NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Saturday, May 20): Fade Jamal Murray on the Road?

Saturday features Game 3 of the Western Conference finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Lakers are listed as 5.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 222.5.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

The Nuggets have won the first two games in this series, but things will now shift to Los Angeles for Game 3. While the Nuggets are known for their homecourt advantage, the Lakers have also yet to lose at home during the postseason. Teams that lose the first two games of the Conference Finals have also gone 11-5 against the spread when returning home in Game 3, so this seems like a great spot for the Lakers to bounce back with a win.

That said, they’re still going to have to contend with Nikola Jokic. Whether you’re playing the Nuggets at home, on the road, or on the moon, stopping Jokic is nearly impossible. He’s been an absolute monster during the postseason, averaging 30.4 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. He’s also shooting nearly 55% from the field and 47.8% from 3-point range, so it’s one of the most dominant stretches of basketball in recent NBA history.

Jokic was already one of the best players in fantasy, but he’s elevated his production to 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s scored at least 70.25 DraftKings points in nine of his past 10 games, including each of his past seven. The DFS sites simply can’t set his salary high enough at the moment.

The Lakers have been an excellent defensive team over the second half of the year, but they’ve simply had no answer for Jokic in this matchup. He stands out in our NBA Models once again in Game 3, leading all players in ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus. He’s been in the optimal lineup in each of the first two games of this series, and it’s hard to imagine that won’t be the case again on Saturday. He’ll have astronomical ownership, but it’s nearly impossible to fade him at the moment.

The bigger question is which of the two Lakers’ superstars to pair him with? Anthony Davis was the preferred choice in Game 1, racking up 69.0 DraftKings points and showing up as the Captain in the optimal lineup, while LeBron James was surpassed Davis in the optimal lineup in Game 2.

LeBron is slightly more expensive on DraftKings, but he continues to struggle as a scorer. He’s shooting just 23.3% from 3-point range during the postseason, and he’s 0-10 from downtown in his first two games vs. the Nuggets. That said, he’s made up for it with his work in the peripheral categories. He’s handed out at least nine assists in three straight games, and he’s had at least nine rebounds in five straight. That makes him very live for a triple-double, and if he can rediscover his shooting form, he has an excellent ceiling.

Still, Davis gets the edge in our projections, and he’s displayed the higher ceiling of the two during the postseason. LeBron has just three games with more than 60 DraftKings points during the playoffs and none with more than 63. Davis has eclipsed 60 DraftKings points five times, and he has four games with at least 63.25. Overall, Davis has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, while LeBron is slightly behind at 1.32.

The gap between the two in our projections is pretty wide, with Davis’ ceiling projection exceeding LeBron’s by more than 6.5 points. Considering the difference in salary, that gives Davis a big edge in projected Plus/Minus.

Jamal Murray has developed a reputation as a big-game performer, and he’s put that on full display in this series. He started with 31 points and 54.25 DraftKings points in Game 1, and he willed the Nuggets to a victory in Game 2. He scored 23 points in the fourth quarter, bringing him to 37 points and 68.0 DraftKings points for the evening. Murray added his first double-double of the postseason, so it was easily his highest-scoring fantasy output.

That said, there is a bit of concern about Murray at his current price tag. He’s up to $9,800, and while that might be too cheap for his recent production, his past two games have come at home. Murray hasn’t been nearly as good on the road this season, averaging nearly four fewer fantasy points per game (per the Trends tool).

Overall, Murray owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in the stud tier, and there’s a chance he’s second only to Jokic in ownership.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Austin Reaves is going to get a bag in free agency this summer. He’s been a massive part of the Lakers’ success during the second half of the year, and he’s played particularly well during the postseason. He’s scored at least 32.0 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s had at least 36.75 in three straight.

Reaves played only 36 minutes in Game 2 vs. the Nuggets, and there’s a chance he plays 40+ minutes on Saturday. He’s been far more impactful than D’Angelo Russell of late, so don’t be surprised if Russell starts to lose some minutes to “Hillbilly Kobe.”

Michael Porter Jr. has been the clear No. 3 option for the Nuggets during the playoffs, with his usage rate dipping from 22.7% during the regular season to just 16.7%. That’s obviously not great for Porter’s fantasy value, but he remains one of the most lethal perimeter shooters in basketball. He knocked down seven total 3-pointers during the first two games of this series, and he’s shooting 42.2% from downtown during the playoffs.

