Sunday features Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Boston has lost consecutive games only once since the All-Star break and will look to maintain that trend after dropping Game 6. In Game 7s, the home team is 105-28. Miami is the home team on Sunday. The Vegas dashboard has Boston favored by 2.5 points with the total at 195.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Jayson Tatum ($16,500 CPT/$11,000 UTIL) has gone for at least 50 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. In the playoffs, he’s exceeded that mark in 10 of 17 contests with two above 60. He’s played 45 and 44 minutes in the last two games, and a similar workload is likely in an elimination game. His usage rate was only 22.5% last game, yet he scored 30 points on a playoff-low 12 field-goal attempts. The Celtics have lost five times this playoffs. After a loss, Tatum has gone for 29, 30, 46, 27, and 31 points. His usage rate was at least 30% in four of those games with two above 40%.
Jimmy Butler ($16,200 CPT/$10,800 UTIL) is coming off an 81.8-DraftKings-points performance. In the prior three games, his usage rate was in the 20% range as he was dealing with a knee issue. He looked spry in Game 6, as the usage rate spiked up to 32.7% and he finished with 47 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, four steals, and one block. Now, a repeat performance shouldn’t be expected since he shot 16-for-29 from the field and 4-for-8 from downtown. He attempted at least 20 shots in 12 prior games and hoisted up over five three-pointers in only five games. On the season, he converted only 23% of his attempts from beyond the arc. That said, he’s an integral part of the Heat offense and contributes in every statistical category. His usage rate should be high in an elimination game.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Derrick White ($6,200) wasn’t much of a factor early in the series, as he scored 10 and eight DraftKings points and missed one game due to the birth of his child. Then Marcus Smart sprained his ankle, and White played 41 minutes, producing 39 DraftKings points. He’s continued the good play despite the return of Smart and has gone for 27.3 and 43.3 DraftKings points in 29 and 33 minutes. His usage rate has been in the 20% range and he’s dished out at least five assists in each of the last three games while racking up defensive stats.
P.J. Tucker ($5,600) is a low-usage player, so points will rarely be voluminous. That said, he does drain the corner three and drops floaters in the lane when closeouts are too aggressive. Where he makes his hay is in the hustle stats: rebounds and steals. Tucker will play around 30 minutes and has gone for 23.3 and 26.3 DraftKings points in the last two games. The floor is single-digit DraftKings points, but he does have 30-DKFP upside if things break right. He’s going to be on the floor a ton as long as injury or foul trouble doesn’t keep him off.
Robert Williams ($6,400) was dealing with a knee issue, but he’s played 26 and 27 minutes over the last two games. He only scored 16.8 DraftKings points in Game 6, but that’s because he only grabbed one rebound. In these playoffs, he’s pulled down at least five rebounds in six of 10 games. He’s a lob threat who has scored double-digit points in three of five games this series, and he’s blocked at least two shots in each of the last eight games. He has 30-DraftKings-points upside if things break right.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Caleb Martin ($1,800 on DraftKings): Martin won’t play 20 minutes, but he’s received at least 10 minutes in every game this series. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in four of six games. The allure of Martin is that he’s not shy of taking advantage of opportunities when he’s on the court. His usage rate has been at least 17% in the last five games with two over 20%.
- Duncan Robinson ($2,400 on DraftKings): This is an all-or-nothing play. Either Robinson is going to play single-digit minutes and put up zero DraftKings points, or he puts up over 20 DraftKings points. There is no in-between. He’s gone for over 20 DraftKings points in three games this series and combined for 3.3 in the other two with a bagel in Game 6. If the Heat are struggling on offense, especially Max Strus, Robinson could be inserted into the lineup and make it rain from downtown. The ownership should be low, but there’s a ton of upside if the low-probability outcome manifests.
