

Like Butler, Bam Adebayo wasn’t really needed in the team’s Game 3 victory. He was limited to just 22.25 DraftKings points across 25.5 minutes, which was his lowest output of the postseason. However, Adebayo was brilliant in the game prior, racking up 57.75 DraftKings points on 22 points, 17 rebounds, and nine assists.

Adebayo has been a steady contributor for most of the playoffs, and he stands out as the best pure value in our NBA Models. He leads all players in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games prior to Sunday’s blowout. He hasn’t always displayed the highest ceiling, but he does have two games with at least 56.5 DraftKings points. Adebayo has superior projections to Brown at a cheaper salary, making him a logical choice in all formats.

Adebayo also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

After Adebayo, there’s a pretty steep drop-off to the next tier of players. Marcus Smart is next on the pricing spectrum, and he’s projected for more than 13 fewer fantasy points. That’s part of the reason why a stars-and-scrubs approach is typically the preferred strategy in the single-game format: The top players provide the most raw points, while the cheap players provide the most potential value.

While the Celtics have juggled their rotation in this series, Smart’s role has remained pretty constant. He’s currently projected for more than 35.5 minutes, and he’s finished with at least 30.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He’s been the Celtics’ top distributor in this series, leading the team with 11.0 potential assists per game. That makes him a candidate for a double-double, especially if the Celtics remember how to shoot the ball before Tuesday’s matchup.

While Smart has some appeal at his current price tag, it’s much harder to make a case for Al Horford. He’s been ineffective in this series, and his playing time was slashed to just 18.9 minutes in Game 3. He’s expected to play a bit more in Game 4 – his current minute projection is set at 29.2 – but I think that’s a bit optimistic. The Celtics have been outscored by 39 points with Horford on the floor during this series, including at least 15 points in each of the past two games. If he doesn’t start the game hot in Game 4, he could ride the pine quite a bit in the second half.

The same is true for Malcolm Brogdon. He’s been a high-efficiency player for the Celtics all season, averaging more than a fantasy point per minute. However, his efficiency has decreased during the postseason, and as a result, so has his playing time. He’s gone from 36.8 minutes in Game 1 to just 18.4 minutes in Game 3, and while some of that is due to the game turning into a blowout, I wouldn’t expect a ton of improvement for him on Tuesday.

If you are going to play to Brogdon, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,500 and leads all players with a 96% Bargain Rating.

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While most of the Celtics’ roster can’t buy a bucket right now, Caleb Martin can’t miss. He’s shot 24-38 from the field and 10-21 from 3-point range, both of which are obviously well above his season averages.

That makes this the right time to sell high on him. His price tag has increased from $4,800 in Game 1 to $6,400 in Game 4, and he’s not going to shoot the lights out forever.

I’d much rather target Kyle Lowry in this price range, whose production seems a bit more sustainable. He’s not playing quite as many minutes as Martin, but he has a more diverse skill set. He’s capable of racking up points in the peripheral categories in addition to his scoring, giving him a safer floor and a higher ceiling.

Max Strus was seemingly the only member of the Heat who wasn’t on fire in Game 3. He finished with just two 3-pointers on eight attempts, resulting in 18.25 DraftKings points. Still, we’ve seen some big shooting performances from Strus during the playoffs, including 31 points and eight 3-pointers vs. the Bulls in the play-in tournament. Maybe Tuesday is his night to be the Heat’s unlikely hero.

Robert Williams didn’t play much in the Game 3 blowout, but he was pretty effective when he was on the floor. He finished with eight points and eight boards in just 12.6 minutes, good for 17.5 DraftKings points. It will be interesting to see what his role looks like in Game 4. He’s not projected for a ton of minutes in our NBA Models, but Williams has been one of the best Celtics in terms of Net Rating for the year. He could play a bit more than expected, and Williams is a solid per-minute producer. I like his upside as a contrarian GPP target.

Gabe Vincent was outstanding in Game 3, finishing with 42.0 DraftKings points and landing as the optimal Captain. He shot 11-14 from the field and 6-9 from 3-point range, resulting in 29 points and 42.0 DraftKings points.

While that kind of production is not sustainable, Vincent still has a chance to provide value at his current price tag. He’s played at least 35.5 minutes in all three games in this series, which is easily the most among all players in this price range.

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Derrick White ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): White moved back into the Celtics’ starting lineup in Game 3 and responded with his best game of the series. He finished with 24.0 DraftKings points across 26.1 minutes, and it’s possible he could’ve played more if the game stayed competitive. If the Celtics stick with the same starting lineup, White has plenty of value at his current price tag.
• Duncan Robinson ($3,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Robinson is another one of the Heat’s 3-point specialists that I’m looking to fade in Game 4. He’s not playing a ton of minutes, but he’s gone 8-13 from 3-point range over the past two games. That’s resulted in some excellent fantasy production, but Robinson isn’t going to make shots forever. When the regression comes, he doesn’t really have the ability to score fantasy points in other ways.
• Kevin Love ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Love technically remains a member of the Heat’s starting lineup, but he played just 4.8 minutes in Game 3. He was highly efficient in his playing time, scoring 8.0 DraftKings points, but it’s tough for anyone to provide value with that few minutes. However, he’s projected for closer to 16 minutes in Game 4, which makes him a solid bounce-back candidate.
• Grant Williams ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Williams is my favorite option in this price range, and he should be one of the most popular. Williams is probably most known for getting memed by Butler at this point, but he has been effective with his minutes. He’s played at least 25.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 17.0 DraftKings points in both.
• Cody Zeller ($1,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Zeller has scored at least 11.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and that’s enough to be viable at his minimal salary. If three of the top superstars go off on this slate, Zeller could very easily find his way into the optimal lineup as a punt play.