After a week off since the Conference Finals, the NBA is ready to get back on the floor this Thursday as the NBA Finals tip off in Boston, where the Celtics host the Mavericks for Game 1. The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites, and the game total is set at 215.
Due to the layoff, both teams are fairly healthy coming into the NBA Finals. Luka Doncic (knee/ankle) is still listed as probable but has been playing through the injuries for the last several weeks. After missing over a month, Kristaps Porzingis is ready to return from his calf injury, and the Celtics have no one on their injury report at all.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
In Game 1, Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a utility spot. He has a 34.1% usage projection and is definitely worth considering, even though he comes with a massive salary of over $13,000.
Doncic has exceeded salary-based expectations in showdown contests in each of his last 10 games and is producing 1.44 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs. He was even better in the Western Conference Finals, averaging 1.58 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves with at least 60 DraftKings points in each of the five games in that series.
Luka had two massive games against the Celtics during the regular season, averaging 78.3 DraftKings points in their head-to-head meetings. He had a 33-point triple-double in their first meeting in Boston and a 37-point triple-double in their rematch in Dallas. The Celtics actually won both of those games, but Luka definitely proved he can succeed in this matchup.
Against his former team, Kyrie Irving struggled in the regular season, averaging just 33.5 DraftKings points in their two meetings. He’ll be fired up to face them again in the Finals and has proven to be clutch in his past playoff experience.
In the entire postseason, Kyrie has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and posted 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in the last round. He has been much less reliable than the other stars available, although he did show a high ceiling by scoring 36 points with over 50 DraftKings points for the fourth time in the playoffs to close out the Timberwolves and get the Mavs to the Finals. He’s worth a look as a utility play if you’re passing on paying up for Luka, but he’s a much higher-risk option.
For the home team, Jayson Tatum has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in Game 1 behind just Luka, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in a utility spot as well. His Pts/Sal are slightly ahead of Luka’s, though, since his salary is almost $2,000 lower in a utility spot.
In the playoffs, Tatum has produced 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and has exceeded salary-based expectations in Showdown contests in eight of his last nine games. He had one quiet game against the Pacers when his teammate Jaylen Brown carried the load, but Tatum produced over 55 DraftKings points in six of his last seven, highlighted by a performance of 70.5 DraftKings points in Game 3 against the Pacers.
He has been extremely impressive on the glass this postseason with 10 double-doubles in his last 12 games, and if his expanded minutes help him keep putting up that level of production, he is definitely worth a look as a pay-up Captain’s Pick if you can make the other pieces fit around him.
Tatum averaged 59.9 DraftKings points in his two games against Dallas in the regular season, and he should be ready to take his star power to the next level in this series.
Brown earned MVP honors for the Eastern Conference Finals, but his projections are the lowest of the four stars discussed in this section. He also has the lowest Pts/Sal in a utility spot even though his salary is only $9,400. He lit up the Pacers for 52.25 DraftKings points in his big Game 2 in that series and had at least 48 DraftKings points in two of the other three games in the series.
In the playoffs, Brown’s usage rate has been only barely behind Tatum’s, but his non-scoring contributions haven’t been as high as his teammate’s. He has produced 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs but has proven he has the potential to get hot and carry the team in specific games. For GPP contests, Brown makes sense to mix in due to his high ceiling, but he hasn’t been as consistent as Tatum.
For building a roster, it’s very hard to have Doncic as captain and Tatum as utility for salary cap space. Tatum as captain with Luka as utility makes things a little easier but still leaves under $5,000 per utility space for the rest of your roster. Using both as utility plays with a non-star captain is the best way to include both, although both stars have to come through with big games to make that strategy worth it. Brown or Irving have boom-or-bust potential but aren’t on the same production level as Tatum and Doncic.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
After the four stars, Derrick White has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in Game 1. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at a utility spot, behind only Luka and Tatum. He has the highest Pts/Sal at a utility spot and the second-highest in the captain spot, where he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
White has been excellent throughout the playoffs, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.7% usage rate and 20.1% assist rate. White has posted over 38 DraftKings points in five straight games coming into the Finals, and our projections indicate he’ll be a great value option in Game 1.
