Thursday features Game 5 of the Western Conference finals between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors. The Mavericks avoided elimination in Game 4, but now they’ll have to do it in San Francisco. The Warriors are listed as seven-point favorites, and they’re approximately -3500 to win the series. No team has ever overcome an 0-3 deficit in the NBA playoffs, so the Mavericks will need to make history if they’re going to make the Finals.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Luka Doncic was officially named to the All-NBA First Team for the third consecutive year. Not too shabby for a player in just his fourth professional season. Doncic has been a fantasy monster basically since arriving in the USA, and he’s taken his game to another level during the postseason. He did have a clunker in Game 1 vs. the Warriors, finishing with just 34.75 DraftKings points over 34.9 minutes, but that stands out as a significant outlier. He’s scored at least 61.0 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, including at least 66.25 in his previous three games vs. the Warriors.
As good as Doncic has been recently, he has the potential to be even better on Thursday. He managed 70.5 DraftKings points in his last outing despite shooting just 10-26 from the field and 3-11 from 3-point range. Doncic has the potential to eclipse 40 minutes in an elimination game, and he’s averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. No one else on this slate can come close to that mark, making him the clear top choice at Captain.
Steph Curry offers a bit of salary savings compared to Doncic, but he simply doesn’t possess the same upside. While Doncic has to do everything for the Mavericks, Curry benefits from one of the best supporting casts in the league. Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins are all capable of easing his scoring burden, while Draymond Green does everything else.
While Curry might not have the same upside as Doncic, he’s still put together some excellent games of late. He’s racked up at least 47.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, with the lone exception being the blowout loss in his last outing. Curry should see a nice spike in playing time if Thursday’s game is more competitive, and he’s routinely paid off his price tag in games with regular minutes this postseason.
Pairing Doncic and Curry is the clear preferred strategy if possible. They own the clear top marks in median and ceiling projection, and they rank first and second in terms of projected Plus/Minus. Stars and scrubs is often the preferred lineup construction in the single-game format, and these are easily the top two studs in our NBA Models.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Jalen Brunson is the third-most-expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s hard to justify at those prices. Brunson has been excellent for the Mavericks this postseason, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games. That said, most of those contests came with Brunson at a much lower price tag. He’s near the bottom of the board in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and there are a handful of cheaper players with comparable ceiling and median projections. However, he’s still expected to be one of the highest-owned options on the slate, making him a prime fade candidate.
Klay Thompson is a boom-or-bust type of fantasy option. He derives most of his fantasy scoring from his 3-point shooting ability, which means he will struggle to return value on nights where his scoring volume or efficiency is down. That’s been the case for most of this series, with Thompson posting a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games.
The emergence of other scoring threats for the Warriors has limited Thompson to 13 attempts or fewer in three of four games. If his volume remains that low, it will be tough for him to pay off his current salary.
Andrew Wiggins has been one of the unsung heroes for the Warriors during the playoffs. The team outscored the Mavericks by 66 points with Wiggins on the floor during the first three games, which was easily the top mark on the team.
He’s developed into a better player during his tenure with the Warriors, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of the past five games. He’s also developed into more of a threat in the peripheral categories, increasing his floor and ceiling. Wiggins stands out as one of the better pure values on DraftKings, where his $8,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Draymond Green was once one of the best fantasy big men in basketball, but those days are long in the past. He’s still capable of doing a bit of everything, but his scoring volume is basically non-existent at this point. Overall, he’s managed 31.25 DraftKings points or fewer in all four games vs. the Mavericks.
On a positive note, he did post his highest usage rate of the series in Game 4 at 20.1%. He racked up 30.0 DraftKings points in just 25.9 minutes, giving him a solid per-minute output. If he can continue that level of per-minute efficiency with a few additional minutes in Game 5, he has the potential to pay off his current salary.
