Saturday features Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat. The Celtics were able to even the series at one game apiece with their win in Game 2, and the series will now shift to Boston. The Celtics are listed as six-point home favorites in Game 3, and they are approximately -265 to win the series.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Celtics bounced back from a disappointing Game 1 with a huge win in Game 2. Jayson Tatum was a big part of their success, providing his usual combination of scoring volume and efficiency. He ultimately finished with 27 points on 8-of-13 shooting, and he did it in just 31.5 minutes. He also added five rebounds, five assists, and one steal, bringing his fantasy total to 43.25 DraftKings points for the evening.
Tatum likely won’t have the same level of efficiency on this slate, but he should make up for it with additional playing time. He’s played more than 41.6 minutes in four of his past six games, so he could realistically see 10 more minutes than he did in Game 2. Tatum has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is more than every other player on Saturday’s slate.
Tatum has seen a slight price increase on DraftKings, but that’s not a huge issue. He was incorrectly priced in Game 2, so this is more of a correction than an overreaction. He deserves to be the most expensive player in this contest, and that’s now the case. Tatum still leads all players in our NBA Models in median and ceiling projection, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus.
While Tatum has been the best player between these two teams this season, Jimmy Butler has actually been more productive during the postseason. He’s increased his fantasy output to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is far better than Tatum’s mark of 1.23.
Butler isn’t the same caliber of scorer as Tatum, but he makes up for it with superior production in the peripheral categories. He’s averaged 7.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 3.0 blocks + steals per game during the postseason. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in six straight games.
Separating Butler and Tatum on this slate is difficult, and I will probably have both of them in most of my lineups. However, our Models do give Tatum a slight edge. Not only has he been the better fantasy option for most of the year, but the Celtics own a moderate edge in implied team total. That’s not the worst tiebreaker.
Jaylen Brown rounds out the stud tier, but he lacks the same ceiling as Tatum and Butler. He’s cracked 50 fantasy points just twice during the postseason, while Tatum and Butler have done it a combined 15 times. Brown’s fantasy production has also dipped to just 1.08 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, which puts him well behind both players.
Still, Brown’s cheaper price tag helps offset that difference. He’s only projected for a few less points than Butler, giving him a better projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Bam Adebayo has been dreadful for the Heat recently. He’s scored 25.5 DraftKings points or fewer in five of his past six games, including just 19.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 vs. the Celtics. His usage rate has also been way down over that stretch. He’s posted an average usage rate of just 14.9%, which represents a massive decrease from his regular season mark of 25.0%.
It makes sense that he saw a slightly lower usage rate against the 76ers – Joel Embiid is one of the toughest matchups in the league – but there’s no reason that should continue vs. the Celtics. Adebayo was effective against the Celtics during the regular season, averaging 14.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in three contests. He also did that in just 31.6 minutes per game.
Ultimately, I’m not expecting Adebayo’s struggles to continue much longer. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season, making him an elite buy-low option at just $8,000.
Al Horford returned to the lineup in Game 2 following a one-game stint in health and safety protocols. That said, he finished with just 21.75 DraftKings points over 32.6 minutes.
He will likely see a few additional minutes on Saturday, but I’m not sure it will make a huge difference in his fantasy output. Horford had a few massive games vs. the Bucks, but he looked gassed towards the end of the series. He’s now posted a usage rate of 10% or lower in three straight games, so the nearly 36-year-old may be running on fumes. With Robert Williams back in the fold and Grant Williams playing well off the bench, Horford simply doesn’t need to do as much as he did last series.
Marcus Smart is arguably the best option in this price range, particularly on DraftKings. His $7,600 price tag is far too cheap, and it results in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Like Horford, Smart has had some massive games for the Celtics of late, including a near-triple-double in his last outing. He ultimately finished with 64.75 DraftKings points in 40.3 minutes, yet his price tag barely budged. Overall, Smart is projected for 38 minutes in Game 3, and he’s increased his production to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Expect him to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Robert Williams has started each of the past two games, but he still doesn’t seem quite like himself. He’s still dealing with an injury to his left knee, and the Celtics have been careful with his minutes. He played 28.4 minutes in Game 1, but that number dropped to 19.9 in Game 2.
