The Eastern Conference Finals head to Indiana on Saturday night for Game 3, with the Celtics holding a commanding 2-0 lead on the Pacers. The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites in Game 3 while the game total is set at 222.5 after Game 1’s total hit 261 with the additional minutes and Game 2’s hit 236.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The big story line that will impact Saturday’s game is the availability of Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton is listed as questionable after having to leave Game 2 with a hamstring injury in the third quarter. He tried to play through the injury and was severely limited, so even if he does give it a go, there’s a good chance he’ll be at less than 100%.
Haliburton has been key to everything the Pacers have done this postseason, with a 21.8% usage rate and 31.5% assist rate. He averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute while playing 34.8 minutes per game. In Game 2, he only played 28 minutes and finished with 30 DraftKings points before leaving. He could still give it a go this Saturday, but even if he does, he probably won’t be worth paying up for as a Captain or even in a Utility spot since there is so much risk of re-injury. He missed 10 games earlier this season with a hamstring strain, so the Pacers will have to be extra cautious with their star.
If Hali is out or limited, it will open the door for many other Pacers to step up, including Pascal Siakam. Siakam has a 25.8% usage rate in the playoffs and has produced 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. He started the playoffs with two monster games and then went quiet for a stretch but has looked good again in this matchup, exceeding salary-based expectations in both Game 1 and Game 2. He had 52 DraftKings points on 24 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists in Game 1 and had 28 points in 31 minutes in Game 2 before the Pacers starters all played very limited time down the stretch. If Haliburton is at less than 100%, Siakam will have to step up and could end up being a great play in Game 3.
On the other side of the matchup, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown lead the way for the Celtics, who are looking very strong after wins in Game 1 and Game 2. Tatum again has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections in this contest, with Brown just behind him in each category. As he did in Game 2, he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a utility spot with Brown second behind him.
Tatum had “just” 23 points and 36.5 DraftKings points in a disappointing Game 2 for him statistically while Brown went off for a playoff career-high 40 points and finished with 52.25 DraftKings points. Brown has had a higher usage throughout the Celtics playoff run while Tatum has been slightly more productive since he has been doing so much work on the boards. Tatum is averaging 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs while Brown is averaging 1.09 DraftKings points per minute.
Tatum should be in a good spot to bounce back and has typically carried more of the work when the team is on the road. He had monster double-doubles in Game 3 and Game 4 against the Cavs in the last round to earn over 60 DraftKings points in each contest and had reeled off four straight games with over 60 DraftKings points before cooling off on Thursday. With Hali’s uncertainty opening up value at other spots, spending up for Tatum is a strong option at Captain if you think he’ll bounce back to his previous postseason form.
Brown has been sensational in this series and can also be a strong Captain play. His ceiling isn’t as high as Tatum’s, but he has taken 20+ shots in each of the first two games in this series. Brown’s Projected Plus/Minus is close to Tatum’s and second on the slate, so if your lineup comes together better with him as Captain and Tatum in a Utility spot, that’s a construction that can definitely work well as we saw in Game 2.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The Celtics’ supporting cast has been outstanding in the series so far, and the Pacers’ supporting cast will need to deliver if Haliburton is at less than 100%.
The big name to watch is T.J. McConnell, who has been excellent when given playing time. He stepped up in a big way when Haliburton was out in the regular season. In the 11 games McConnell played with Haliburton out, he averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 28.6 DraftKings points per game. In the playoffs, he has produced 1.17 DraftKings points per minute overall and 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with Haliburton off the floor.
McConnell only played 17 minutes in Game 2 and finished with 19.25 DraftKings points after exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his previous three games. He could be in for a much bigger role if Haliburton is out or limited, and his very affordable salary of $5,800 makes him a good play as a utility option even if Haliburton tries to gut it out. The uncertainty in the backcourt raises his ceiling, making him one of the key players to consider this Saturday.
