The NBA Conference Finals tip off on Tuesday night, and the action starts in the Eastern Conference where the top-seeded Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers, who just won Game 7 of their series against the Knicks. In Game 1, Boston is a massive 10-point favorite while the game total is set at 221 since both teams like to play with plenty of pace.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
While the Pacers are coming off a grueling, seven-game series against New York, the Celtics have won each of their first two series in five games–dispatching the Heat and then the Cavaliers by winning Game 1 of each series, losing Game 2, then reeling off three straight wins. They’ll still be without Kristaps Porzingis (calf) as this series starts, but there is optimism that he’ll return relatively early in the series.
Without Porzingis, the Celtics have relied on their star tandem of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Both are excellent fantasy plays and good Captain considerations. Tatum has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in this contest, with Brown just behind him in each category. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a utility spot with Brown right behind him.
In the playoffs, Tatum has produced 1.30 DraftKings points per minute while playing 39.1 minutes per game. He has seven double-doubles in his last eight games and has been doing some extra work on the boards while Porzingis has been out. Against the Cavs, he had 33-point double-doubles in Game 3 and Game 4, as Boston took control of the series with a pair of big wins in Cleveland. He fell just one assist short of a triple-double in the close-out win last Wednesday, and he has proven he can dominate big games on the biggest stage.
Tatum has also had big games against the Pacers this season, averaging 59.4 DraftKings points on 32.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game in their four head-to-head meetings this season. Despite his elevated salary, he’s a great option to consider as Captain or at least a utility play on Tuesday.
Brown might actually be a better Captain pick than Tatum since his salary is so much easier to work with. With Brown at Captain, Tatum can be used as a flex play and still leave you plenty of room to work in other options. While he hasn’t been quite as productive as Tatum, he has averaged a robust 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs so far while playing 35.0 minutes per game.
Last Wednesday, Brown only had 11 points in Game 5, but before that, he had scored 25+ points in four of five games, including a 32-point showing in Game 1 that earned him 46 DraftKings points. He has actually had a slightly higher usage rate than Tatum in the playoffs at 29.3% to Tatum’s 29.0%, and both stars are great options to build around in this matchup.
While Tatum and Brown top our projections, Tyrese Haliburton leads an effective Pacers offense that also gives him a very high ceiling in this contest. He has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in the matchup behind only Tatum and Brown and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Haliburton has had a few low-usage games where he focuses so much on getting his teammates going that he hurts his own offense, but he has also stepped up with some big scoring performances. Overall, he is averaging 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason with a 22.4% usage rate.
He didn’t have a double-double in the seven games against New York but did finish the series with 46 DraftKings points on 26 points and six assists in Game 7. He had two games during that series with over 30 points and over 55 DraftKings points, and he has that kind of incredibly high ceiling in this matchup as well. If you think the Pacers will steal Game 1, he’s the most logical play to build around.
Another stud option from the Pacers side is Pascal Siakam, who scored at least 20 points in four of the last five games against the Knicks. He did much better after the injury to OG Anunoby (hamstring) and overall has produced 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs.
He started the playoffs with back-to-back ceiling double-doubles of 30+ points and over 60 DraftKings points. He hasn’t had more than 45 DraftKings points in any of his 11 games since then, but he still has that high ceiling which makes him worth a look as the only stud with his salary under $9,000.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
During the regular season, Derrick White saw a significant boost in usage and production whenever Porzingis was off the floor for the Celtics. That trend has continued in the playoffs and White has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.8% usage rate with Porzingis off the floor. Overall, he has been very good for Boston in the postseason, scoring double-digit points in nine of 10 games and exploding for 38 points and 57 DraftKings points in Game 4 against Miami.
White has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the fourth-highest ceiling projection in this matchup. He is a little more volatile than the stars discussed above since his usage can fluctuate more, but he brings a great ceiling to this up-tempo game that should fit his style. In the regular season, he averaged 30.9 DraftKings points per game in his five matchups with the Pacers.
Jrue Holiday will likely have the primary assignment of locking up Haliburton, but his offensive production has also been solid in the playoffs. He has scored double-digit points in six of his last seven games after scoring under 10 points in the first three games in the postseason. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of those seven games and had two strong games over 37 DraftKings points in Game 3 and Game 4 in Cleveland. His usage isn’t typically as high as Brown’s and Tatum’s or even White’s, but it’s high enough to still make him a utility consideration since he has produced 0.73 DraftKings points per minute while playing 36.9 minutes per game in the playoffs.
