A late flurry was not enough for the Dallas Mavericks to overcome a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit. The Boston Celtics have taken a 3-0 series lead and are one win away from banner 18. The Mavericks are still one-point home favorites in Game 4 in a win or the season is over scenario. Can the Mavericks make the Celtics at least sweat out this NBA Finals, or will the Celtics cruise to one of the easiest playoff runs ever?
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
When the Mavericks needed Luka Doncic the most, he failed to show up. Not only did Doncic foul out with over four minutes left of Game 3, but he also shot only 11-for-27 from the field and 1-for-7 from behind the arc. That being said, he still has the highest projected ceiling on the slate for Game 4 and is drawing the most ownership for the captain position. Doncic remains the best top-tier option tonight.
After accumulating 72.25 DraftKings points in Game 2, Doncic finished Game 3 with only 44.50 DraftKings points. It was the second time in the entire postseason that Doncic had a negative Plus/Minus. Playing potentially his last game of the season, expect the league leader in usage rate and scoring to come out firing tonight. Doncic can provide fantasy points in so many ways and has a near-untouchable ceiling.
For the first time in this NBA Finals, Jayson Tatum has a higher projected Plus/Minus than Luka Doncic. It was only a matter of time until Tatum erupted in the scoring column after back-to-back mediocre games. Tatum needed 26 field goal attempts and a 35.7% usage rate, but he finally broke through with 31 points. He has shot 50% or better three times this postseason, but Tatum’s volume makes him an excellent play.
The biggest news for Game 4 is, once again, is the status of Kristaps Porzingis. He missed Game 3 with an injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. With Porzingis off the floor during the regular season, Tatum had a team-high +3.29% usage rate. The Celtics are loaded across the board at every position, but Tatum remains the top-scoring option and will get more opportunities if Porzingis is unable to play in Game 4.
Right behind Tatum is the current NBA Finals MVP frontrunner Jaylen Brown. Through the first three games, Brown has been the most consistent player on the floor. He is averaging 24.3 points per game while shooting 55.1% from the field. In Game 3, Brown hit critical shots down the stretch and finished with 30 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. He is proving to be an elite weapon on both ends of the floor.
Brown, ironically has scored the same amount of DraftKings points as Tatum in the first three games (138). The best part is Brown comes with a $1,600 discount from Tatum in Game 4. Given how consistent and dominant Brown has played, he looks like the best Celtics player to pay up for. His projected ceiling may not rival Tatum’s, but Brown could be hoisting the Larry O’Brien and the NBA Finals MVP trophies tonight.
Game 3 was a vintage Kyrie Irving performance where the electric guard scored 35 points and posted a playoff-high 37.7% usage rate. His peripherals were non-existent, but Irving had to take on more of a scoring role with Doncic struggling and eventually fouling out. A similar output may be in store tonight with the Mavericks’ backs against the wall. Like Game 3, expect Irving to be aggressive from the jump.
All four of these stud options have a 98% Bargain Rating with their attached salaries. Getting exposure to at least two, if not three of them, feels like the optimal strategy. With that in mind, Irving at $9,000 is an incredible option, especially if he is going to attempt anywhere close to 28 field goal attempts again. If the Mavericks are going to force a Game 5 back in Boston, they will need another great game from Irving.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Previously mentioned Kristaps Porzingis is in danger of missing his second-straight NBA Finals game with his lower leg injury. Even if he is able to suit up, it is difficult to get exposure to his $8,000 price tag. He is not in our Player Model, and even if he was, Porzingis would arguably be the worst play on the slate given his injury. The best outcome for Porzingis is playing 20 minutes and shooting the lights out like Game 1.
Derrick White has been a consistent role player, scoring at least 15 points in seven of his last eight playoff games. Nearly all of his scoring production comes from shooting behind the arc. Exactly 75% of his field goal attempts in the NBA Finals have come from downtown, where he is shooting at a 40.7% clip. White also has spike games where his defensive stats pop. He is consistent and a strong mid-range value play.
