Friday night features Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics are listed as nine-point home favorites after losing Game 1 on Wednesday, while the total sits at 215.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
As will continue to be the case throughout this series, the big choice at the top of your fantasy roster is between superstars Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler.
Tatum was solid in Game 1 with 30 points, seven assists, 40.75 DraftKings points, and 38.9 FanDuel points, but he was a little too passive and actually didn’t have a field goal attempt in the fourth quarter. He only took 17 shot attempts during the game compared to his average of 21.2 field goal attempts in this year’s playoffs. With more urgency in Game 2 to avoid a 0-2 hole headed to Miami, look for Tatum to be much more aggressive.
Tatum’s projected ceiling is slightly higher than Butler’s on DraftKings, while Butler gets the advantage on FanDuel in our NBA Models due to his defensive stat production. In Game 1, he added six steals to his 35 points, seven assists, and five boards. That is just enough to boost his ceiling, median and floor projections past Tatum’s on FanDuel.
In the playoffs, Tatum has produced 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute, and Butler has produced 1.32 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute. Their numbers are extremely close, but given the game script and how desperately his team needs him, I’d give the edge to Tatum for this game.
Both are so solid, though, that you could definitely make the case that both need to be included in your roster builds. Due to their hefty salaries, though, building with one of them at Captain and including the other is extremely difficult. Instead, it can often make more sense to include both in your lineup and instead use a peripheral player in the Captain’s spot. Rolling with any other option as Captain is riskier than choosing Tatum or Butler, but it also raises your lineup’s ceiling if you choose the right midrange player who goes off.
There’s a pretty big dropoff after Tatum and Butler down to Jaylen Brown and Bam Adebayo. Brown led the C’s with a 31.9% usage rate in Game 1 and had 22 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. He has actually outproduced salary-based expectations on DraftKings in 10 of his last 11 contests in the playoffs. He’s only averaging 1.03 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute in the playoffs. He comes in well below the production rate of Butler and Tatum, to be sure, but his salary does offer significant savings. If you think that Tatum will struggle, it could makes sense to build around Butler and Brown as an alternative, although Jaylen and Jayson have also proven they can both have big games in the same contest.
Brown doesn’t have as high a ceiling as Butler or Tatum, but he’s much easier to fit in a roster that includes one of the megastars.
Adebayo falls into the same category as Brown but offers even more potential savings. His ceiling projection almost matches Brown’s on DraftKings and actually exceeds it on FanDuel. Like his teammate Butler, Adebayo gets a boost from his non-scoring production.
Bam has averaged 1.07 DraftKings and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute in the postseason and has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four of his past five games. If you decide to build around Tatum as a Captain, Adebayo is a very nice complementary option.
Adebayo gets a boost in this matchup and typically puts up big numbers against the Celtics. He had 20 points, eight rebounds, five assists, 38 DraftKings points and 37.1 FanDuel points in Game 1. He also has triple-double upside, which he showed off earlier this postseason with a monster game that netted him 56.5 DraftKings points against the Knicks.
Bam is popping in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations:
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Al Horford and Marcus Smart are the higher-priced mid-range options on this slate, and both offer high ceilings but also come with some bust potential. Smart had eight assists in the first half of Game 1 as Boston built a good lead and finished with 13 points and 11 assists for one of his strongest playoff performances. His production has been volatile, though, and he actually finished with fewer than 25 DraftKings points in two of the final three games against the 76ers.
Horford was a hero against the 76ers and Joel Embiid in the last round, but since the Heat play smaller, it’s tricky for him and Robert Williams to both be on the floor together. Big Al has streaky three-point potential and can go off and stuff the box score, but he also can go quiet at times if Tatum and Brown run the show.
The highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in this contest actually belongs to Robert Williams. He is over 10 FanDuel points clear in that measure of everyone else on the slate and also has a wide lead on the best Pts/Sal on that site.
Williams moved into the starting lineup three games ago and has outproduced salary-based expectations in each of his last four. He had 14 points, seven rebounds, 24.25 DraftKings points, and 24.4 FanDuel points in Game 1. He has a 77% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and it makes a lot of sense to include him in those contests, given his pricing.
