Thursday features Game 2 of the Second-Round Western Conference between the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Lakers held off the Warriors in Game 1 with a 117-112 victory despite attempting 14 fewer field goals. Looking to bounce back at home, the Warriors are six-point favorites as they try to tie this series at one game apiece. With a 227.5-point game total, expect another up-tempo environment with plenty of possessions.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Pick
Three players are priced well above everyone else on DraftKings and FanDuel: Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, and LeBron James. Captain and MVP ownership will flock to these three, and rightfully so, as no other player can match these guys from a ceiling perspective.
Davis has the highest projection in our NBA Models, as he has put together one of the best playoff runs thus far. Davis has averaged 22.1 points, 15 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks through his first seven contests while shooting over 50% from the field. He is second to James on the team in usage rate (24.3%) and minutes per game (37.4).
Davis exploited this matchup in Game 1 with 30 points, 23 rebounds, five assists, and four blocks as he shot 11 of 19 from the field while playing 44 minutes. He led all players with over 75 DraftKings points, proving his massive ceiling. Davis is the only player projected to play over 40 minutes, and while he may not repeat Game 1’s performance, this is a great matchup.
After scoring 50 points in Game 7 vs. the Kings, Curry followed that up with 27 points and six 3-pointers vs. the Lakers. In a borderline must-win Game 2 for the Warriors, expect Curry to come out firing. He leads the Warriors with a 31.9% usage rate during the playoffs, scoring well over 30 points per game.
Among the three pay-up options, Curry has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel. In addition to piling up the points, Curry has also averaged 6.1 assists and six rebounds per game this season. With an explosion game always lurking, Curry is an excellent option in all formats. If the Warriors win Game 2, it will likely be because of Curry.
LeBron has deferred a bit more to his teammates during his 20th professional season, but he still has the potential for big performances. In Game 1, James recorded a double-double with 22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, and three blocks. He played 40 minutes and had 47.75 DraftKings points despite shooting 9 of 24 from the field.
Shooting from the perimeter has been the biggest struggle for James recently. Over his last six games, James is a dreadful 6-41 from behind the arc. James has the potential for a ceiling game if his shot starts to fall. Despite his shooting woes, James has still averaged 22 points and 11 rebounds over that six-game stretch.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
There are some pretty wide pricing discrepancies between the two sites in the midrange.
Klay Thompson has one of the most significant pricing differences. He’s priced at $12,300 on DraftKings and only $9,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating. Like Curry, Thompson had six 3-pointers in Game 1 on 16 attempts from behind the arc. Not afraid to search out his shot, Thompson can get scorching hot from the perimeter even if he doesn’t provide many peripherals. Prioritize Thompson on FanDuel with his very cheap price tag and high usage rate.
Draymond Green was disgusted with his Game 1 play, despite stuffing the stat sheet with six points, seven assists, four rebounds, three blocks, and one steal. He got into foul trouble, which has been a common theme for Green recently. Normally, FanDuel is the best spot to target Green, given the additional point for defensive statistics. However, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus among all players on DraftKings. If he stays out of foul trouble, Green can score in a variety of ways.
Since Game 3 of the first round, Kevon Looney has been a rebounding machine. Over his last six games, Looney is averaging 18.8 rebounds per game with four 20-rebound outings. He has recorded a double-double in his past two games. The Lakers have been a great defensive and rebounding team since the trade deadline, but Looney is playing too well to ignore.
D’Angelo Russell is typically a boom-or-bust fantasy producer, but he has been fairly consistent in the playoffs. Russell attempted a playoff-high 19 field goals in Game 1, scoring 19 points on a 26.4% usage rate. His ownership is expected to be reasonable, but Russell leads the team with 5.9 assists and 2.4 made 3-pointers per game.
