The second half of the NBA season officially kicks off on Wednesday. However, there’s just one game to choose from. The Lakers will host the Hornets at 10 p.m. ET, and they’re currently listed as 12.5-point home favorites. The total on this contest sits at 228.0 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Most of the offensive firepower in this contest is going to come from the Lakers. Not only is their implied team total 12.5 points higher, but they possess two of the biggest stars in all of basketball.
Luka Doncic is their new acquisition. He was acquired in one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, but he’s been eased into action with his new team. He missed his final 19 games with the Mavericks after suffering an injury on Christmas, and he’s been limited to less than 24 minutes in his first two games with his new squad.
However, J.J. Redick told reporters that Doncic would not have a minute restriction moving forward. That means the coast is clear for Doncic to put his full skill set on display for the first time in purple and gold. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes on this slate, giving him plenty of appeal at just $10,600. The last time he took the floor with a full workload, he was priced at $13,000 on Christmas.
Doncic likely won’t have to carry as large of a burden for the Lakers as he did with the Mavs. Through his first two outings, he’s averaged “just” 1.30 DraftKings points per minute. That’s still a very good figure, but it represents a significant decrease from his average of 1.58 in Dallas.
The good news is that his underlying metrics still look solid. Doncic has posted a usage rate of right around 35% through his first two outings; he just hasn’t shot the ball particularly well. He’s knocked down 40.7% of his shots from the field and 26.7% from 3-point range, both of which are significant decreases from his career norms. He should be due for some positive regression in both areas.
The bigger question is how much his peripheral stats will be impacted. He averaged 8.4 rebounds and 7.9 assists per 36 minutes in 22 games with the Mavs this season, but he’s at 6.9 and 6.1, respectively, through two games with the Lakers. That’s a small sample size, but it stands to reason that he won’t have to do quite as much in those areas alongside LeBron James.
Still, this is undoubtedly a good price tag for Doncic. He leads all players on this slate in median and ceiling projection, so it’s a solid opportunity to buy low on one of the most talented players in basketball.
Speaking of James, his production also figures to be impacted by the addition of Doncic. So far, he’s shared the floor with Luka for just 36 minutes through their two games together. In those minutes, James posted a usage rate of just 27.7%, which represents a significant decrease from his mark of 30.4% overall. His production has dipped to just 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in that split.
James is still going to have plenty of opportunities, but sharing the floor with Luka is a lot different than sharing the floor with Anthony Davis. Luka needs the ball in his hands to be effective; Davis didn’t. Expecting a decrease in per-minute effectiveness for LeBron is very reasonable moving forward.
However, like Doncic, his price tag has come down to a point where he can survive a decrease in production. He’s priced at just $10,200, but he’s been as high as $12,800 in recent games. He trails only Doncic in median and ceiling projection, and he’s No. 4 in projected Plus/Minus.
LaMelo Ball is technically priced just below the “stud” range at $9,800, but I’m including him here anyway. When he’s been on the floor for the Hornets this season, he’s undoubtedly been stud-like. He’s averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s coming off 24 points and 10 assists in his last full outing.
That said, Ball’s production is trending downward. He started the year as an absolute usage monster. He averaged 31.1 points per game through his first 18 contests, and he led the league with a 39.6% usage rate. Ball was routinely getting up 30 shots per game, and he also remained the team’s primary distributor, posting an assist rate of 44.9%.
Ball has been in and out of the lineup since then. He’s played in just 15 contests since, but his usage rate has declined to a much more palatable 32.9%. Even with Brandon Miller out of the lineup for large chunks of that stretch, Ball has averaged roughly five fewer field goal attempts per game.
He still has the potential to be an excellent per-minute contributor, but it remains to be seen how much he’ll actually play on Wednesday. He’s played in just two of the Hornets’ past nine outings, and he played 10.3 minutes in one of them. Ball is probable to suit up on Wednesday, but with the team already out of the playoff race, there’s no reason to push him too hard.
