On Saturday night, the NBA has just one showcase matchup to focus on, as the Mavericks host the Thunder in Game 6 of their Western Conference Semifinal. The Mavs have a chance to eliminate the No. 1 seeded Thunder and advance with a win, and they are 3.5-point favorites after stealing a Game 5 win in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The game total is 209.5, and there should be plenty of fantasy matchups to attack in another wildly entertaining matchup.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Both teams rely heavily on their backcourts for their fantasy production, with Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both running their respective offenses and putting on a show in this series. Luka has been battling a knee injury, but he had his best game of the series in Game 5, finishing with 31 points and a triple-double for a total of 67.5 DKFP.
Even though he’s the most expensive player on the slate, he is worth considering as an option since he has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his 11 playoff games. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of any player on the slate and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the utility spot.
Doncic has produced an impressive 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason with a 32.4% usage rate. The extra days off since their game on Wednesday should only help him be healthier and ready to carry the load, as he tries to move his Mavs on to the next round and avoid a Game 7.
SGA will be looking to force a Game 7 back at his place, and like Luka, he has been excellent in this series and in the postseason. His ceiling, median, and floor projections are all just a touch behind Luka’s but because his salary is lower, he actually has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate in the utility spot.
In the playoffs, SGA has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last eight contests. He scored at least 29 points in every game in this series and had two double-doubles in Game 2 and Game 3 that resulted in over 64 DraftKings points, showing his upside. Like Luka, SGA also leads his team in usage rate with a 32.6% mark in the postseason, taking 20 field goal attempts or more in every game since Game 1.
Both SGA and Luka are elite plays to build around; it really just depends on if you think the difference in salary ($800 in utility, $1,200 in Captain) is worth paying up for Luka’s slightly higher ceiling. Since the game is at home and he’s rested, I’d personally give Luka the slight edge, but the rest of your salary cap is much easier to work with if you choose SGA. Playing one as Captain and one as Utility is possible, but it will leave you extremely low on salary and scrounging for punt plays and bargains. Another way to attack the slate is to use both superstar point guards as utility plays and find a Captain from the next level down.
Normally, I highlight more than two studs, but there’s such a drop off to the next tier that it feels like only SGA and Luka belong at this level on Saturday.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Kyrie Irving has the third-highest ceiling projection in this matchup but hasn’t been nearly as consistent or productive as the two studs discussed above. He is a little overpriced compared to Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren according to our projections, and Kyrie has fallen short of his salary-based expectations in four of his last five games. He does have a very high ceiling and has proven to be a clutch performer in the playoffs, but he is a high-risk play due to his elevated salary and recent numbers.
P.J. Washington stepped up as the Mavs’ secondary scorer in this series, dropping over 20 points in three games and exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight contests. He has double-doubles in three of those four games and has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in those contests, bringing his average up to 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs. His salary has risen to the point where he isn’t a bargain play anymore, but he still brings enough of a ceiling to be a good play at this price point.
In the last two games, Derrick Jones Jr. has also picked up some scoring, contributing 17 and 19 points for 30.25 DraftKings points and 27.25 DraftKings points. He’s a good boom-or-bust play at just over $5,000 since he always gets minutes, although his production can be volatile.
A more stable option at around the same salary for the Mavs in this series has been Dereck Lively II, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last three games and is coming off an 11-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 5. He played 23 minutes in that game off the bench behind Daniel Gafford, who had nine points and seven rebounds. Both centers can be productive and bring good upside, but Lively is a much easier fit under the salary cap.
Lively and Gafford have been rotating against Holmgren, who has the third-highest median and floor projections in the matchup and the fourth-highest ceiling projection. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at utility and is the best play aside from SGA and Luka since he is cheaper than Kyrie and Jalen Williams but has been more consistent.
In the playoffs, Holmgren has averaged 1.0 DraftKings points per minute. He struggled to just 13 points and four rebounds for 21.5 DraftKings points in Game 5, but he had over 37 DraftKings points in three of his previous four games in the series. Getting Holmgren involved early will be a priority and a necessity for the Thunder if they want to force a Game 7.
The other key for the Thunder to get involved early on Saturday night is Jalen Williams. Williams has produced 1.01 DraftKings points per minute, but he has been held under 15 points in each of the last two games. SGA’s production has been consistent, but Williams and Holmgren have not supported him quite as well in the games the Thunder have lost, so getting them involved early and often will have to be a priority on Saturday.
One of the other important things to watch is who starts alongside the Thunder’s big three. Luguentz Dort will continue to get plenty of minutes at $6,000, although he has low usage. The other spot is very interesting, though, since the Thunder could go in multiple directions. Josh Giddey started the first four games of the series but struggled and was moved to the bench in Game 5, playing just 12 minutes.
Isaiah Joe started in his spot and played 22 minutes. He knocked down two three-pointers but only managed 10.75 DraftKings points. Still, if Joe gets the start again, he has a good enough upside to be the best Thunder play from under $6,000. Joe has averaged 0.69 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs while playing 15.9 minutes per game. Joe has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries under $8,000 on Saturday since he comes at such a discount.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Cason Wallace ($2,800): While Joe got the start in Game 5, it was Wallace who got a massive jump in playing time, logging a series-high 27 minutes off the bench. He did very little with all that extra time, going 1-for-7 from the field and scoring just three points and 3.5 DraftKings points. Still, if Wallace is going to get that many minutes, he’ll be worth a look at under $3,000. Earlier in the series, he showed more upside, with two games of over 15 DraftKings points.
- Aaron Wiggins ($4,200): Wiggins is more expensive than Wallace or even Joe, but he did show a high ceiling with 16 points and 29.75 DraftKings points in Game 1. He has played limited minutes and hasn’t been as productive since then, but he could be the infusion of energy the Thunder are looking for if he can get back to hitting his outside shot like he did in Game 1.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. ($3,000): Hardaway had 17 points and 22 DraftKings points in Game 2 of this series but has settled into a smaller role with Jones and Washington stepping up to handle more of the scoring. He still has boom-or-bust upside off the bench, but he’s a high-risk play even at only $3,000.
- Josh Green ($2,400): Green’s role has also been a little diminished with Jones and Washington stepping up. He has at least 14 DraftKings points in three of the five games in this series with a high point of 21.5 DraftKings points back in Game 1. He has been more consistently involved than THJ and is a little cheaper, so going with him and Wallace can be a good way to save the salary you need to spend on starters in other spots.
