Sunday features Game 3 between the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks won both games in Minnesota and now have a chance to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. They are 2.5-point home favorites with the game total sitting at 207.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Luka Doncic was exceptional in Game 2 recording a 32-point, 13-assist, 10-rebound triple-double. The cherry on top was burying a game-winning 3-pointer over the Defensive Player of the Year. Doncic has now accumulated 60-plus DraftKings points in four consecutive games. He has by far the highest projected ceiling in our Player model and is a great selection for the captain spot with plenty of value on the board.
When not playing Doncic in the multiplier spot, make sure to utilize him in the flex position. Not only does he have the highest ceiling, but he also has the highest projected Plus/Minus in the flex spot. Doncic will be very popular, but deservingly so given how well he has played lately. Despite dealing with several lower body injuries, Doncic continues to play at an elite level. He is the best pay-up option on the slate.
Anthony Edwards has looked gassed in the first two games and unlike himself. Over his last five games, Edwards is shooting an abysmal 33.7% from the field and averaging 20.2 points and 42.9 DraftKings points per game. His salary may be $2,400 cheaper than Doncic, but it is hard to justify getting more exposure to Edwards given his recent play. However, his ceiling is still high if he can find his legs again.
The best thing about Edwards is that he will normally keep attacking. Even when his shot is not falling, he will continue to hunt for his shot because that is the best way for the Timberwolves to get back into this series. Edwards ranks second in projected ceiling, usage rate, and Plus/Minus on this showdown slate. His $11,200 salary is resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. Edwards is a fantastic tournament option for Game 3.
Kyrie Irving had a slow start to Game 2, but he scored 13 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter to lead the Mavericks to a come-from-behind victory. He made four 3-pointers in the final frame and added six assists and four rebounds for 37 total DraftKings points. After basically coasting through the Thunder series, Irving has been a key factor in the Mavericks’ success through the first two games in this series.
Irving has dominated this matchup and his usage rate has spiked with Doncic a little hobbled. He is one of three players who is projected to play over 40 minutes tonight. Irving is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Mavericks offense than Doncic. He is $4,000 less expensive and has shown a very consistent scoring upside against the Timberwolves. Irving is in play for the multiplier spot due to his price tag and ceiling.
Similar to Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns has been disappointing through the first two games. He is shooting 27.8% from the field and 3-for-14 from behind the arc. After dominating the Nuggets, that is uncharacteristic for Towns, who has a favorable matchup in this series. He also has only pulled down seven rebounds in the last two games compared to double-digit boards in four of his previous six games.
Despite the Mavericks ranking 26th in rebounding percentage during the regular season, they have out-rebounded the Timberwolves in each of the first two games. With their backs against the wall, expect Towns and Edwards to come to play in Game 3. That is what they have done all season. Given his double-double ceiling, Towns is simply too cheap. He is a fantastic contrarian pay-up option for tonight’s game.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Rudy Gobert was put on a Luka Doncic highlight reel, but he ended up having a really good Game 2. He had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds while adding two assists, two steals, and one block. Gobert needs to dominate the glass in this spot, but he has yet to put up his normally massive rebounding numbers. However, another double-double will put Gobert in the optimal lineup category for this game.
PJ Washington has yet to play as well as he did in the Thunder series, but has still scored double-digit points and grabbed six rebounds and two blocks per game in the first two contests. Washington’s salary continues to drop due to his recent play, but he is playing heavy minutes and is a big contributor on both ends of the floor. Washington has played well at home this postseason, so expect nothing less tonight.
After a poor shooting display in Game 1, Mike Conley bounced back in Game 2 with 18 points, five rebounds, and five assists. It was his fifth game in his last six scoring double-digit points and having a positive Plus/Minus. He will also contribute in the counting stats, making him a safe mid-range value option in all formats. Projected to start and play 32 minutes, it is safe to now ignore his questionable tag.
Jaden McDaniels scored 20-plus points in three consecutive games for the first time in his career, but he followed that up with a putrid two points on 1-for-6 shooting from the field. Despite playing 36 minutes, McDaniels had a 7.4% usage rate and played a very poor game. Both uncharacteristic stats, so it is safe to expect a bounceback game from the four-year pro. Given his ceiling, McDaniels is too cheap Sunday.
Naz Reid was the best player on the floor for the Timberwolves in Game 2. The Sixth Man of the Year scored a team-high 23 points while shooting 8-for-13 from the field, including seven made 3-pointers. Reid had a great look to win the game at the buzzer, but his 3-pointer caromed off the rim. Reid’s salary jumped $1,000 based on his fantastic Game 2 performance. The price jump is warranted due to his play.
Outside of Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards, Dereck Lively has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus for Game 3. The rookie from Duke has been incredible during his last four games, averaging a double-double with 11.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. Head Coach Jason Kidd can’t keep Lively off the floor. He is playing more minutes during that four-game stretch and is the best value on the slate Sunday.
Daniel Gafford‘s playing time has decreased recently due to Lively’s emergence, but he has still been productive when he is on the floor. Gafford was exceptional in Game 2 with 16 points, five rebounds, and five blocks. His salary has dropped like a ton of bricks, making him a strong value. The Mavericks have outscored the Timberwolves 118-80 in the paint in this series so far, and these two are a big reason why.
Derrick Jones Jr. has not been scoring well in this series compared to his last three games against the Thunder, but his defense is needed to slow down Anthony Edwards. With a secured playing time due to his elite defense, Jones Jr. does not have to do much to return value. Even with most of his focus coming from guarding Edwards, Jones Jr. has displayed perimeter jump shot upside and lob-catching abilities.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,000): Despite getting solid minutes off the bench, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been a disappointing value play recently. He has missed his last 11 3-point attempts and is averaging 0.48 DraftKings points per minute. Due to his recent play, Alexander-Walker’s playing time has been decreasing. Even being projected to play 16 minutes, he is a tough value option.
- Kyle Anderson ($2,800): Opposite of Alexander-Walker, Kyle Anderson has been a stellar value play in this series. In the first two games Anderson is stuffing the stat sheet with his scoring and providing counting stats. He is averaging 18.9 DraftKings points per game, which is more than enough to pay off his cheap $2,800 salary. Projected to play 18 minutes Sunday, Anderson is an incredible value.
- Josh Green ($2,600): Josh Green played 21 minutes in Game 2 and finished with one of his better games of the postseason. He had 18 DraftKings points from five points, six rebounds, two steals, and one assist. Green has been shooting fantastic from behind the arc. The Mavericks’ sharpshooter has made at least one 3-pointer in each of his last 10 playoff games. He is a strong value in all formats.
- Jaden Hardy ($2,200): Jaden Hardy recorded his third-straight game with double-digit DraftKings points. He posted a 34% usage rate and scored eight points in only 12 minutes of action. Yet again, Hardy has the fifth-highest projected usage rate in this game. It does not matter how many minutes Hardy gets, he will be productive. He is a steady value play that costs just over the minimum salary.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. ($2,000): This may not be the series for Tim Hardaway Jr. He had zero field-goal attempts in Game 1 and only one shot in Game 2, finishing with no DraftKings points. I debated not even including Hardaway Jr. in this section, but given he has upside if his shot is falling, it is hard not to include him as a flier. Hardaway Jr. is very risky and only makes sense in tournaments in this spot.