That makes Ball a high-risk, high-reward option. If he sees a full workload, $9,800 is probably too cheap for him. That’s particularly true in a matchup vs. the Lakers. They’ve been a below-average defensive team this season, and they should be worse with Doncic replacing Davis in the rotation. We currently have Ball projected for 33 minutes, giving him a solid ceiling in this contest.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Miles Bridges headlines the midrange options in this matchup. He started the year quietly, serving as the No. 3 option behind Ball and Miller. However, the injury to Miller has allowed Bridges to take on a larger role of late. He’s seen a team-high usage bump with Miller off the floor this season, and he’s responded with an average of 1.19 DraftKings points per minute.
However, most of his best recent games have come with Ball also out of the lineup. Across his past nine contests, Bridges has posted a usage rate of at least 28.8% seven times. He’s been above 30% in six of them. Unfortunately, the two exceptions were the two games where Ball was active during that stretch. He posted usage rates of 23.1% and 22.8% in those outings, so his ceiling is significantly lower when playing alongside LaMelo.
That puts Bridges significantly behind the stud producers from a value standpoint. His projected Plus/Minus is roughly half that of the three studs, but he’s still projected for more than 40% ownership. That makes him an appealing fade option.
Like Ball, Mark Williams is also expected to make his return to the lineup on Wednesday. He’s missed the past four games for the Hornets, and injuries have been an issue for him for most of his short career. In fact, the only reason Williams is still playing for the Hornets is because he was unable to pass a physical with the Lakers. They traded for him to replace Davis in their rotation, but the Lakers had enough concerns with him during the physical to ultimately nix the deal.
That said, Williams has absolutely dominated when he’s been on the floor this season. He’s averaged 15.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game this season despite averaging just 25.0 minutes per game.
That makes Williams one of the more volatile options on this slate. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he sees that much playing time, he has the potential to smash. In 26 career games with at least 28 minutes of playing time, he’s responded with an average of more than 40 DraftKings points per game. That includes 45.43 DraftKings points in 11 such games so far this season (per the Trends tool).
However, there’s also a chance that Williams plays far less than that. Not only is it his first game back in the lineup, but the Hornets have two other centers who will likely see minutes in this contest. I like Williams as a contrarian target against a soft Lakers’ interior – he’s projected for less than 30% ownership on this slate – but there’s plenty of downside here as well.
What becomes of Austin Reaves with Doncic now in town? That’s one of the biggest fantasy questions facing the Lakers following their blockbuster deal. Reaves had taken over as a borderline fantasy stud following the trade of D’Angelo Russell to the Nets. In 19 games without Russell before Luka’s debut, Reaves averaged 41.0 DraftKings points per game.
The early signs for Reaves are promising on paper. He’s shared the floor with Doncic for 41 minutes over the past two games, and he’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in that split.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to see his production as sustainable. His usage rate has plummeted to 12.6% when sharing the floor with Doncic, which represents a massive decrease from his 23.3% mark overall. He’s survived thanks to excellent shooting efficiency and a spike in his rebound metrics over that time frame, so there is plenty of room for regression moving forward.
Reaves still stands out as a solid value in our NBA Models, thanks primarily to a cheap price tag. He’s down to $8,400 on DraftKings after spiking at more than $10,000, and his price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. I’m still a bit skeptical of Reaves – especially at the second-highest projected ownership on the slate – but he trails only Ball in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
After Reaves, there’s a pretty steep dropoff to the next tier. Rui Hachimura is next on the pricing spectrum, but he doesn’t provide nearly the same upside. His ceiling projection is at least 10 points lower than each of the more expensive options.
Like Reaves, Hachimura has maintained his per-minute efficiency despite the addition of Doncic. He’s averaged better than a fantasy point per minute when sharing the floor with Luka, and he’s scored at least 19 points in back-to-back games.
That said, he’s shot an unsustainable 55.2% from the field in those outings, including 54.5% from 3-point range. His playing time has also dipped in those contests, logging just 30.1 and 29.1 minutes. With Doncic expected to play more moving forward, it’s hard to imagine Hachimura seeing an uptick in minutes on Wednesday. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged just 0.78 DraftKings points per minute for the year.
Jaxson Hayes has served as the Lakers’ starting center following the Davis trade, which is enough to put him on the fantasy radar. He hasn’t been an elite per-minute producer for a center – he’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute – but he’s 21.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five outings.