After being out for two full months, Andrew Wiggins hasn’t missed a beat. Playing like he did in the NBA Finals last season, Wiggins is averaging 17.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, and a team-high 1.6 blocks per game during the postseason. His midrange salary is more appealing on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. Wiggins has historically gotten up for games against LeBron, averaging 21.4 points while shooting 53.7% from the field and 47.9% from downtown.
Since the All-Star Break, Austin Reaves has led the Lakers in assists per game and has had several big moments. In the first round, Reaves averaged 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and five assists per game. His Game 1 was mediocre, but expect him to bounce back as the Warriors will adjust on Davis and will leave more pick-and-roll scoring opportunities for Reaves.
Reaves also fares well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Looking for a rollercoaster ride? Look no further than Jordan Poole, who can shoot the Warriors into and out of any game. Poole made six of his 11 attempts in Game 1, finishing with 21 points and six assists. He scored 35 DraftKings, making him one of the best values on the slate. At $9,000 on DraftKings, Poole has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the Captain position. Poole’s playing time is based on how well he plays, so he is a priority in tournaments instead of cash games.
Known for his defense, Jarred Vanderbilt spent most of his minutes on Curry in Game 1. Vanderbilt responded with eight points, six rebounds, two assists, two blocks, and two steals in 26 minutes. His playing time could continue to increase in an effort to contain Curry, which boosts his fantasy outlook. There is a big price drop-off from Poole to Vanderbilt, making him even more intriguing.
Dennis Schroder erupted for 19 points in Game 1, shooting 5-10 from the field and a team-best 9-10 from the free-throw line. Schroder plays with great pace and has taken the sixth-man role on this Lakers team. Our NBA Models have Schroder projected to play 28 minutes and rate him as one of the best salary savers on the slate.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Rui Hachimura ($5,700 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Hachimura was one of the Lakers’ best players in Round 1, scoring 14.5 points per game while shooting 56.9% from the field and 52.4% from behind the arc. He surprisingly played just 11 minutes in Game 1, but he had six points, one rebound, and one assist, making both of his field goal attempts.
- Donte DiVincenzo ($5,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): DiVincenzo has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in six of his eight playoff games. Prioritize DiVincenzo on DraftKings, where he is much easier to fit into lineup builds. He and Gary Payton II do lots of the little things to win games, but DiVincenzo has more scoring upside.
- Gary Payton II ($4,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Payton has seen his minutes rise throughout the playoffs, and the Warriors rely on him to do some of the dirty work. He averaged 14.1 DraftKings points per game in the first-round series, so don’t be discouraged by his 8.75 points in Game 1. Payton is one of the better values on the slate.
- Moses Moody ($3,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Moody played 15+ minutes in Games 6 and 7 against the Kings but only logged six minutes in Game 1 in this series. His youth provides a change of pace to the Warriors’ offense. He could see a bit more playing time on Thursday.
- Troy Brown Jr. ($3,300 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Playing low-teens in minutes, Brown typically provides peripherals, but in Game 1, all he had was one 3-pointer. He recorded three or more rebounds in five of six games against the Grizzlies. 67% of Brown’s field goal attempts come from downtown, also providing upside.
- Wenyen Gabriel ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Backing up Davis won’t provide many opportunities for playing time, as Gabriel only played four minutes in Game 1. He can match up well with the Warriors’ frontcourt and can produce in limited minutes, but Gabriel is a risky play unless you think this game turns into a blowout.
- JaMychal Green ($2,700 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): After barely playing in the Warriors’ first-round series, Green played eight minutes and converted on two of his four 3-point attempts. He only finished with six points and a personal foul, but targeting Green in a stars-and-scrubs lineup makes some sense.
- Malik Beasley ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Unlike Green, it was a little surprising to see Beasley not log any minutes in Game 1 after averaging 10.8 minutes per game in the first-round series against the Grizzlies. The Lakers won Game 1 despite shooting 6-25 from behind the arc. Beasley could pick up another DNP-CD, but the Lakers could use his outside shooting.
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