The Western Conference Finals are back in action on Thursday night after the Timberwolves successfully avoided elimination in Game 4 and forced a trip back to Minnesota for Game 5. There are multiple angles to examine, but in the big picture, the Mavs still lead the series 3-1 and are one game away from moving on to the NBA Finals. The Mavericks already took two games from the Wolves in Minnesota earlier in the series, but the T-Wolves are 5-point favorites in Game 5, and the game total is set at 209.5.
On the injury front, Dallas was without Dereck Lively II (neck) in Game 4, but he is questionable to return in Game 5. Maxi Kleber (shoulder) was able to return after more than three weeks on the sidelines due to an AC joint separation, and he does not have any injury designation for Game 5. Both Luka Doncic (knee/ankle) and Mike Conley (calf) are on the injury report as questionable, but they will likely continue to play through their nagging injuries.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
As he has throughout the series, Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a Utility spot. He comes at a very high salary but continues to put up the best numbers in the series by a wide enough margin that he still demands consideration.
In Game 4, Luka had a 28-point triple-double and finished with 68.75 DraftKings points. He has put up at least 60 DraftKings points in each of his last six games and exceeded salary-based expectations in Showdown contests in 15 of his 16 games in the playoffs. Throughout the playoffs, he has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute but has turned that up to 1.56 DraftKings points per minute during his last six contests. Luka’s usage during that span has spiked to 32.3%, while he has played 41.7 minutes per game.
Doncic is continuing to play through multiple injury issues, but they haven’t slowed him down to this point in the series. He put the blame for the Game 4 loss on himself and could definitely use the extra rest before the Finals, so I expect him to go all-out with another big game on Thurdsay. In the most recent game in Minnesota, Doncic dropped a series-high 69.0 DraftKings points while leading his team to a one-point win.
Even though he blamed himself, it’s hard to blame the loss on Luka since he put up huge numbers. One of the big differences in Game 4, though, was that he didn’t get as much help from his backcourt mate, Kyrie Irving. Irving played very well in the first three games in the series, with at least 20 points and 35 DraftKings points in each game, but he fell short in Game 4 with just 16 points and 25 DraftKings points. He shot a woeful 6-for-18 from the field and just 1-for-6 from long-range after tearing up the nets in the first three games of the series.
In the entire postseason, Kyrie has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. He isn’t nearly as reliable as Luka, and his ceiling isn’t nearly as high, but he’ll have to bounce back if the Mavs want to move on and face his former squad from Boston. Irving has shown he has big games in him, and he can be a solid Utility play in Thursday’s matchup since he brings the third-highest median and ceiling projections in the contest.
Anthony Edwards has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the slate behind just Luka, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and third-highest Pts/Sal at a utility spot. Edwards’ efficiency has been down in this series, but he has over 50 DraftKings points in three of the four games.
He fell just one assist short of a triple-double in Game 4 and was much more aggressive in the two games in Dallas after a surprisingly passive Game 2 performance. Edwards will need to step up and carry the Wolves again in Game 5 and has proven he can go off for monster numbers. He had over 62 DraftKings points in three games during the playoffs, and he’s the only player who comes close to matching Luka’s upside. He’s the most viable pivot if you are passing on Doncic, but he hasn’t regularly reached that level of production, making building around him a higher risk, although he does come at a lower salary.
After a miserable first three games of the series, Karl-Anthony Towns turned things around in Game 4. He scored under 17 points in each of the first three games but dropped 25 in 30 minutes in Game 4. He was limited with foul trouble and ultimately fouled out, but his shooting was much improved. He shot 69% from the field and 80% from long range after shooting 28% from the field in the first three games and 14% on three-pointers. With his limited minutes, though, his fantasy output was right on par with his production all series.
He has between 30 and 35 DraftKings points in every contest in this series, but if he can stay out of foul trouble and keep his shooting hot, he definitely has the potential for more. He has the fourth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus. If his shooting woes are behind him, he could be the key to this slate, but I expect a little regression, which could make some of the mid-range picks better per-dollar plays.
If you roll with Luka at Captain, including any other star will force you to dig through punt plays for the rest of your lineup. That strategy can work if Luka and the other included star go off, but it makes more sense to balance out your Utility spots if you go with Luka as your centerpiece. If you go with one of the other stars as Captain and Luka as a Utility play, you can still add a few cheaper starters before hitting the bargain bin.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
After the the four stars, Rudy Gobert has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in Thursday’s matchup, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only Luka. Gobert had his second double-double of the series in Game 4 and finished with 29.5 DraftKings points.
In the playoffs, The Stifle Tower has produced 0.9 DraftKings points per minute while playing 34.6 minutes per game. He has over 28 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games and is normally a reliable producer since so much of his production comes from his non-scoring numbers. He is a good part of a balanced roster built around Luka or another star in the Captain spot, but he doesn’t bring quite enough upside to earn a look in that spot himself.
