Tuesday features just one NBA contest, and it’s the conclusion of the NBA Cup. The Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder will square off in the final, with the winner joining the Lakers as the only two franchises to win it. The Thunder are listed as 4.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 215.5.
OKC has been the top team in the West this season, and you could make the case that they’re the best team in the league. Their 20-5 record puts them just 0.5 games behind the Cavaliers for the best record in basketball, while they’re No. 1 in Net Rating.
The Bucks got off to a dreadful start this season, but they have turned things around of late. They’ve won 12 of their past 15 games, pushing them to 14-11 for the year and sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
This is an extremely top-heavy slate, with four “stud” options to choose from. That includes two of the best players in fantasy: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Both players have put up some huge numbers this season, and they’re going to set you back quite a bit if you want to use one at Captain.
Let’s start with Giannis. Antetokounmpo is somehow in his 12th professional season – where does the time go? – and he’s on pace to do something he’s never done in his NBA career: win the scoring title. He’s leading the league with an average of 32.7 points per game, which would represent a new career high. His 36.6% usage rate represents a significant increase from last year’s 33.0% mark, and only LaMelo Ball has posted a greater mark so far this season.
Of course, scoring is just part of the equation with Giannis. He’s also capable of gobbling up peripherals, averaging 11.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.71 DraftKings points per minute for the year.
The only downside with Giannis on Tuesday is that he’s going to have to navigate one of the toughest matchups in basketball. The Thunder are first in the league in defensive efficiency, and Giannis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.37. That’s not one of the worst marks on the slate, but it’s not great, either.
Still, Giannis is capable of going off against anyone, and he’s played extremely well of late. He had 74.0 DraftKings points in the semifinal matchup vs. the Hawks, and he had 56.25 DraftKings points in the quarterfinals vs. the Magic. Orlando is arguably an even tougher matchup than OKC – they’re third in defensive efficiency and have played at a significantly slower pace – so if he can succeed against them, he can do it against anyone.
Unsurprisingly, he leads the slate in most of our projections, including projected ceiling. He’s also second in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s definitely a viable target.
Gilgeous-Alexander is available at a slight discount compared to Giannis, which makes sense: Giannis has had a better season. However, SGA is still putting up huge numbers. He’s averaged 30.3 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game, and he’s also among the league leaders in steals. The result is an average of 1.51 DraftKings points per minute.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been even better of late. He’s increased his production slightly over the past month, partly due to the absence of Chet Holmgren. He’s seen a team-high +1.51% usage bump with Holmgren off the floor, and he’s also seen a slight bump to his assist rate. Overall, he’s responded with 1.55 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he’s posted at least 63.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
From a matchup standpoint, SGA has a clear edge over Giannis. Not only is his team the favorite – giving him a superior implied team total – but the Bucks have been the better matchup in general. Gilgeous-Alexander owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.34, which is the top mark on the slate.
Ultimately, Gilgeous-Alexander is pretty comparable to Antetokounmpo in both median and ceiling projection, and he has a slight edge in projected Plus/Minus. Given the cheaper price tag, he’s arguably the best pure value on the slate.
Damian Lillard is Giannis’ running mate, and he was acquired before the start of last season to give the team another elite offensive option. Unfortunately, that hasn’t exactly worked out as planned. Lillard is still a very good player, but he hasn’t been able to push the team to the next level.
The good news is that Lillard has played better in his second season with the Bucks. His scoring average and assists are both slightly up, while he’s shooting a higher percentage from the field and 3-point range. He’s also turned in some strong fantasy performances of late, including 50.5 DraftKings points in his last outing.
Unfortunately, Lillard is going to have his hands full on Tuesday. The Thunder have a number of elite defensive guards, making the matchup significantly tougher for him than it is for Giannis. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of -7.71, which is the second-worst mark on the slate.
Lillard has the worst projected Plus/Minus in the stud tier, and most people will likely prioritize pairing Giannis and SGA. It’s hard to disagree with that lineup construction, which could result in Lillard being slightly under-owned.
Jalen Williams rounds out the stud tier, and he enters this contest in the worst recent form of the quartet. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two outings, topping out at just 35.25 DraftKings points.