The return of Kristaps Porzingis could actually cut into White’s playing time since White’s usage and production gets a big bump when Porzingis is off the floor. However, we really have no idea how much work Porzingis is ready for after his long layoff. He’s a huge wild card in this matchup since he averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and had a significant workload before the injury, but may need some time to ramp back up. Playing Porzingis is very risky at his salary of $8,200 in a utility spot, but he does have a high ceiling and will likely have very low ownership until his role is clearer. His return will likely move Al Horford back to a reserve role, reducing his fantasy usage.
The return of Porzingis definitely clouds the picture in the Celtics’ frontcourt, but Jrue Holiday remains a great play in the backcourt. Holiday was excellent in the Eastern Conference Finals and will be a key part of the Celtics’ defensive plan to slow down Luka and Kyrie. Holiday has played the third-most minutes of all the Celtics in the playoffs and produced 0.8 DraftKings points per minute. In the last round, he had over 31 DraftKings points in each of the four games and went off for over 50 DraftKings points in Game 1.
Holiday has the most Pts/Sal in the captain’s spot and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in that spot. If you’re going with a non-star as your captain, he makes a lot of sense at this salary, leaving you plenty of space for Luka and Tatum as utility plays or whichever stars you think are set up for success. Unless you’re ready to leave Luka or Tatum off your roster, Holiday may be the best play at captain, especially if he can come close to matching how he started the last series.
The Mavericks’ supporting cast has been instrumental in getting them to this point in the playoffs, and some of them are good fantasy options, even though most of the Mavericks’ offense goes through Luka. The tandem of Derrick Lively II and Daniel Gafford at center has worked out beautifully for the Mavs, with both players putting up big games at different points. Gafford has been in the starting lineup, but Lively has been more productive lately. The Mavs have been flexible from round to round based on matchup and both are strong options to consider with their salaries under $6,000.
Of the two, our projections indicate Lively is the better option for Game 1. The rookie has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games in Showdown contests with his only letdown the game he left early due to injury. In the playoffs, Lively is producing a solid 1.03 DraftKings points per minute and is my favorite Mavericks option in the mid-range.
Lively doesn’t have the highest ceiling of the Mavs in this range, though, that belongs to P.J. Washington. Washington had a huge series against the Thunder, showing his ceiling as a scorer, but he settled back down in the series against Minnesota. He has spike upside but is best reserved for GPP lineups since he has been held to 30 DraftKings points or fewer in six straight after exceeding that number in his four previous games. He is a better play than Horford but not as good as Holiday in the same price range.
In the other spot in the Mavs’ starting five, Derrick Jones continues to log heavy minutes but not put up substantial numbers. He had double-digit points in only one game against Minnesota, with 23.25 DraftKings points in 34 minutes in Game 3. He does make some sense despite his low usage just because he gets so many minutes, but he’s unlikely to go off with a monster game.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Payton Pritchard ($3,400): Pritchard usually gets minutes off the bench for Boston and has the potential to put up big games depending on game flow. He is the most expensive value and punt play but also has the highest ceiling of this group. He didn’t go off for a big game against the Pacers since most games were close, but he did have some nice performances earlier in the playoffs.
- Sam Hauser ($2,200): Hauser is a much cheaper punt play off the Boston bench and has good upside since he usually gets several shots from long range. Hauser is more boom-or-bust than even Pritchard, but the salary relief he brings still makes him worth considering. Due to Hauser’s versatility and the return of Porzingis, it may just be Hauser, Pritchard, and Horford who see significant minutes in the Celtics’ second unit.
- Josh Green ($3,000): Green is the most expensive Mavericks’ sub and has been the most involved. He only reached double-digit DraftKings points once in the last series but does typically get about 20 minutes off the bench, which is enough to make him worth considering at $3,000.
- Jaden Hardy ($2,400): Hardy actually had double-digit DraftKings points in three of the five games against Minnesota and has proven he can provide instant offense when called upon. His minutes are more limited than Green’s, and he hasn’t played more than 15 minutes in any game this postseason. His activity and involvement when he’s on the floor gives him a higher ceiling than Green’s, but his floor is lower due to his limited minutes.
- Maxi Kleber ($2,400): Kleber was able to return after a prolonged absence for the final two games of the Western Conference Finals. He played 13 minutes in his return and nine minutes in Game 5. There isn’t an obvious spot for him in the Mavs’ current rotation, but if he gets minutes he does have upside. He’s riskier than even Hardy since his role is less certain.