Porter has also supplemented his scoring numbers with increased work on the glass. Porter’s rebound rate was just 10.9% during the regular season, but he’s up to 13.7% in the playoffs. He has at least seven boards in five of his past six games, and he has double-digit boards in three of them. His increased double-double upside means he still has plenty of viability for fantasy purposes.

Sadly, the same cannot be said for Aaron Gordon. Gordon has focused way more on the defensive end during the playoffs, particularly in this series. He posted a usage rate of just 17.3% during Game 1, and that figure dipped to 13.2% in Game 2. Porter’s increased production on the glass has also come at the direct expense of Gordon, whose rebound rate has dipped from 12.5% to 9.4%.

Gordon is simply too expensive at $7,000 on DraftKings, but he does have some buy-low appeal on FanDuel. His price tag is down to $8,500, and his 97% Bargain Rating is the top mark on the slate.

Gordon also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

I’m not touching Russell with a 10-foot pole on Saturday. He managed to provide a smidge of value in Game 2, scoring 27.25 DraftKings points in just under 33 minutes, but his minute projection has fallen to just 27.7 in our NBA Models for Game 3. His per-minute production is also down during the playoffs, dipping to just 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Ultimately, he provides minimal upside at his current salary, but his floor is cavernous.

Bruce Brown also has a wide range of outcomes on this slate. His salary is up to $6,600 on DraftKings, but he played approximately 37.3 minutes in Game 2. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, he definitely has the potential to pay off his elevated price tag.

However, expecting that much playing time is probably a mistake. He played just 24.2 minutes in Game 1, and he’s averaged just 26.6 minutes per game during the playoffs. He’s currently projected for just 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s going to struggle to return value with less than 30 minutes.

Brown’s bump in playing time came at the expense of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in Game 2, who played just 25.7 minutes. However, KCP had played at least 35.6 minutes in his previous two contests, and he responded with at least 35.0 DraftKings points in both. KCP is far from a per-minute superstar, but expect his playing time to return to normal on this slate. His price tag has also come down a bit, so he’s a solid bounce-back target.

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Dennis Schroder ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Schroder has evolved into the Lakers’ defensive stopper at point guard, which means his role in the rotation is pretty safe. The team is going to use him a lot on Murray, and he’s played at least 29.9 minutes in back-to-back games. Unfortunately, Schroder’s defensive focus has nuked his offensive production during the playoffs, and he’s averaged just 0.62 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Still, getting on the floor is half the battle in the single-game format, and Schroder will see enough playing time to warrant consideration.
• Rui Hachimura ($4,600 DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Hachimura will easily be the most popular value play on this slate. He was fantastic in Game 2, showing up as the optimal Captain on DraftKings thanks to his 27.0 DraftKings points. He played more than 30 minutes off the bench, and while I wouldn’t expect another 8-10 shooting night, he should be locked into another sizable workload.
• Lonnie Walker IV ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Walker was the hero for the Lakers in their series vs. the Warriors, but he has not had nearly the same impact vs. Denver. He played less than 13 minutes in Game 2 and finished with just 4.75 DraftKings points. His median and ceiling projections are still good enough for his price tag, but don’t be surprised if his playing time continues to wane.
• Jeff Green ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Green is priced very similarly to Walker, but he offers all the downside without any of the upside. He hasn’t cracked double-digit fantasy points in his past five games, and he’s scored 6.75 DraftKings points or fewer in four of them.
• Jarred Vanderbilt ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Vanderbilt returned to the Lakers’ starting lineup in Game 2 after coming off the bench in his previous two outings. It didn’t have a huge impact on his production – he tallied just four points and two rebounds – but it gives him much more upside than a reserve role. He tallied 16.8 minutes in Game 2 after playing just 4.0 and 10.2 minutes in his previous two contests.
• Christian Braun ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): This play is less about Braun and more about roster construction. Using Braun – or even someone cheaper – is essentially a bet on the top superstars in the game going off. Remember, the optimal lineup in Game 1 featured a min-priced player who scored zero fantasy points because it allowed you to fit Davis in the Captain spot plus Jokic and Murray at utility. Braun is currently projected for double-digit minutes, so he’s a viable punt play at $2,000.