Friday features Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics at 9 p.m. ET. The Celtics were able to secure a 2-1 series lead with their victory in Game 3, and they’re four-point home favorites in Game 4. With a win, they would take full control of this series. Historically, teams with a 3-1 lead have historically won the series at a greater than 95% clip. With that in mind, this is essentially a must-win contest for the Warriors.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Jayson Tatum is the most expensive player in this contest, and he continues to provide elite production during the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his past 13 contests, including all three games vs. the Warriors.
That said, he hasn’t even shot the ball particularly well in this series. He’s made just 33.9% of his field-goal attempts, which is well-below average for a scorer like Tatum. He shot 44.6% in his previous three playoff series, so he has ample room for improvement moving forward. Tatum has averaged 8.3 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game during this series, so he has excellent upside with some better scoring numbers.
Tatum continues to stand out as the strongest fantasy option in our NBA Models. His median projection leads all players by nearly five points, and he owns the top ceiling projection as well. Tatum also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, so he’s also one of the best pure values on the slate.
While Tatum has struggled as a scorer, Steph Curry has had no such issues. He’s scored at least 29 points in all three games vs. the Celtics, and he’s drilled at least five 3-pointers in each. Overall, he’s shot 48.5% from the field and 48.6% from 3-point range in his past three games.
The Warriors have leaned on a host of scoring options during the earlier rounds of the playoffs, but it’s been all Curry during the Finals. He’s increased his usage rate to 34.0% vs. the Celtics, which represents a sizable increase from his mark of 30.4% in the Western Conference finals.
Curry’s increased scoring upside gives him a solid ceiling, but it’s fair to wonder if he can continue to shoot this well vs. the Celtics. They were the best defensive team in basketball during the regular season, and their halfcourt defense has been elite during the postseason. Curry is capable of going off against anyone, but it’s reasonable to expect a bit of regression moving forward.
Overall, Tatum is just $200 more expensive on DraftKings – and he’s cheaper than Curry on FanDuel – making him the preferred option. Playing both together is certainly viable, but Tatum has the edge if you can only fit one.
Jaylen Brown has been outstanding for the Celtics during the playoffs. He was instrumental in their fourth-quarter comeback win in Game 1, and he poured in 17 points in the first quarter of Game 3. Brown has now scored at least 36.0 DraftKings points in seven of his past nine games, and he’s scored at least 45.25 in four of them.
That makes Brown arguably a better pure value than Curry given the sizable price difference. He’s -$1,200 cheaper on DraftKings and -$1,500 cheaper on FanDuel, yet his median and ceiling projections are just slightly lower. He’s been in the optimal lineup in each of the Celtics’ two wins in this series, so he makes a lot of sense if you think the Celtics are going to win on Friday.
Interestingly enough, only one of the three games in this series has featured a “Stud” at Captain, and it was Curry in Game 1. Tatum has appeared in the optimal lineup just once through the first three games. The value options in this series have been uninspiring, so going for a more balanced build has more merit than usual.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
This is the area that has dominated this series from a DFS perspective. Marcus Smart is the next-most expensive option at $7,800, making him a full -$2,000 cheaper than Brown on DraftKings. He has played extremely well of late, racking up at least 36.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. The only exclusion was in Game 2 of this series, where he played just 25.1 minutes in a blowout loss.
Smart returned to his usual 39.4 minutes in Game 3, and he has plenty of appeal if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time. He’s one of the few players on this slate who has actually increased his per-minute productivity over the past month, and he was a utility in the optimal lineup in Games 1 and 3.
Like Smart and Brown, Al Horford has also been an optimal player in each of the two Celtics’ wins. His scoring production has been down over the past two games, but he’s made up for it with his work in the other categories. Horford had eight boards, six assists, one steal, and one block in Game 3, which propelled him to 34.5 DraftKings points.
However, Horford seems a bit overpriced when compared to his peers. Smart is just $200 more expensive, and he offers significantly more upside. Horford’s usage rate has been at 11.3% and 9.9% over his past two contests, and it’s scary to roster someone with such minimal scoring upside. He was able to overcome that with a 5-7 shooting performance in Game 3, but you can’t count on that kind of efficiency every night. He’s my least favorite option in this price range.
Andrew Wiggins led the Warriors in playing time in Game 3, and he’s been a steady contributor during the postseason. Wiggins has scored at least 34.25 DraftKings points in seven of his past nine games, and the two exceptions were games where he played reduced minutes.
