NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, May 16): Can the Lakers Slow Down Nikola Jokic?

Tuesday features Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, starting at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are listed as six-point home favorites, while the total sits at 222.5 points.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

This series should be a good one. The Nuggets have been the top team during the postseason in terms of Offensive Rating, while the Lakers rank No. 1 in defense. Which side of that matchup is ultimately able to prevail will go a long way in determining the winner of this series.

Of course, the Nuggets’ offense is centered around two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic has been doing the seemingly impossible on a basketball court for the better part of the past five years, but he took his game to another level in their win vs. the Suns. He averaged an absurd 34.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game while shooting 59.4% from the field and 44.4% from 3-point range. Outside of Game 1 – where he played less than 33 minutes in a blowout win – Jokic scored at least 72.25 DraftKings points in each game in that series.

Jokic is capable of beating teams in so many different ways. He’s a nightly triple-double threat, he can gobble up rebounds with the best of them, and he’s displayed plenty of scoring upside during the postseason. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that he absolutely dominates the rest of the field in our NBA Models. His ceiling projection is more than 20 points higher than the Lakers’ top two studs, and he ranks first on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.

On paper, Anthony Davis will be a very tough matchup for him, with AD standing out as one of the best defensive centers in basketball. However, Jokic has had plenty of success vs. the Lakers over the past two seasons, averaging 60.4 DraftKings points and a +2.46 Plus/Minus across six matchups (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, it’s hard to pass up on Jokic in the Captain spot, and it’s nearly impossible to fade him entirely.

The Lakers tandem of AD and LeBron James have played well during the playoffs, but they’ve been a bit quieter than expected. Specifically, LeBron has topped 53.0 DraftKings points just twice during the postseason. He’s deferred more often to his teammates than he has in previous years, and his best performances have come from peripheral production.

That makes Davis the stronger choice of the two, especially since there’s not much separating them in the pricing spectrum. Davis has displayed a consistently higher median and ceiling during the postseason, scoring at least 50.75 DraftKings points in seven of 12 contests. He also boasts a far better Opponent Plus/Minus than LeBron, checking in at +0.25 compared to -4.44.

Of course, playing LeBron and Davis together is certainly doable. They have a correlation of +0.11 on DraftKings, and while that’s not an elite figure, it suggests that their production doesn’t come at the direct expense of the other. Of course, pairing both together is going to make it very tough to fit Jokic, especially if you want to use one in the Captain spot.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Jamal Murray is a midrange option by salary only. He’s priced at just $9,200 on DraftKings, which puts him well below both AD and LeBron on the pricing spectrum. However, Murray grades out very favorably compared to both in our projections. In fact, Murray actually has a higher ceiling projection than Davis and James, and he trails only Jokic in projected Plus/Minus. That makes him one of the strongest choices on the slate.

Murray has seen a big step up in production during the playoffs. He scored at least 45.5 DraftKings points in four of six games vs. the Suns, and he had at least 44.0 in four of five games vs. the Timberwolves. He’s increased his usage rate to 28.7% during the playoffs, and Murray is a proven big-game performer. He averaged 26.5 points per game in his last trip to the postseason, and he’s at 25.9 so far in 2022-23.

After Murray, there’s a steep drop-off to the next tier. Austin Reaves is next on the DraftKings’ pricing spectrum, but he stands out as a much better value on FanDuel. His $10,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, which is tied for the top mark on the slate.

Reaves has evolved into a capable role player for the Lakers, and he racked up at least 32.0 DraftKings points in the final three games vs. the Warriors. However, his price tag has increased since the start of the postseason, and it’s tough to get excited about him at the current figure. He stands lags well behind the rest of the players in this price range in projected Plus/Minus.

D’Angelo Russell is the superior target in the Lakers’ backcourt. He’s been a better per-minute producer than Reaves for the year and over the past month, and both players are projected for a similar number of minutes in our NBA Models. Russell is a bit more scoring-dependent, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games. However, he’s also displayed a ceiling of nearly 45 DraftKings points during the postseason, which is something Reaves hasn’t done.