Al Horford had been fairly quiet statistically in the postseason until the final game of the last round. He went off for 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 58.75 DraftKings points in the Celtics’ Game 5 win. The performance was a ceiling game that came out of nowhere, but he has been much more involved while Porzingis is out. Even though he is unlikely to duplicate that performance, he does offer solid production. His salary is a little more than Holiday’s, but I’d prefer Jrue if you are only playing one of the two.
On the other side, Myles Turner has had a great postseason run for the Pacers, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. He exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games and had multiple blocked shots in each of those last five contests against the Knicks. He was in a bit of a mismatch against the banged-up Knicks but took full advantage. His high-energy defense and rebounding give him a high ceiling, and he could also have the advantage early on in this series with Porzingis sidelined.
Both former Celtic Aaron Nesmith and guard Andrew Nembhard are important pieces for the Pacers as well. Nembhard dropped 20 points in Game 7, matching his playoff high, and the second-year guard has averaged 0.8 DraftKings points per minute in 32.3 minutes per game in the playoffs. He finished the last series hot and will look to carry that over while trying to help slow down Boston’s productive backcourt.
Nesmith is a streaky contributor who dropped 19 points and 28 DraftKings points in Game 7, both of which were series highs against the Knicks. He’s a versatile wing who can get hot from long range, and he always seems to be motivated to face his former squad. In his five games against Boston this season, he averaged a solid 27.5 DraftKings points per contest, which is definitely enough to make him a strong play at only $5,000.
T.J. McConnell costs more than both Nesmith and Nembhard even though he comes off the bench while the other two start. McConnell actually leads the Pacers with an average of 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason but only plays an average of 19.0 minutes per game. He has proven he can be very productive leading the second unit, offering instant energy on both ends of the floor. He exceeded salary-based expectations in three of the last four games against the Knicks, with at least 12 points in each contest. In this matchup, I prefer Nesmith and Nembhard at their salaries, but paying up for McConnell does give your lineup a higher ceiling for GPP contests.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Payton Pritchard ($4,400): Pritchard has the highest median and ceiling projection of all players with salaries under $5,000 in Game 1, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in that range as well. In the postseason, he has averaged 0.69 DraftKings points per minute in 22.7 minutes per game. He has scored double-digit points in four of his last five and gets significantly more opportunities whenever games get lopsided. He has a very high ceiling but also a low floor as a “boom-or-bust” contributor off Boston’s bench.
- Luke Kornet ($3,600): Kornet has been playing meaningful minutes with Porzingis sidelined and brings good energy to Boston’s second unit. He exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last six games and had a playoff-high 23 DraftKings points in Game 1 against the Cavs to start the last series.
- Sam Hauser ($2,800): Hauser is an interesting punt play because he is so reliant on three-point shooting. He has been playing 10-15 minutes off the bench and chipping in decent numbers. He was fairly quiet against the Cavs but had a 12-point game and a 17-point game in the first round against the Heat. He could be more involved in this round since the up-tempo, three-focused style fits his game better than the Cavs’ style. He’s a high-risk play but does bring good upside.
- Obi Toppin ($4,000): Toppin has showcased a good ceiling off the bench for the Pacers, scoring double-digit points in eight of his last 11 games. He only had three points in the deciding Game 7, though, and has fallen short of salary-based expectations in three straight and four of his last five. The potential is there, but so is some significant risk. During the regular season, he averaged 19.1 DraftKings points per game in his five contests against Boston.
- Isaiah Jackson ($3,000): Jackson is a cheaper play than Toppin or even Kornet. He has been involved as a big man off the bench. He had a good finish to the series against New York, scoring 10 points in Game 4 and 9 points in Game 7. Jackson has produced 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in his limited playing time in the postseason, but his playing time is less certain than Toppin’s.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,400): Sheppard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the plays under $5,000, and he is an option that works in lots of good roster builds as a result. His salary of only $2,400 unlocks so many options, and the rookie has been getting significant playing time. He had 20.75 DraftKings points in 25 minutes in Game 7 against the Knicks and has averaged almost 19 minutes per game in the postseason, producing 0.66 DraftKings points per minute.