In the playoffs, Williams is producing 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute, and as long as he stays in the starting five and gets his typical workload, he’ll be one of the best mid-range plays on the board
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On the Miami side, Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin all scored exactly 15 points in Game 1. Their big games alongside Butler’s hero ball were enough to steal the win, and combined, the four players shot a blistering 22-of-39 (.56%) from the field. They each hit exactly three three-pointers while going 12-for-22 (55%) from long range. If that foursome is going to play that well, the Heat are going to be virtually impossible to beat.
Of the four, Vincent and Strus are in the starting lineup and are projected for more minutes on Friday. Lowry is actually projected for a higher ceiling than Strus, but we know Strus can get hot and pile up a ton of points in a hurry. The highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest ceiling of the group belongs to Vincent, who is also a little more affordable than Strus and Lowry. Of the group, Vincent makes the most sense on a per-dollar basis.
Martin also brings a high ceiling, and he can stuff the stat sheet in his best performances. However, he is projected for under 15% usage and usually doesn’t get quite as many shots as the other options in this salary range. Of all four of these players, his Game 1 feels most like an outlier.
During the regular season, Boston’s defense was excellent against 3-pointers, allowing just 11.8 made 3-pointers per game, which was the fifth-best mark in the league. They’ll need to focus on cooling these four players down, and some regression seems almost inevitable in Game 2.
The highest ceiling projection of all the mid-range plays belongs to Celtics’ backup guard Malcolm Brogdon who played 37 minutes in Game 1. He had 19 points but didn’t have many non-scoring numbers. He is projected for 31 minutes and a 22.3% usage rate in this contest, and he’s emerged as the Celtics’ third scoring option behind Tatum and Brown. He has been outplaying Derrick White on a regular basis.
In the playoffs, Brogdon has produced 0.91 DraftKings points and 0.85 FanDuel points per minute. He and Williams are my two top plays from the midrange for Boston, while Vincent would be my top option from Miami, with Strus in play as a wild card as well.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kevin Love ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Love plays the lightest workload of any of the 10 starters in this series, but he does offer some flier upside on FanDuel since he’s so cheap. He had eight points and six rebounds in just 16 minutes in Game 1, so there is some punt play upside. However, he’s priced just below Robert Williams on DraftKings, so his relative price doesn’t make a lot of sense where there is much more upside potentially available from players in a larger role.
- Duncan Robinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Robinson has re-entered the Miami rotation after multiple injuries and played six minutes in Game 1. He does have the potential to catch fire and hit some threes, but his role is very uncertain, and he went just 0-for-2 in the first game of the series. Like love, there is some flier potential, but he doesn’t have much of a floor at all, and there’s a good chance you end up with a goose egg from the spot if you fill it with Robinson.
- Cody Zeller ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Zeller actually played more minutes than Robinson in Game 1 and was the best punt value play on DraftKings. It’s worth going up for Love or Robert Williams on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, it’s surprising that Zeller is still just $1,000 while other players getting zero minutes are priced above him.
- Grant Williams ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Williams slipped from the Celtics rotation in the last series against Philly and didn’t even play in Game 1. He always has the potential to come in and have a huge game and is a tough, hard-nosed presence whenever he’s in the game. He just doesn’t have much of a floor since there’s a chance he won’t play again.
- Payton Pritchard ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): The Celtics only used Brogdon, White, and Pritchard off the bench in Game 1, and Pritchard actually played 12 minutes. He missed his only two shots (both three-pointers) and only had one assist, but if you need a punt play from the minimum and you’re looking on the Boston side, Pritchard seems to be the best option. Boston will likely need to go smaller against the Heat than against the Sixers, and Pritchard is a solid way for them to do it. He had eight points in two of the games in the previous round and has been used by Joe Mazzulla to shake things up offensively off the bench. He played more than Robinson and got the same amount of shots, so there’s a little bit of sneaky upside with Pritchard, although he’s obviously still extremely risky at this salary. If you stuff stars everywhere else, though, Pritchard is my favorite minimum play.
