The NBA Conference Finals continue on Thursday with Game 2 of the Eastern Conference matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. Game 1 was a great game that needed overtime before Boston emerged victorious. The Celtics are 9-point favorites in Game 2 while the game total is set at 224.5 after Game 1’s total hit 261 with the additional minutes.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Celtics’ first Game 1 hero was Jaylen Brown for his heroics at the end of regulation, but in overtime, it was Jayson Tatum who stepped up and got the team the victory. Brown and Tatum will again be the focus of the Celtics’ offense in Game 2, especially with Kristaps Porzingis (calf) still sidelined but also nearing a return.
Tatum has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections in this contest, with Brown just behind him in each category. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a utility spot with Brown second behind him.
After his eight-point outburst in overtime, Tatum finished with 63.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 on 36 points, 12 rebounds. He has exceeded salary-based expectations with a double-double and over 60 DraftKings points in four straight games and has scored at least 33 points in three of those contests. In the playoffs, Tatum has produced 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 39.6 minutes per game. While Porzingis has been sidelined, he has been more active on the boards and has double-digit rebounds in nine of his 11 games this postseason.
In five head-to-head matchups with the Pacers, Tatum is now averaging over 60 DraftKings points per game. He’s a top option to consider as your Captain pick if you can make your salary cap situation work, and even if you opt to go with another player at that spot, he has to be considered for a Utility spot with so many big games in a row and such a key role to play in this series.
While Tatum led the way, Brown stepped up as well in Game 1 with 49.25 DraftKings points on 26 points including his huge three-pointer to tie the game and send it into overtime. Brown has produced 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs to this point, averaging 35.8 minutes per game. He has been less consistent than Tatum but still has a very high ceiling. You can build your roster with Brown as Captain and Tatum as Utility to increase your salary space, or you can go with Tatum as Captain and Brown in Utility if you get creative with your other roster spots.
Tatum and Brown lead the way in our ceiling, median, and floor projections, with the Pacers’ two studs, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, ranking third and fourth, respectively. Both are a little overpriced compared to the Celtics’ Jays but are still strong options to consider.
Haliburton had 25 points and 10 assists in Game 1, posting 54.75 DraftKings points after not posting a double-double in the entire series against the Knicks. He has produced a very solid 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 35.3 minutes per game as the focal point of the Pacers’ offense. He showed the potential for spike games with two games over 30 points in the series with New York, and his first performance like that came in Game 2 at Madison Square Garden after the Pacers dropped Game 1 of that series. He will look to follow a similar script on Thursday.
Siakam also had a good fantasy night in Game 1, producing 52 DraftKings points on 24 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists. It was his first double-double and his first game with over 50 DraftKings points since the second game of the opening round. He is averaging 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs and leading the Pacers’ starters with a 25.6% usage rate in 35.3 minutes per game.
On Thursday, Siakam remains the cheapest of the four stud options and is actually relatively easy to build around as a Captain pick. He should continue to carry a big workload in Game 2 and has the highest usage projection of all the Pacers. Haliburton’s Projected Plus/Minus is just slightly higher than Siakam’s, but Siakam does come over $500 cheaper in a Utility spot.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The Celtics supporting cast also stepped up on Tuesday. Jrue Holiday not only played excellent defense but also chipped in a playoff-high 28 points to go with eight assists and seven rebounds for a postseason-best 54.75 DraftKings points. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games and is making the most of his significant workload in the Boston backcourt.
He is only averaging 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason but has played 38.0 minutes per game, which is second on the team behind only Tatum. Holiday has been key to the Celtics’ success all season, and if he stays so active on offense, he’ll be a great Utility or even Captain’s Pick option in Game 2.
Holiday’s backcourt-mate Derrick White fell just one assist short of a double-double and had 15 points on his way to another solid playoff performance of 42.5 DraftKings points in Game 1. He has scored double-digit points in 10 of his 11 playoff games and flashed the ability to take over a game with 38 points and 57 DraftKings points in Game 4 against Miami. He has been slightly more consistent than Holiday, but Holiday comes a little cheaper.
Al Horford rounds out the Celtics’ starting five and had a solid Game 1 with 15 points, six rebounds and 31.5 DraftKings points. He went off for 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 58.75 DraftKings points in the Celtics’ Game 5 win against the Cavs, but that performance seems like an outlier. He is capable of that kind of monster game and has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 29.5 minutes per game. If you can afford Holiday, he is still my preferred Celtics role player, but Horford is a solid pivot if you have to save salary.
On the other side, Myles Turner is the most expensive Pacers starter after their two studs. His $8,000 salary is a slight increase after his big Game 1 double-double that earned him 46.5 DraftKings points on 23 points and 10 rebounds. Turner has now exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games and is taking advantage of playing the Knicks without Mitchell Robinson and the Celtics without Porzingis. He has multiple blocked shots in six straight games and is doing good work on the glass to average 1.14 DraftKings points per minute during that span.
Former Celtic Aaron Nesmith continues to post strong showings against his former team and had 14 points and six boards to exceed salary-based expectations with 25 DKFP in Game 1. He has scored at least eight points in six straight games, averaging 0.72 DraftKings points per game in 31.5 minutes per game.
The other Pacers starter, Andrew Nembhard, had 20 points in Game 7 against the Knicks and followed that up with seven assists and 12 points in Game 1 for 26.75 DraftKings points in Game 1. He has at least 12 points and at least six assists while exceeding salary-based expectations in three straight.
Nembhard and Nesmith are both solid plays at just over $5,000, and I prefer them both to T.J. McConnell, who comes off the bench. McConnell has scored 12+ points and exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games. He only played 25 minutes, though, so his ceiling is limited compared to the Pacers’ starting five.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Payton Pritchard ($4,200): Pritchard has the second-highest median and ceiling projection of all players with salaries under $5,000 in Game 2 and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of players in that salary range. He had eight points in 22 minutes in Game 1 but is a little pricey as a punt play compared to the other options. If you have the salary, he has a higher ceiling than the other options listed here, but he does cost more.
- Luke Kornet ($3,400): Kornet continues to get playing time for Boston’s second unit and chipped in five points and four rebounds in 13 minutes in Game 1. He doesn’t have a super-high ceiling unless the game turns into a blowout or Horford gets into foul trouble.
- Obi Toppin ($3,800): Toppin is my top punt play on this slate since he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the players in this section and the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection. He’s a little cheaper than Pritchard and has had a more consistent role. In Game 1, he produced 24 DraftKings points on 15 points in 22 minutes. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 of the Pacers’ 13 playoff games while averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 19.0 minutes per game.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,800): Sheppard also continues to be a solid value play even though his salary did increase slightly for Game 2. He has played over 17 minutes in five straight contests but only managed 7.75 DraftKings points in Game 1. He’s sure enough to get minutes that he’s one of the best punt plays under $3,000, although his value isn’t projected to be as high as Toppin’s or Pritchard’s.
- Isaiah Jackson ($2,200): Jackson’s salary dropped $800 after he played just four minutes in Game 1. He has been very productive when he gets playing time, but his workload has been inconsistent in the postseason.