Russell also grades out well using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

Michael Porter Jr. has had a quiet start to the playoffs. His usage rate and scoring are both way down, but he remains a capable shooter when called upon. He’s knocking down 40.0% of his 3-point attempts during the postseason, and he’s provided more value than usual on the glass. He has at least eight boards in three of his past four games, and when combined with his excellent shooting ability, it gives him a much better ceiling than his current price tag suggests.

Aaron Gordon has been another loser for the Nuggets during the postseason. While MPJ’s production has been limited, Gordon’s has been absolutely slashed. He’s down to just 0.72 DraftKings points per minute over the past month after averaging 1.01 during the regular season.

However, that figure is a bit deceiving. Much of Gordon’s production came in games without Jokic, and Gordon has unsurprisingly seen reductions in his usage, rebound, and assist rates when sharing the floor with Jokic. With Jokic playing nearly 40 minutes per game during the postseason, Gordon isn’t going to see much playing time without the star big man. Gordon has seen a reduction in price tag – making him slightly more appealing – and he does grade out well in terms of projected Plus/Minus. That said, I still prefer some of the other options in this range.

If you’re looking for minutes at a cheap price tag, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is your guy. He’s projected for more than 34 minutes in our NBA Models, making him easily the cheapest player with more than 28.1 projected minutes. KCP isn’t the greatest per-minute producer, but he has scored at least 26.75 DraftKings points in three of his past five games.

Bruce Brown’s minutes aren’t nearly as secure as KCP’s, but he makes up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s been able to maintain that level during the postseason. Brown’s minutes also trended up towards the end of the Suns’ series, so it’s possible he plays a bit more than expected vs. the Lakers.

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Dennis Schroder ($4,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Schroder is basically the Lakers’ version of KCP. He’s been used as a defensive stopper during the postseason, which could make him important in this series vs. Murray. Schroder also brings a bit to the table offensively, averaging 0.78 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He hasn’t displayed much scoring upside during the playoffs, but he has that ability if needed.
• Lonnie Walker IV ($4,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Walker was one of the heroes for the Lakers in the last round, particularly with his 15-point fourth quarter in Game 4. He’s carved out a bigger role as the postseason has progressed, playing at least 24.4 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s also increased his production to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, giving him some viability at his current price tag.
• Rui Hachimura ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Hachimura has been a boom-or-bust option during the playoffs, but there have been far more busts than booms. His upside keeps him on the DFS radar, but he’s projected for just 20 minutes in Game 1.
• Jeff Green ($3,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Green provides all the same downsides as Hachimura without any of the same upside. That makes him pretty tough to roster at just -$400 cheaper on DraftKings.
• Wenyen Gabriel ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Gabriel is the Lakers’ backup center, but he was basically a non-factor vs. the Warriors. There’s a chance he plays a bit more vs. Jokic and the Nuggets, but he’s much more expensive than I’m willing to pay.
• Jarred Vanderbilt ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Vanderbilt started the last series by guarding Steph Curry defensively, but the Lakers pretty quickly shifted those responsibilities elsewhere. As a result, Vanderbilt’s playing time diminished in each game, culminating in less than four minutes in Game 6. He’s projected for just eight minutes in our NBA Models for Game 1 vs. the Nuggets.
• Christian Braun ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Braun has had a solid rookie season, and he’s going to be a part of the Nuggets’ future. He also has a smidge of upside at his current price tag across the industry. He’s expected to see more playing time than the rest of the options in this price range, and he played nearly 20 minutes in Game 5 vs. the Suns. With that much playing time, he could approach double-figure fantasy points.
• Malik Beasley ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): The most likely scenario for Beasley on Tuesday is a DNP-CD, but he’s still my favorite of the min-priced options on DraftKings. He can serve as an offensive spark plug off the bench if Darvin Ham calls his number, and he’s a better per-minute producer than the other options in this price range. He can help with stars-and-scrubs roster constructions, and he should command virtually no ownership.