Part of that was due to the game turning into a blowout, but Williams isn’t a part of the Celtics’ preferred lineup at the moment. Tatum, Brown, Smart, Horford, and Grant Williams appears to be their closing five, which is going to cap Williams’ minutes in most contests. He’s currently projected for just 21 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a risky option in Game 3.
Max Strus also seems a bit overpriced. He’s been a staple of the Heat’s starting lineup during the playoffs, but he’s not much of a factor in their offense. He’s out there to provide 3-point shooting, which gives him more real-life value than fantasy value. He has a chance to return value if his shot is falling, but he has a low floor if he isn’t. The fact that the Heat could be back at full strength on Saturday also hurts his value.
Tyler Herro is a strong option for the Heat in this price range. He may not see as many minutes as Strus, but he’s far more involved when he’s on the floor. His usage rate was down a tick in his last game, but he posted a mark of at least 33.2% in his two previous contests. He’s capable of averaging greater than a fantasy point per minute, so he doesn’t need to see 30 minutes to pay off his current salary.
Kyle Lowry is the x-factor for the Heat on Saturday. He’s been upgraded to questionable after missing eight of the Heat’s past 10 games. He’ll likely rejoin the starting lineup if he’s able to suit up, and he’s far cheaper than usual at just $6,200 on DraftKings. Still, his minutes could be monitored in his first game back, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. He’s a bit too risky for my liking.
Derrick White is expected to rejoin the Celtics after missing their last game for personal reasons. However, it’s unclear how involved he’ll be with the team at full strength. He saw a nice spike in playing time with Robert Williams out of the lineup, and he played 29.0 minutes with Horford and Smart inactive in Game 1. However, he’s averaged just 0.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for just 24 minutes in Game 3. He’s a bit more reasonable on FanDuel at $8,500, but he’s virtually unplayable on DraftKings.
Grant Williams is an interesting option. He’s a bench player, but he’s essentially seeing starter minutes off the bench. That gives him some appeal at $5,600 on DraftKings.
That said, Williams is far from a lock to return value. He finished with 27.0 DraftKings points in Game 2, but he shot 5-7 from the field and 2-2 from 3-point range. That’s not sustainable for Williams. Overall, he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past six games. I expect him to be somewhat popular on this slate, making him an easy fade.
Victor Oladipo is also priced in this range, but he’s not playing enough to warrant consideration. He’s currently projected for just 17 minutes, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games. You can cross him off pretty safely.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Payton Pritchard ($5,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): The values and punts section is really weak on Saturday. Pritchard has now posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, but he benefitted from the absence of White in Game 2. He also took advantage of some garbage time minutes, so he should see a sharp reduction in playing time on Saturday. He’s too expensive at the moment.
- P.J. Tucker ($4,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Tucker is a much stronger option than Pritchard. He’s not nearly as good on a per-minute basis, but his playing time is far more secure. He should see around 30 minutes on this slate, which gives him a solid shot at returning value.
- Gabe Vincent ($4,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Vincent has operated as the Heat’s starting point guard sans Lowry, which is a role he has thrived in all year. Unfortunately, when Lowry has been active, Vincent has largely been an afterthought. He’s worth consideration if Lowry is out once again, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he fell out of the rotation entirely.
- Duncan Robinson ($2,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Robinson is currently one of the highest-paid cheerleaders in the league. The Heat gave him a five-year, $90M contract in the offseason, but he’s barely been used during the postseason. The team has given him a bit more run of late, but that has come largely during blowouts. However, he did play well in garbage time in Game 2, finishing with 20.75 DraftKings points in 14.3 minutes, which could be enough to earn some minutes moving forward. I don’t hate him as a cheap tournament dart throw at basically no ownership, but the most likely scenario is a DNP.
- Dewayne Dedmon ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Dedmon is likely your best bet if you’re looking for a punt play. He’s entrenched as the team’s backup center, which results in about 10 minutes per game. Dedmon can average around 1.00 DraftKings points per minute, so 10 minutes is enough for him to be relevant in the single-game format.
- Caleb Martin ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Martin is priced at the absolute minimum, so he doesn’t need to do much to provide value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, which gives him just a hint of viability.
