NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, May 22): LeBron James is Finally Showing His Age

Monday features Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets at 8:30 p.m. ET. Despite facing an 0-3 series deficit, the Lakers are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 224.5 points.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

The Lakers actually did a pretty good job against Nikola Jokic in Game 3, limiting him to just 24 points, six boards, and eight assists. It was his worst postseason performance since Game 1 vs. the Timberwolves, and Jokic played just 28.5 minutes in that contest. He played more than 38 minutes on Saturday, so the Lakers did an excellent job of keeping him under wraps.

That said, Jokic did manage to take over in the fourth quarter, scoring 15 of his 24 points in the final 12 minutes. That’s not a huge surprise since Jokic has done basically whatever he wants all playoffs. Prior to Saturday, Jokic had scored at least 70.25 DraftKings points in nine of his previous 10 games, including seven straight.

There is simply nothing that Jokic can’t do on a basketball court. He’s capable of dominating as a scorer, passer, and rebounder, making him a nightly triple-double threat. He’s averaged 1.73 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s managed to maintain that production despite playing more minutes during the postseason.

Ultimately, Jokic is the easy call for top stud on this slate. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he ranks first in projected Plus/Minus as well.

Jokic also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

Anthony Davis doesn’t provide a ton of salary relief, but he is slightly cheaper than Jokic and possesses a comparable ceiling. Davis has already been the optimal Captain once this series, which is something that Jokic can’t say. He’s also been in the optimal lineup in all three games, which only he and Jamal Murray have accomplished.

LeBron James may go down as the greatest player in NBA history, but this is clearly Davis’ team now. LeBron has struggled to find his offense in this series, so the team has had to lean a bit heavier on Davis. He leads the squad in usage rate in this series, and he’s also been a more efficient scorer than LeBron.

Davis also brings a bit more upside in the peripheral categories thanks to his work on defense. He’s tallied at least two blocks in each game in this series, and he’s been a beast on the glass all playoffs. He has double-digit boards in six of his past seven games, including 18 rebounds in Game 3 vs. the Nuggets. He should be locked into at least 50 DraftKings points, and he has a ceiling of around 70.

Has Father Time finally caught up to LeBron? The King has deferred to his teammates throughout the postseason, and he’s started to look his age during this series. An “aging” LeBron has still averaged 23.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game vs. the Nuggets, but he’s shooting just 15.8% from 3-point range. His usage rate is also down to just 26.5%, which is a far cry from what we’ve come to expect from LeBron during the playoffs.

This is no disrespect to LeBron. The fact that he’s still this effective despite the number of minutes he’s played in his career is nothing short of remarkable. That said, we can’t play everyone in this matchup, and he stands out as the clear No. 4 option behind Jokic, Davis, and Murray.

Speaking of Murray, he may be a bit overlooked during the regular season, but he has earned plenty of praise for his work during the postseason. He willed the Nuggets to a win in Game 2, scoring a Jordanesque 23 points in the fourth quarter, and he followed that up with 30 points in the first half of Game 3. The Lakers did a much better job against him in the second half, limiting him to just seven points on 2-9 shooting, but Murray still finished with at least 54.25 DraftKings points for the third straight game.

Ultimately, Murray has provided the same level of per-minute production as Davis and LeBron in this series, but he’s done it at a slight discount. His salary continues to creep up, but he’s proven he can return value at his current salary.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Austin Reaves has become the Lakers’ clear No. 3 option. That might have seemed crazy at the start of the year, but it’s not even a debate at this point. He’s scored at least 32.0 DraftKings points in six straight games, including at least 36.75 in all three games vs. the Nuggets.

Reaves is also one of the few players in this series who has increased his production during the postseason. He’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute during the year, but that figure is up to 0.92 over the past month. He’s also projected for nearly 40 minutes in our NBA Models, and he could play even more if this game is competitive.

