NBA

NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, May 5)

By Tyler Schmidt @tyschmidt4
May 5, 2024

The last first-round matchup of the NBA playoffs is Game 7 with the Cavaliers hosting the Magic. The home team has won every game of this series by an average of 15.5 points per game. It should not be a surprise that the home Cavaliers are favored by 3.5 points with the game total at 194 points.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

Coming off a 50-point performance in Game 6, Donovan Mitchell has the highest projected ceiling in our Player model Sunday. Mitchell shot a ridiculous 22-for-36 from the field and posted a 51.3% usage rate. Of the six playoff games, Mitchell has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them, with his only two misses in the road games where the Cavaliers were blown out. Mitchell is the best captain and flex option.

The usage rate for Mitchell is what stands out the most and makes him a sensational play. Even in his poor performances, Mitchell has posted over a 31% usage rate in each contest while averaging a 36.3% usage rate per game. He has been a scoring-dependent fantasy producer through the first six games, but it is impossible to ignore his upside. Despite his $17,400 salary, he has the highest ownership at captain.

After Mitchell in the stud section are the two most important players for the Magic – Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Outside of his atrocious nine-point performance in Game 4, Banchero has been fantastic in his first playoff series. In three of his last four games, he is averaging 32.3 points, 10 rebounds, and 53.5 DraftKings points per game. Similar to Mitchell, Banchero’s usage rate has ballooned to 36.6%.

Banchero led the Magic in points, rebounds, and assists during the regular season, and he is doing the same during the postseason. His projected ceiling isn’t far away from Mitchell’s, but the home player gets the slight advantage. Banchero is worthy of the multi-player slot and is the best Magic player to roster. Expect him to come out aggressive and attack the Cavaliers’ potentially weakened frontcourt.

Wagner has seen his salary increase throughout this series, and he has a proven ceiling. In Game 4 when Banchero was taking a backseat, Wagner erupted for a 34-point, 13-rebound double-double while shooting 13-for-17 from the field. The Magic ultimately got waxed in that game, but Wagner has been a great secondary scorer to Banchero. His production has been promising in his first playoff appearance.

The biggest news of this matchup is the status of Jarrett Allen. He has missed each of the last two games in this series with a rib injury and is questionable to play Sunday’s Game 7. Allen is a respectable $9,000 if he is able to suit up, and he is averaging 17.0 points and 13.8 rebounds per game in his four games played. If Allen is out, Evan Mobley is one of the biggest beneficiaries and is a reasonable $9,800 on Sunday.

In his five games played during the regular season without Allen, Mobley averaged a double-double with 15.4 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. He is coming off a putrid Game 5, where he totaled three points and six rebounds despite playing 34 minutes. Mobley’s biggest contribution was on the defensive side of the ball, where he recorded five blocks. Expect a bounceback game from Mobley on Sunday, especially if Allen is out.

NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks

Leading the mid-range is Cavaliers’ point guard Darius Garland. He has clearly benefited from Jarrett Allen missing the last two games. During that time, Garland has seen an increase in usage rate and playing time, while averaging 22 points, six rebounds, and five assists per game. His salary hasn’t budged since the last two games where he captured a positive Plus/Minus. Garland is a strong play in all formats.

Jalen Suggs is coming off one of his best games of the series. The combo guard failed to slow down Donovan Mitchell, but was able to pour in 22 points on his own, including six made 3-pointers. The perimeter has been the area to attack this Cavaliers defense most of the season, since they are allowing opponents to shoot 37.1% from behind the arc. Suggs can take advantage of this backcourt matchup.

Speaking of sharpshooters, it is nice to see Max Strus not solely be scoring-dependent in DFS. In the last two games, Strus is averaging seven rebounds per game to go along with his 13 points per game. Over 65% of his field-goal attempts have come from distance, and that total has jumped to nearly 70% during this series. It won’t take much for Strus to pay off his $6,800 price tag, especially if he is on fire from deep.

Not only has Wendell Carter been playing more minutes recently, but he has had plenty of success with Jarrett Allen not controlling the paint. In the last two games, Carter is averaging nearly a double-double with nine points and 10 rebounds per game. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and a 95% Bargain Rating. Projected to play 32 minutes Sunday, Carter is simply too cheap at his $5,800 salary.

Despite failing to score a point for the first time all series, Jonathan Isaac was still productive, grabbing nine rebounds and being a pest defensively. If Gary Harris is out again with his hamstring injury, expect Isaac to draw another start. He has displayed the ability to record double-digit points and nearly double-digit rebounds already in this matchup. $4,800 is a great price tag for Isaac if he is starting again Sunday.

After averaging 23.8 minutes per game through the first five games, Caris LeVert took a backseat in Game 6, playing only seven minutes. The Cavaliers decided to go with Isaac Okoro and Marcus Morris instead of him, which is concerning. Our model has LeVert projected for 18 minutes, but make sure to monitor this situation. LeVert’s salary has dipped to $4,400, making him an elite value play if his playing time is secured.

The last player in the mid-range is Magic backup center Moritz Wagner. He has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in each game of this series, but he only has a positive Plus/Minus in three of his six games played. He has seen his playing time fluctuate in this series, but he can be productive both scoring in the paint and on the glass. Take a flier on Wagner in tournaments, but he cannot be trusted in cash games.