Jrue Holiday is similar to White but looks a little better in our tools. Behind Tatum and Doncic, Holiday has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position tonight. He is one of four players that is projected to play over 40 minutes, as he has done in his last two games. Getting exposure to both White and Holiday is a necessity, but Holiday has the slight upper hand due to his cheaper price tag for Game 4.
PJ Washington has not shot the ball well in this series, but he is still averaging nearly a double-double with 14.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. The matchup for all of these Mavericks’ players is difficult, but Washington is the team’s third-best scoring option and comes at a reasonable $6,200 salary. Outside of Doncic and Irving, he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus among Mavericks’ players tonight.
With Porzingis ruled out in Game 3, our projection for Al Horford came to fruition. He played a series-high 37 minutes, but his fantasy production was a little disappointing, finishing with 0.63 DraftKings points per minute. Given Porzingis’ status for Game 4, Horford is projected to play heavy minutes again, and he always has the potential for a ceiling game with his perimeter shooting. He is a good value in all formats.
The Mavericks’ centers have ping-ponged in production and salary this entire series. Dereck Lively II‘s salary skyrocketed $1,000 after his incredible Game 3 performance. He played 30 minutes and had an 11-point, 13-rebound double-double while shooting 5-for-6 from the field. Lively scored 34.25 DraftKings points and even with his salary rising, he is the best value on the slate if he comes close to that output.
After a near double-double in Game 2 with 13 points and nine rebounds, Daniel Gafford took a backseat to Lively last game, playing only 16 minutes. He was productive in his playing time, finishing with six points and three rebounds, but Lively stole the show. One of these two centers has proven to be an optimal play. throughout this series. Gafford is certainly the cheaper option, but has a slightly smaller ceiling than Lively.
Derrick Jones Jr. saw his playing time get cut in half from Game 2 to Game 3 while the Mavericks were searching for any type of spark. It did not help that Jones Jr. was unproductive, with only two points, three rebounds, and one assist. It was the first time in his last 19 games that Jones Jr. did not record double-digit DraftKings points. His salary has depleted to $4,000, which is intriguing in a bounce-back opportunity.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Sam Hauser ($3,200): After shooting 0-for-5 from the field in Game 2, Sam Hauser bounced back with a strong Game 3 performance, burying three 3-pointers and finishing with 15.75 DraftKings points. Hauser has recorded two games with over 15 DraftKings points and one game with just two points. He is a risky value play, but his perimeter shooting can catapult him into the optimal lineup.
- Josh Green ($3,000): Josh Green finally recorded double-digit DraftKings points for the first time in his last six games. He is still playing around 20 minutes per game and can get hot from behind the arc. Given his playing time, Green is probably the safest punt pick among the group. However, even though Green will likely get 20 minutes again tonight, he is a punt play for a reason. Tread carefully.
- Payton Pritchard ($2,600): Payton Pritchard has been disappointing to say the least. Throughout the first three games, Pritchard is shooting a pitiful 1-for-13 from the field and 1-for-9 from behind the arc. That one made field goal was an end-of-the-quarter deep 3-pointer. He was averaging double-digit DraftKings points earlier in the postseason so the potential is there.
- Xavier Tillman ($2,600): Xavier Tillman came out of nowhere to get 11 minutes and was productive with three points, four rebounds, and two blocks in Game 3. It was his first time getting on the floor for the NBA Finals. He is projected for the same amount of minutes tonight, but will likely only play if Porzingis is ruled out. Make sure to monitor that news the closer we get to lock to deploy Tillman.
- Mavericks Dart Throws: The Mavericks are looking for help anywhere they can find it. They tried the Tim Hardaway Jr. experience in Game 3, playing him 19 minutes, but he ended with ZERO DraftKings points while shooting 0-for-5 from the field. Maxi Kleber is still getting valuable playing time for some reason and failing to produce. Dante Exum and Jaden Hardy are picking up the scraps but have played well in specific spots. All four bench players are extreme tournament dart throws.
