On Saturday night, there is only one game on the NBA schedule. The Championship game for the new In-Season Tournament takes place in Las Vegas at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Lakers are four-point favorites as they take on the upstart Pacers. The game total is 240.5, so there should be plenty of points available in what should be an up-tempo contest. Hopefully, we get a close, competitive game before the winner lifts the first-ever NBA Cup.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
There are three superstars in the Championship game, and all of them have strong cases to be the centerpiece of your lineup. The most expensive of the three is Tyrese Haliburton, who has carried the fired-up, fast-playing Pacers all the way to the Championship game. Haliburton is the most expensive play on the board, but he has been so outstanding that he’s still worth considering.
Haliburton has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in five of his last seven games. In those seven games, he has averaged 63.25 DraftKings points and 59.2 FanDuel points per game at the rate of 1.72 DraftKings points and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute. Haliburton has scored over 25 points in all seven of those games while also averaging 12.7 assists.
On the season, Haliburton leads the team with a 27.0% usage rate, and in the last seven games, that has climbed to 28.3%. Haliburton has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all players on DraftKings. He’s projected to play 39.9 minutes with a 26.9% usage rate, so he should be set up for another big game.
On the other side of the matchup, LeBron James has turned back the clock and brought us vintage playoff LeBron for the duration of the In-Season Tournament. Not only has he set the tone that this tournament really matters, but he has also put together strong statistical performances.
On Tuesday, LeBron piled up 31 points, 11 assists, eight rebounds, and five steals against the Suns while playing over 40 minutes for just the second time this season. In the semifinal on Thursday, LeBron only had to play 23 minutes in a blowout win over the Pelicans, but he still managed 30 points, eight assists and five rebounds. It was the quickest 30-point game in Lakers’ history and should mean that The King is well-rested and ready to carry the load on Saturday night.
He’s projected for 38.7 minutes with a 29.0% usage rate and has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on DraftKings in this contest. In the two games this week, LeBron has averaged an impressive 1.9 DraftKings points and 1.88 FanDuel points per minute.
James and the Lakers appear to be on a mission, and The King can add another chapter to his legacy by bringing home the trophy with a win Saturday. The playoffs are much more of a grind, but this single-elimination format is built for his version of “Playoff LeBron,” and he should be set to thrive with a signature performance. If you are playing just one superstar, LeBron would be my top choice since he brings both a very high ceiling and a very solid floor.
On DraftKings, Anthony Davis is the cheapest of the three studs on the slate, but he has the second-highest projections just behind Haliburton. AD has the highest Pts/Sal and the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the game on DraftKings. Davis also has the highest Pts/Sal of all players on FanDuel.
On the season, Davis has produced 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.48 FanDuel points per minute, and he has been right on those averages with 1.48 DraftKings points and 1.49 FanDuel points per minute in the two elimination games this week.
Davis has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in five straight games and has posted 11 straight double-doubles dating back to Nov. 17. He has added at least 14 rebounds in five straight games and has averaged 25.8 points and 14.8 rebounds during that span. The only game in that stretch in which AD finished with fewer than 27 points was in his most recent game when he played just 31 minutes in that blowout win.
Any of the three superstars makes sense as a Captain’s Pick play, but of the three, Haliburton has the highest ceiling. James has the narrative behind him and is the most proven option, and Davis leaves the most salary to spend in other spots. If you put one of them in your Captian’s Pick spot on DraftKings, there isn’t enough salary to include any other stars unless you go ultra-cheap at your other utility spots.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
While Haliburton has clearly been the leader for the Pacers, Myles Turner has also been a key contributor to their success. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight double-doubles and finished with 52 DraftKings points and 53 FanDuel points in his most recent game against the Bucks. He had three blocks in that game to go with 26 points and 10 boards. Over his last 10 games, Turner has an Average Plus/Minus of 3.9 FanDuel points and has produced 16.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game.
Turner has the fourth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections along with the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He had double-doubles in each of his two matchups with the Lakers last season. Turner offers a lower-cost option than the three studs and allows greater roster flexibility in your other spots.
The rest of the Pacers’ supporting cast has been boom or bust this season. However, during the tournament this week, the rotation has been tightened up and focused more on Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin. Mathurin has a better Projected Plus/Minus since he’s cheaper, but Hield has been more productive. He had 21 points on Monday against the Celtics and followed that with eight points and 11 rebounds against the Bucks on Thursday. Hield has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games on FanDuel, and the Pacers will need him to step up again if they want to claim the Cup.
Bruce Brown has been starting in the backcourt next to Haliburton and has been playing big minutes all season. He fell short of salary-based expectations on Thursday in the Semifinal, but he had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his previous six games on FanDuel. Except for in a 30-point game while Haliburton was out last Saturday against the Heat, Brown normally has a low usage rate. He’s a solid mid-range play with a good ceiling though, and is projected to play 32.1 minutes.
After being traded to the Pacers this off-season, Obi Toppin has produced 0.88 DraftKings points and 0.89 FanDuel points per minute. He has scored double-digit points in seven of his last eight games and exceeded salary-based expectations in six of those games on DraftKings and seven on FanDuel.
On the Lakers’ side of things, the supporting cast of mid-range picks includes Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell and Taurean Prince. Reaves had 17 points and seven assists against the Pelicans to exceed salary-based expectations on DraftKings for the first time in six games. He also showed he could be clutch in last year’s playoffs and again in the Quarterfinals against the Suns when he hit a key three-pointer. Reaves comes off the bench but still plays most of the meaningful minutes for Los Angeles.
Russell has a high ceiling since he plays so many minutes with the starters and typically gets plenty of shots, but he hasn’t really gone off in a few weeks. He had single-digit points in two straight games before getting 14 points on Thursday. Before that game, he had really been struggling with his shot, and his usage has dipped while LeBron and AD have picked up more of the workload. At his price, Russell isn’t quite as attractive as Reaves, and Hield is actually a little cheaper and brings a higher ceiling.
Prince was the biggest surprise on Thursday with 15 points on five three-pointers. He hadn’t had more than 14 points since October 29, but suddenly he couldn’t miss from outside. Prince typically plays good minutes and has non-scoring contributions, but his flurry of scoring helped the game turn into a blowout. He’s not likely to duplicate that performance, but the Lakers continue to give him plenty of minutes and usage, so he can work as a cheap option.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- T.J. McConnell ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): With Andrew Nembhard (knee) ruled out, McConnell and Mathurin should get extra work in the second unit. McConnell has shown he can produce in multiple categories when he gets a chance. Last Saturday with Haliburton sidelined, he had 20 points and 11 assists, and on Thursday he had nine points, four assists and three steals in just 11 minutes for 20.75 DraftKings points. With Nembhard out, he’s the best punt play with upside.
- Isaiah Jackson ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Jackson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on FanDuel and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players priced under $9,000 on FanDuel. Jackson had 11 points and six rebounds in a strong showing against the Bucks, but he has been boom-or-bust over the last few games even though the minutes have been there for him since the injury to Jalen Smith (heel). If you have to go cheap, he and McConnell would be the first two options that I would consider.
- Rui Hachimura ($3,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Hachimura has played over 20 minutes in six straight games and has taken at least eight shots in each of his last five games. He regularly finds a way to score some points and make an impact, so he’s the best cheap Lakers’ play in this contest.
- Jarred Vanderbilt ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Vanderbilt will eventually work his way into a larger part of the Lakers’ rotation, but he has only been able to play three games this season after being sidelined with a heel injury. He has been limited to 14 or 15 minutes and chipped in a few stats, but he doesn’t have a big enough spot at this point to make him anything but a punt play at this point.