Michael Porter Jr. isn’t scoring as much as usual during the postseason, but he’s blossomed into a more complete fantasy player. Specifically, his work on the glass has been a welcome addition. He’s pulled down at least 10 boards in four of his past seven games, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a double-double in all four contests. He’s responded with at least 36.0 DraftKings points in all four games. MPJ doesn’t play quite as many minutes as the pricier players in this matchup, but that doesn’t prevent him from standing out as a solid option.

D’Angelo Russell leads the slate with a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but I still have zero interest in him. His playing time plummeted in Game 3, finishing with just 20 minutes, but that’s still about 20 minutes too many. He has been exploited all series, and Darvin Ham has to take him off the floor. We currently have him projected for around 20 minutes again on Monday, but it wouldn’t shock me if that figure is actually even lower.

Like Russell, Aaron Gordon has also been pretty ineffective in this series. He’s not nearly the same liability on defense, but he’s scored less than 20 fantasy points in three straight games. That said, he’s at least still playing 30+ minutes, so it’s much easier to make a bounce-back case for him. He’s another option who stands out on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating.

Bruce Brown has had an indelible mark on the Nuggets this season. His role can vary from night to night, but he’s been productive whenever he is on the floor. He had 27.75 DraftKings points across 37.3 minutes in Game 2, and he had 31.25 DraftKings points across 28.8 minutes in Game 3. His salary is up, but he still has a positive projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the direct pivot from Brown. Both players have a correlation of -0.17 on DraftKings, so one tends to succeed when the other fails. Brown’s expanded workload in Game 2 was at the direct expense of KCP, who was limited to just 25.7 minutes.

His workload returned to normal in Game 3, and he responded with 26.25 DraftKings points. KCP is far from the greatest per-minute producer, but he’s now scored at least 26.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He’s more expensive than usual, but his likely minute count keeps him on the DFS radar.

NBA DFS Value and Punt Picks

• Rui Hachimura ($4,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): If we’re looking to jam in multiple studs, we’re going to need to find some value plays. Fortunately, Hachimura stands out as an excellent option. He was outstanding for the Lakers in Game 2, finishing with 27.0 DKFP in 30.1 minutes and landing in the Captain spot in the optimal lineup. He wasn’t quite as productive in Game 3, but he still finished with 24.0 DKFP across 33.7 minutes. Hachimura’s playing time should be pretty safe on Monday, and it wouldn’t shock me if he moves into the starting lineup.
• Dennis Schroder ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Schroder is another player who should be playing more than Russell at this point. He’s the team’s best defensive option at point guard, and that has value against a red-hot Murray. Unfortunately, Schroder’s defensive priorities have tanked his offensive production, with Schroder averaging just 0.56 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
• Lonnie Walker IV ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Walker has been a decent source of value at times during the playoffs, and he’s coming off 14.25 DraftKings points in Game 3. He’s projected for another 18 minutes in Game 4, and he’s proven that’s enough to make him worth considering.
• Jarred Vanderbilt ($2,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Vanderbilt has started the past two games for the Lakers, but that hasn’t made much difference for fantasy purposes. He’s played 16.8 minutes or less in both games, and he’s scored just 3.25 and 6.5 DraftKings points. He’ll garner some ownership if he remains in the starting lineup, but I’m not particularly interested.
• Jeff Green ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Green played a series-high 23.5 minutes in Game 3, and he responded with 12.0 DraftKings points. That feels like a bit of an outlier, but he’s projected for around 20 minutes again in Game 4. Green doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value, and he trails only Hachimura in projected Plus/Minus in the value tier.
• Mo Bamba ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Bamba is a big x-factor on this slate. He was officially removed from the team’s injury report, so he will be available to play in Game 4. How much he actually sees the floor remains to be seen, but there’s a chance he sees a handful of minutes off the bench. The team is looking for big bodies to throw at Jokic, and Bamba certainly fits that description. Bamba has averaged 1.03 DKFP per minute for the year, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to provide value. We’ve already seen a min-priced player find the optimal lineup in this series, even though that player scored zero DKFP. If the top studs all go off – something that happens pretty frequently – just getting a handful of points from Bamba could be enough to crack the optimal lineup.