Jordan Poole has been a breakout star this postseason. He filled in for Curry when the star point guard missed the beginning of the playoffs, and he’s maintained a healthy role off the bench. He’s shot a blistering 61.1% from the field and 41.2% from 3-point range during the series, and he’s averaged more points per game than Thompson despite averaging nearly seven fewer minutes per game.
Unfortunately, the lack of playing time does make him tough to trust. He needs to be hyper-efficient when on the court, and while that hasn’t been a problem so far, he is almost certainly due for some shooting regression. Even with his insane shooting numbers, he’s still posted a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on DraftKings. He’s not someone I’m prioritizing on this slate.
Kevon Looney started the postseason as a bit player for the Warriors, but he has been a significant factor for them recently. He moved into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs. the Grizzlies and has stayed there ever since. In his five games as a starter, he’s scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in three of them.
He’s been priced up to a point where he’s no longer free, but he still has some viability for fantasy purposes. Only Doncic, Curry, and Jonathan Kuminga have been more productive than Looney on a per-minute basis over the past month, and he’s projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models.
Dorian Finney-Smith was fantastic in his last outing. He finished with 34.5 DraftKings points over 38.9 minutes, but it’s hard to see that success continuing. He racked up 23 points on 9-13 shooting, which is simply unsustainable. DFS had scored just 24 points in the three previous games combined, so expect him to come back to reality on Thursday. Thanks to his massive workload, he’ll still have a shot at returning value, but expectations should be tempered.
Still, I’d much rather play Finney-Smith than Reggie Bullock. Both players are priced very similarly, but Bullock simply doesn’t have the same upside. He’s a pure 3-point shooting threat who provides very little in the other categories. He drilled six 3-pointers in his last outing, and he still finished with just 26.5 DraftKings points. His ceiling isn’t much higher than that, but his floor is cavernous.
Spencer Dinwiddie wasn’t needed in the Mavs’ last game, but he’s been a reliable scoring threat off the bench recently. He was instrumental in their massive Game 7 upset over the Suns, and he’s increased his usage rate to 24.1% in this series. That’s tied with Brunson for the second-highest mark on the team, and it would be even higher if not for a pedestrian mark of 20.5% in his last outing. Expect him to be more active in Game 5.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Maxi Kleber ($4,400 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel): Kleber is another massive regression candidate in Game 5. He managed just 27 total fantasy points through the first three games of this series before exploding for 33 in Game 4. His playing time has been down of late, as has his per-minute production. He’s one of the weaker options in this range.
- Otto Porter ($4,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Porter has missed most of the past two games for the Warriors, and he’s currently questionable for Game 5. That said, I have no problem firing him up if he’s active. Porter is one of the best per-minute producers in this range, averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. He was playing around 24 minutes per night before his injury, and he was priced as high as $5,400. That makes him a nice buy-low candidate if he’s in the lineup.
- Jonathan Kuminga ($2,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Kuminga moved back into the rotation following the injury to Porter, and he finished with 28.0 DraftKings points over 21.7 minutes in Game 5. Those numbers were inflated by the game turning into a blowout, but Kuminga should maintain a handful of minutes if Porter is out again. Given his elite per-minute efficiency, that would make him an appealing option.
- Davis Bertans ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Bertans isn’t playing many minutes for the Mavericks, but he’s typically very active when he’s on the floor. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 28.7% in two of his past three games, and most of his damage is done from behind the arc. If he knocks down a couple of 3-pointers, he has a path to viability.
- Dwight Powell ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Like Kleber, Powell’s minutes and efficiency have dropped off during the playoffs. He’s projected for just 10 minutes on this slate, and he hasn’t displayed the ability to pay off his price tag with that much playing time.
- Moses Moody ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Moody has been thrust into the fire in the Warriors’ past two games, and he’s held his own. He’s another player who would be more appealing with Porter out of the lineup, but he should see a few minutes regardless.
- Frank Ntilikina ($1,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Ntilikina got to play a bit more than usual in his last contest, but he should return to his typical role in Game 5. That should give him at least a few minutes, and he doesn’t need to do much to produce value.
