Sunday features Game 3 of the Western Conference finals between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks. The Warriors protected home court and travel to Dallas up 2-0. The Mavericks have been great at home, though, winning their last five games and posting the best defensive rating. The Vegas dashboard has Dallas favored by 2.5 points with the total at 219.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Luka Doncic ($20,400 CPT/$13,600 UTIL) was held to 6-for-18 shooting for 20 points and 34.8 DraftKings points in Game 1. He had scored at least 50 DraftKings points in every game this playoffs, with three over 60 and a high of 75, so a bounceback game was to be expected. Well, the Mavericks made adjustments, eschewing pick-and-roll action for more isolation plays. Doncic proceeded to go for 42 points and 69.8 DraftKings points. His usage rate has been 38.6% and 35.9% so far this series. He is the most expensive player by a wide margin, but he has the ability to triple-double in any game and has the highest floor/ceiling combination on the slate.
I am fading Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. I realize that things can go horribly wrong, and I am frightened because both can go bonkers on any given night, but this is the life that I have chosen. Dallas played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season and have had the best defensive rating in these playoffs at home. They held Utah to 99, 104, and 77 points while limiting Phoenix to 94, 101, and 86 points at home. As a result, I’m going with Jalen Brunson ($12,600 CPT/$8,400 UTIL). He scored 26.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 but only shot 6-for-16 from the field. He had some great looks but just didn’t hit them. He bounced back in Game 2 with 31 points and 48.8 DraftKings points. He is the Robin to Luka’s Batman and has garnered a usage rate of 25.7% and 29.5%. Brunson is able to bully the smaller Warriors guards down in the post, and I’d expect plenty of that action in Game 3.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Andrew Wiggins ($8,000) has been one of the more consistent players for the Warriors. What a time to be alive. He has scored 34.8, 34.3, and 41.8 DraftKings points over the last three games. In these playoffs, he’s gone for at least 30 DraftKings points in eight of 13 games. His usage rate will never be sky-high since he plays alongside Curry and Thompson, but he’s attempted 14, 17, and 16 shots in the three most recent contests and has contributed a little in every statistical category. He’s racked up at least one steal and one block in each of the last three games.
Kevon Looney ($7,200) has gone for at least 40 DraftKings points in two of the last three games! I’m inclined to fade if the ownership gets too high, since those two games were likely outlier affairs. He shot 10-for-14 in one game and grabbed 22 rebounds in the other. For perspective, Looney has played 367 games in his career. He’s attempted at least 10 shots in only five of those and grabbed double-digit rebounds in 34 games. That said, he has played 32, 28, and 35 minutes over the last three games after languishing in the teens for much of the playoffs.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($6,600) is a low-usage player who has scored single-digits in six of 15 games this playoffs. He only averages 0.7 DraftKings points per minute. That said, he’s on the court a ton and has received at least 40 minutes in nine games this postseason. While he has scored fewer than 20 DraftKings points four times, he’s gone for over 40 twice. Playing alongside Doncic and Brunson means that he gets plenty of open looks.
As with Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock ($6,400) gets plenty of good looks from downtown because defenses focus on and collapse on Doncic. Bullock has converted 36% of his looks from beyond the arc this season, but that number has spiked to 40% in the playoffs. He played 44 minutes in Game 2 and put up 30.3 DraftKings points. In these playoffs, he’s exceeded 20 DraftKings points in 11 of 15 games with three above 30.
Otto Porter Jr. ($5,400) has played 23 and 24 minutes in the first two games of the series. He produced 21 and 29.8 DraftKings points. He’s a low-usage player who will rarely light up the scoreboard, but he contributes a little something in every statistical category. He averages 0.93 DraftKings points per minute.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Maxi Kleber ($4,800 on DraftKings): Kleber’s playing time was trending down to 20 minutes per contest, but he received 33 in Game 2. He only put up 12.3 DraftKings points on 1-for-5 shooting from downtown, but he blocked two shots and racked up one steal. His ability to stretch the court is huge for the Mavericks offense, and he should continue to get good looks. The playing time is a question mark, but if he gets over 30 minutes, he could smash his price. In these playoffs, he has games of 30.8 and 41 DraftKings points.
- Davis Bertans ($2,600 on DraftKings): Bertans likely won’t play over 20 minutes, and there’s a good chance he receives fewer than 10 minutes, something that has happened seven times in these playoffs. When he’s on the court, though, Bertans is out there to do one thing and one thing only: make it rain from downtown. He has six double-digit DraftKings points games this playoffs with a high of 21. If he gets hot, he is the likeliest player in this price range to score over 20 DraftKings points.