The lone exception was his last game, where he exited after just 7.5 minutes with a facial contusion. He’s probable to return to the lineup on Wednesday, and he should resume his role as the team’s primary center. We currently have him projected for 26 minutes, which is enough for him to potentially return value.
Moussa Diabate and Jusuf Nurkic are both priced in this range for the Hornets, but it’s hard to get excited about either with Williams expected to play. Both guys are projected for 13 minutes or fewer, and it’s tough to do damage with such limited court time.
If you do want to go that route, Nurkic is the more intriguing option. He’s not projected for quite as much playing time – and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he didn’t see the court at all – but he’s the far superior fantasy producer on a per-minute basis. He had nine points and eight boards in less than 16 minutes in his Hornets’ debut, so he seems like the better bet to take advantage when he is on the floor.
Dalton Knecht is another player who is tough to get excited about. He was the player that the Lakers shipped to Charlotte in the trade that was ultimately canceled. Now that he’s back in Los Angeles, it’s tough to see where he fits in the rotation. He’s had some moments as a rookie, but he’s projected for just 17 minutes vs. the Hornets.
Josh Green and Dorian Finney-Smith round out this price range. Neither player is a great per-minute producer, but they’re at least expected to see a decent amount of court time.
Green is projected for 27 minutes, and he’s had some decent performances for the Hornets of late. That includes 16 points in his last outing. Unfortunately, he doesn’t provide much in the way of peripherals, so he’s going to need a hot shooting night to pay off his current price tag. With Ball and Williams back in the lineup, that doesn’t feel particularly likely.
Finney-Smith isn’t as reliant on scoring as Green to return value, but he’s projected for just 22 minutes. His salary has crept up over $5,000, and it’s tough to click on him at that figure.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- KJ Simpson ($4,800): Simpson was a second-round pick for the Hornets in 2024, and he’s had some moments for the team in recent games. That said, he’s not expected to be nearly as relevant on Wednesday. He’s currently projected for just 10 minutes, so he’s too expensive at $4,800.
- Jordan Goodwin ($4,600): Goodwin is also projected for 10 minutes on this slate, but he at least brings some per-minute upside to the table. He’s cracked double-digit points in two of his past three games, and he had 11 shot attempts in less than 22 minutes two games ago.
- Alex Len ($4,400): It remains to be seen if Len will be a factor for the Lakers moving forward. He saw playing time in their last outing after Hayes exited with an injury, but we’re not expecting him to play on Wednesday.
- Nick Smith ($4,200): Smith stands out as the clear top option in this price range. His workload has been pretty secure recently, averaging 29.4 minutes in 14 games since moving into the starting lineup. He was limited to just 16.2 minutes in his last outing, but that feels like an outlier. We have him projected for 30 minutes on Wednesday, and it’s hard to find a player with that kind of workload for a sub-$5k price tag.
- Gabe Vincent ($4,000): Vincent should see some backup PG responsibilities for the Lakers on Wednesday, and he’s had a decent role when on the floor recently. That said, he’s averaged just 0.56 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s projected for just 15 minutes vs. the Hornets.
- Jarred Vanderbilt ($3,400): Vanderbilt missed most of the early season for the Lakers, but he’s suited up in nine of their past 10 games. His role has grown over that time frame, averaging 18.6 minutes over his past five outings. He’s expected to see a similar number of minutes on Wednesday, so he’s another solid value target.
- Seth Curry ($2,800): Curry went off for the Hornets two games ago, but his role has been minimal with Ball available this season. Still, he’s a dead-eye 3-point shooter, so he has the potential to provide value if he gets hot from deep.
- Elfrid Payton ($2,600): Payton has also had some viability for the Hornets with Ball sidelined, but he’s projected for just seven minutes on Wednesday.
- Tidjane Salaun ($2,400): Salaun is the most intriguing punt play on this slate. He was the Hornets’ No. 1 draft pick in 2024, and he should continue to earn more playing time moving forward. The team is clearly playing for the future, so finding out if Salaun can be a part of that should be one of their top priorities. He’s expected to see around 21 minutes on this slate, so he should be a staple of “stars and scrubs” roster constructions.