That kind of consistency is appealing, but it does come with a lack of upside. Wiggins has eclipsed 40 points just twice during the postseason, so he doesn’t possess the same ceiling as some of the other players in this range. That makes him a much better choice at utility than Captain.
Klay Thompson busted out of his scoring slump in Game 3, finishing with 25 points and 39.75 DraftKings points over 39 minutes. That was good enough to make him the optimal Captain on DraftKings.
That said, Thompson still has room for improvement. He was 7-17 from the field and 5-13 from 3-point range, and while those are good numbers, Thompson is capable of better.
That makes Thompson one of the best overall plays on the slate. His ceiling projection trails only Tatum, Curry, and Brown in our NBA Models, and he ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus. He’s an even stronger play on FanDuel, where he’s vastly underpriced at $10,000.
Draymond Green is next on the pricing spectrum, and his lack of scoring continues to plague his fantasy upside. He’s scored nine points or fewer in each of his past three games, and he’s scored fewer than 30 DraftKings points in all three contests. He’s still capable of piling up the peripherals, but it’s hard to provide much fantasy value with such minimal scoring numbers. Green is still worth consideration on DraftKings given his 99% Bargain Rating, but he’s tough to trust.
Kevon Looney is even tougher to trust. He’s played a huge role for the Warriors during the postseason, but his impact in this series has been minimal. His minutes have decreased in each game, culminating with just 16.8 minutes in Game 3. If his playing time is going to continue to dwindle, he’s going to struggle to return value at $6,400.
Robert Williams has been limited by a knee injury all postseason, but he was arguably the Celtics’ best player in Game 3. The Celtics outscored the Warriors by +21 points during his 26 minutes, so expect him to continue to play as much as humanly possible.
Williams is probably due for a bit of regression after racking up four blocks and three steals in his last outing, but he’s one of the best per-minute producers in this series. As long as he can stay on the court, he has appeal at his current price tag.
Smart and Williams both saw an uptick in minutes in Game 3, which had a negative impact on Derrick White. He had played at least 30.3 minutes in each of the first two games of this series, but that number plummeted to just 23.6 in Game 3. White appeared in the optimal lineup in each of the first two games – the last such player with multiple appearances – but his price tag has increased to $6,000 for Game 4. He’s projected for just 26 minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s a clear fade at that number.
Jordan Poole rounds out this price range, and he’s an interesting option. His salary has come way down of late, and he remains a very gifted offensive player. However, his role has been minimal vs. the Celtics, logging 25 minutes or less in all three games. He has a bit of buy-low appeal, but he’ll need to be super-efficient barring an increase in playing time.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Otto Porter ($4,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): This price range has been basically a disaster during the Finals, with just one player appearing in the optimal lineup through the first three games. That was Payton Pritchard in Game 1, which was the game where Curry went off for 56.25 DraftKings points. Porter hasn’t played enough in this series to provide much value at $4,800, but he’s a decent option at $7,500 on FanDuel. He’s a capable per-minute producer, and he should see around 20 minutes in Game 4.
- Grant Williams ($4,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Williams is coming off his best game of the series in Game 3, finishing with 18.25 DraftKings points over 20.2 minutes. However, his usage rate of 19.0% was unusually higher, and Williams is typically one of the worst per-minute producers in fantasy. He’s an easy fade at his current price tags.
- Payton Pritchard ($3,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Pritchard saw a bit of run in the first two games of this series, but most of that was in garbage time. His playing time fell to just 9.8 minutes in Game 3, and he’s projected for just 12 minutes in our NBA Models.
- Gary Payton II ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Payton remains the strongest option in this price range. He didn’t play nearly as much as expected in Game 3, but he was a vital part of their rotation in their only win in this series. He could definitely see a few extra minutes in Game 4.
- Nemanja Bjelica ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Bjelica played 10.6 minutes in Game 2, but he was essentially out of the rotation in Game 3. With the Warriors essentially in a must-win contest, don’t expect him to play much more in Game 4.
- Andre Iguodala ($1,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): The same goes for Iggy, who didn’t see the court until the fourth quarter of Game 3. He’s banged up, and he’s not bringing much to the table at this point.
- Daniel Theis ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Theis picked up a DNP-CD in Game 3, but he could get some run if this game turns into a blowout. I would only really consider him in lineups with five members of the Celtics, and even that is a bit optimistic.