Since both Gobert and Towns were much better in Game 4, Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid went back to his reduced role, playing 20 minutes and only managing six points and 15.25 DraftKings points. In the three games before that, he played over 24 minutes and scored over 13 points in each game with a high point of 34.5 DraftKings points in Game 2.
If you’re fading the other Timberwolves big men, Reid makes sense due to the negative correlation. If you think Towns can continue his turnaround, though, Reid’s role will likely stay limited.
In the Timberwolves’ backcourt, Mike Conley continues to play through his calf injury. In the four games in this series, he has had two huge games with 18 points and 35.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 and 14 points and 36.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. In the other two games, his minutes and production have been more limited, and he only had 18.25 DraftKings points in Game 1.
Although he can be a boom-or-bust play, especially with the injury, he does bring some sneaky upside if he’s able to stay on the floor. He has a higher projected Plus/Minus than any other player with a salary under $7,000 and usually provides good steals and assists production to supplement his scoring. He has double-digit points in seven of his last eight games and is one of the better mid-range picks to include.
When Conley struggled in Game 1, Jaden McDaniels stepped up with 24 points and 37 DraftKings points, but he has been relatively quiet since then. While he did score double-digit points and hit multiple three-pointers in each of the last two games, he finished under 20 DraftKings points. He’s a boom-or-bust play from just under $6,000, but he doesn’t bring as much consistent value as Conley.
Most of the Mavericks’ offense goes through Luka, but there have been a few of his teammates that have stepped up so far this series. One of the key story lines to watch in the Mavs’ supporting cast is the availability of Derrick Lively II. Lively was excellent in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series, producing 30.75 and 28.75 DraftKings points in 27 minutes off the bench. In Game 3, he took a knee to the head after just nine minutes and sat out Game 4. So far in the playoffs, the rookie has produced 0.97 DraftKings points per minute and had exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight before having to leave early. If he’s back in Game 4, Lively will be one of the best plays under $6,000.
If Lively isn’t able to return, it will mean more work for Daniel Gafford, who had 31.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes in Game 4. Gafford has produced 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason and will be a good play if more minutes come his way on Thursday. If Lively can return, he will be a slightly better option, but both bigs get enough time to be solid mid-range targets.
P.J. Washington had a huge series against the Thunder, showing his ceiling as a scorer, but he has been kept relatively quiet in this series. While he has scored at least 10 points in every game, he has still been held to 30 DraftKings points or fewer in five straight after exceeding that number in his four previous games. Washington definitely has a high ceiling, but he’s an expensive Utility option based on how quiet he has been against Minnesota.
In the other spot in the Mavs’ starting five, Derrick Jones continues to log heavy minutes but not put up big numbers. He had his best game of the series in Game 4 and still only had 23.25 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. He’s an attractive option because he consistently plays so many minutes, but this matchup hasn’t been an especially good one for him. If you have to spend under $5,000 in a Utility spot, Jones is a relatively reliable option even though his upside is limited.
If you’re looking for a Captain from the middle range, our projections indicate Gobert and Conley are the best ways to go, with Jones another cheap option if you want to stack stars in your Utility spots.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kyle Anderson ($3,600): Anderson’s salary has risen a little bit, but he still brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries under $6,000. He outpaces many starting options in Projected Plus/Minus and is a great way to make your lineups work. In a utility spot, he trails only Gobert and Conley in Pts/Sal and is only behind Gobert in Pts/Sal as a Captain’s Pick. He’s the key value play in this matchup and brings lots of upside after producing at least 17 DraftKings points and playing at least 17 minutes in each game in this series. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those matchups.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($2,600): When Conley is limited, NAW is the Timberwolves’ next option to step up. He would be an elite value if Conley is out or limited, and he has produced double-digit DraftKings points in each of his last three games, making him a viable punt play even if Conley plays through his questionable tag as expected.
- Josh Green ($2,800): Green had 18 DraftKings points in Game 2 but has been held under 10 DraftKings points for the rest of the series. He typically plays around 20 minutes a game but has low usage. If he gets more time, he has good upside, but not nearly as much as Anderson in this price range.
- Jaden Hardy ($2,400): Hardy brought instant offense in Game 3, scoring 13 points in 12 minutes for 15.25 DraftKings points. He has reached double-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five games with at least 9.0 DraftKings points in every game this series. He is a better option than Green, although his path to playing time remains blocked by Luka and Kyrie, which definitely caps his upside.
- Maxi Kleber ($2,200): Kleber played 13 minutes in his return and totaled 4.75 DraftKings points. He doesn’t have an obvious spot to grow into, although he did show good upside in the Clippers series, with over 11 DraftKings points in four of five games before getting injured. Lively and Gafford will likely split the minutes at center, but Kleber could get some work at power forward, backing up Washington. He has potential, although he’s risky since his role is undefined.