Another key piece in the Pacers’ backcourt is second-year starter Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard has exceeded salary-based expectations by producing over 26 DraftKings points in four straight games. His salary jumped to $6,000 in this matchup partly due to his strong numbers and partly due to Haliburton’s uncertainty. Nembhard won’t be quite as good a play as McConnell if Haliburton is out, but he’ll definitely be worth a look in a Utility spot.
In the frontcourt, Myles Turner remains the most expensive Pacers starter after their two studs. He went off with 46.5 DraftKings points on 23 points and 10 rebounds in Game 1 but then vanished with just eight points and four rebounds for 14 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has produced 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs and that number jumps to 1.19 DraftKings points per minute while Haliburton is off the floor. He’s another Pacer whose value increases if he has to pick up more work.
No player on the Pacers has gotten a bigger usage bump with Haliburton off the floor this postseason than former Celtic Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith sees a usage increase of over five percentage points without Haliburton and has produced 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in his time without Hali on the floor. He’s a strong value consideration either way and brings a high ceiling at an affordable salary.
For the Celtics, Jrue Holiday continues to carry a heavy postseason workload and produce great numbers. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, scoring over 12 points in each of those contests. He followed up his playoff-high 28 points in Game 1 with a double-double of 15 points and 10 assists in Game 2. He finished with 54.75 DraftKings points and 36.25 DraftKings points in those two games and is averaging 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason with a big workload of 37.8 minutes per game.
Holiday’s backcourt mate Derrick White has also started the series strong, producing 42.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 43 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has contributed across the box score throughout the playoffs and is averaging 1.0 DraftKings points per minute. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at a utility spot in this matchup behind only Brown and Tatum
White has been very consistent with double-digit points in 11 of his 12 playoff games and also flashed a high ceiling with 38 points and 57 DraftKings points in Game 4 on the road against Miami. White has been more consistent than any other member of Boston’s supporting cast this postseason and will be a great option at just over $8,000 on Saturday in Game 3.
With Kristaps Porzingis not quite ready to return, Al Horford is likely to get another start on Saturday. He had 15 points, six rebounds, and 31.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 but only played 25 minutes in Game 2, finishing with 22 DraftKings points on six points and 10 rebounds. Horford’s a fine option, but he’s more expensive than Nembhard, McConnell, and Nesmith, who all have very high ceilings with Haliburton’s situation. If you think Hali plays and all those Pacers values bust, then Horford makes a solid alternative.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Payton Pritchard ($4,000): Pritchard had 12 points in Game 2 and exceeded salary-based expectations with 18 DraftKings points. He has a nice ceiling and can produce good DraftKings points whenever the game gets lopsided and the Cetlics’ subs get extra run. He plays a key role in Boston’s second unit, but his minutes and usage vary from game to game based on the situation.
- Sam Hauser ($2,200): Hauser played 22 minutes in Game 2 and had 18.75 DraftKings points to match his second-highest production of the postseason. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries under $4,000, and you can actually build a stacked Utility squad if you use Hauser as your bargain Captain and you want to go really wild.
- Oshae Brissett ($2,000): With Luke Kornet (wrist) doubtful, Brissett will likely get additional playing time against his former team in Game 3. He played 12 minutes in Game 2 and posted three rebounds, three steals, and two points for 11.75 DraftKings points. If he gets the extra playing time, Brissett could end up as a bargain at only $2,000.
- Obi Toppin ($4,200): Toppin is priced up a little after a strong start to the series. He had 15 points and 24 DraftKings points in Game 1 followed by 11 points and 16.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 13 of the Pacers’ last 14, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 19.2 minutes per game. If the Pacers’ second unit gets more work, Toppin could be a top play.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,600): Sheppard continues to get plenty of minutes off the Pacers bench, and his role could expand further depending on Haliburton’s availability and McConnell’s role. Sheppard has played over 17 minutes in six straight contests but fell short of salary-based expectations in both Game 1 and Game 2 despite plenty of time on the floor.
