Thursday features a one-game showdown slate between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz. Despite coming into tonight on a three-game losing streak, the Mavericks are nearly double-digit road favorites. With a game total of over 230 points, expect plenty of fantasy points to be up for grabs in this matchup.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
There are only two players in the stud pricing tier, and both are in the Mavericks’ backcourt. Luka Doncic leads the way by a wide margin in projected ceiling and captain ownership. He is the clear-cut top pay-up option for this showdown slate with a 54.7 DraftKings points per game average this season.
Doncic comes into tonight dealing with a minor knee contusion. He has played through the injury without missing a game and is probable for tonight’s action. Keep an eye on his status in case anything changes.
The injury could be to blame, but Doncic has shot the ball very poorly through the first 11 games. He is shooting just 41.9% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
This is the first season in his last three where he is averaging fewer than 32 points per game. Water will find its level, and Doncic will get back to his normal averages throughout the year. What better time to get back on track than this matchup?
The Jazz currently rank 27th in defensive rating and are allowing 119 points per game. Doncic was unable to take advantage of this matchup in their first meeting, shooting a putrid 5-for-22 from the field, but this is a fantastic bounce-back spot. In a showdown lineup, raw points matter more. Doncic is an elite option.
Doncic’s backcourt teammate Kyrie Irving is $2,600 cheaper and is the only other player who has a price tag above $8,800. Irving has been sensational this season, shooting a career-best 54.5% from the field and 54.1% from behind the arc. In his last five games, Irving has shot 63.1% from the field while averaging 27.4 points per game. He is the clear second scoring option on this Mavericks team.
Two games ago against an elite Nuggets defense, Irving erupted for a season-high 43 points, shooting 17-for-22 from the field. He is capable of displaying a ceiling performance, making him an ideal tournament option at the Captain slot. When Irving is aggressive offensively, he can compete with Doncic in fantasy production. In his top five games this season, Irving is averaging 53 DraftKings points per game.
The only downside for Irving is his peripherals. He is averaging fewer than five rebounds and assists per game, which is the main reason why Doncic has the upper hand between the two. If Doncic is not a pure lock in lineups, then Irving needs to be a priority. I would recommend being overweight on Irving at the Captain slot and underweight in the FLEX slot. Take advantage of his ceiling performances.
Nearly all lineups will have, and should have, at least one of Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving in them.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The mid-range is absolutely flooded with Utah Jazz players. After Doncic and Irving, the next five players in the salary list are on the Jazz. Make sure to choose wisely in this mid-range.
Lauri Markkanen leads this tier with an $8,800 price tag and the fourth-highest projected ceiling on the slate. He is three games in from his most recent injury and has not played that well. His aggressiveness is lacking, which is bringing down his fantasy production. It will be difficult to pay this salary when his teammate John Collins is right below him with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Collins has been the best player for the Jazz this season. He leads the team in scoring and has recorded a double-double in four of his last six games. In Collins’ most recent game, he dominated with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and a season-high 57.5 DraftKings points. He shot 12-for-19 from the field and 3-for-6 from distance. Collins is the preferred Jazz player to pay up for on this showdown slate.
Second-year pro Keyonte George has been given much more responsibility this season and has delivered with career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists per game. However, his shooting numbers have been awful. George has seen his usage rate rise to 25.1%, but he is only shooting 32.3% from the field and 29.3% from deep. The volume is there, and that is what we are looking for from a fantasy standpoint.
Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson capture the next two options. Their projections and salaries are nearly identical. Sexton has taken over the starting shooting guard position for the Jazz over Clarkson, but both players are still projected to play 29 minutes. While both players are firmly in play, Clarkson has the slight edge. With Kessler out of the lineup this season, Clarkson has a +1.3% usage rate and +2.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus, both of which are the second-highest on the team. Our projection model actually prefers both Sexton and Clarkson over George tonight.
Finally, back to a few Mavericks’ role players. Klay Thompson has surprisingly been a consistent fantasy producer this season. He is coming off a revenge game against the Warriors where he scored 22 points while shooting 6-for-12 from downtown. Thompson is the third scoring option for the Mavericks and is still shooting over 60% of his field goal attempts from behind the arc. This is an elite matchup for the sharpshooter, with the Jazz allowing opponents to attempt nearly 40 3-pointers per game this season.
Mavericks’ big men Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively are next in the mid-range pricing tier just above the punt options. Both will benefit with PJ Washington being doubtful to play tonight. They are projected to play 24 minutes apiece. Lively is $600 cheaper with a higher projected Plus/Minus, while Gafford has a +5.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Washington out of the lineup this season. It is recommended not to play Gafford and Lively together, but getting exposure to one of them per lineup is a great option.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kyle Filipowski ($4,800): Duke rookie Kyle Filipowski has seen an increase in his minutes the last two games without Walker Kessler. He is coming off his best game of the season, scoring 18 points and pulling down six rebounds while shooting 7-for-11 from the field. This is a great matchup for a sneaky Filipowski play, with the Mavericks ranking 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.1% this year.
- Naji Marshall ($4,600): Marshall has started in each game that PJ Washington has missed this season. Being slated to start tonight, Marshall is projected to play 30 minutes and has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He has scored double-digit points in three of his last five games while averaging 12.6 points per game during that time. Marshall is a fantastic punt option.
- Isaiah Collier ($3,800): Finally getting a little bit of playing time, rookie Isaiah Collier has averaged 20 minutes in each of his last two games played. He produced one great game and one dud and should be prioritized for tournaments only. Collier’s salary has come up quite a bit, but he is still projected to play 14 minutes and be a valuable punt play. At $3,800, Collier’s ownership will be pretty low.
- Spencer Dinwiddie ($3,000): Veteran point guard Spencer Dinwiddie has really taken a backseat in the Mavericks rotation. It does not help that he has shot the ball very poorly at 34.1% from the field and 28.6% from distance. All of that is baked into his salary tonight, where Dinwiddie only costs $3,000 in the FLEX slot. Projected to play 17 minutes, Dinwiddie is an average punt option to target.
- Cody Williams ($2,800): Cody Williams is another rookie who has gotten an uptick in playing time recently for the Jazz. The 6’7″ forward has started in seven of his 10 games played but is off to a really slow start shooting the ball. He has only one game with double-digit points and is averaging 22.1 minutes per game. Williams may start again but do not expect much from the rookie forward.
- Johnny Juzang ($2,200): Third-year pro from UCLA Johnny Juzang is also starting to see more playing time. Juzang put up a dud in his last game, scoring zero points in 13 minutes, but in his four previous games, he averaged 11.8 points per game. The Jazz are looking for production anywhere they can find it. Juzang is another cheap way to get exposure to the Jazz’s pitiful roster on this slate.
- Jaden Hardy ($1,800): Surprisingly, Jaden Hardy has seen the biggest boost in production when PJ Washington is unable to play. He has a team-high +5.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus when Washington is off the floor this season. Priced under $2,000, every little nugget helps. He also has the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate making him the best punt option to target in this game tonight.
- Quentin Grimes ($1,600): Last but not least is another Mavericks’ backup guard in Quentin Grimes. Playing his first season with the team, Grimes is coming off a season-high 29 minutes in his attempt to slow down Stephen Curry. It did not work, but Grimes is a valuable asset when the team needs him. He is projected for 16 minutes tonight and is only slightly lower in projections to Jaden Hardy.