However, Williams has been a solid producer all season. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points with Holmgren off the floor, and he simply hasn’t shot the ball well of late. He’s just 16-41 over his past two contests despite shooting better than 50% for his career.
He ultimately checks in with superior projections to Lillard at a slightly cheaper price tag. That makes him the preferred option of the two.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Isaiah Hartenstein missed most of the early season, but he’s played in each of their past nine games. With Holmgren out of the lineup, that has allowed him to take over as the team’s starting center. He’s fared well in that role, averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute.
Hartenstein’s playing time has been a bit inconsistent. However, when he’s gotten to the 30+ minutes mark, he’s typically returned value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games with at least 30 minutes of playing time, and he’s projected for a very healthy 34 minutes on Tuesday.
Like Lillard and Williams, it’s tough to fit Hartenstein alongside SGA and Giannis – especially if you use one at Captain – so he could be a bit undervalued on this slate.
The center minutes in Milwaukee are split between Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez. There’s a bit of overlap between the two players – they’ll occasionally share the court together – but they’re ultimately negatively correlated.
Portis has been the better producer of late. He’s gone for at least 35.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s logged more than 30 minutes in two of them.
Unfortunately, his playing time dipped pretty drastically in his last game. He finished with less than 23 minutes, resulting in just 26.25 DraftKings. It wasn’t a case of foul trouble either, so Portis’ role could be on the decline.
Lopez was unsurprisingly the biggest beneficiary. He logged nearly 33.5 minutes in his last contest, and his 25.75 DraftKings points were his highest output in two weeks.
Ultimately, we have Lopez projected for 32 minutes and Portis for 26 in this contest. Neither player stands out as a particularly strong value at their current price tag, but both have some upside depending on how the minutes fall.
Khris Middleton is back in the lineup for the Bucks, but he’s not really playing enough to do much damage. He’s played 23.1 minutes or fewer in all four contests, and he’s topped out at 28.25 DraftKings points. That came in his very first contest, and he’s been at 23.0 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight.
It’s possible that Middleton will see a slight bump in minutes on Tuesday – we currently have him projected for 24 – but that’s still not really enough to move the needle. His 1.08 DraftKings points per minute isn’t terrible, but he’d need to be extremely efficient to return value at his current price tag.
Lu Dort is a much more reasonable option in this price range. He’s coming off a huge showing in his last outing, finishing with 40.25 DraftKings points in 31.3 minutes. That’s a bit of an outlier, but Dort has historically been able to return value with a comparable volume of minutes. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute for the year, but he’s increased that figure to 0.85 with Holmgren off the floor.
Dort ultimately stands out as the second-best value in this tier, trailing only Hartenstein in projected Plus/Minus.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Cason Wallace ($4,800): Wallace is one of the best sources of savings on this slate. He’s routinely playing 30+ minutes per game for the Thunder, and he had 34.0 DraftKings points two games ago. He’s averaged a very respectable 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in games without Holmgren, so he’s simply too cheap.
- Alex Caruso ($4,400): Caruso has not had nearly the impact that the Thunder were hoping for after being acquired in a trade this offseason. Part of that has been because of injuries, but he’s simply not seeing a ton of action at the moment. Perhaps that will change as the season progresses, but he’s projected for just 22 minutes vs. the Bucks. Still, Caruso is a solid per-minute producer, so he at least has a smidge of upside.
- Taurean Prince ($4,000): The same cannot be said for Prince. He’s not particularly efficient with his opportunities, and his playing time is on the decline. He’s a clear stay-away at $4,000.
- Gary Trent ($3,600): Trent is a bit more reasonable at $3,600. He at least has a smidge of scoring upside, going for 20 points a few games ago. He’s also projected for slightly more minutes than Prince.
- Andre Jackson ($3,200): Jackson is up to $3,200 after going for 23.75 DraftKings points in his last outing. That gives him some appeal, but it’s possible he could be overowned but those who are box-score chasing.
- A.J. Green ($3,000): Green has seen a solid handful of minutes recently, including more than 32.5 two games ago. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he has a solid floor for his price tag.
- Isaiah Joe ($2,800): Joe is a 3-point shooting specialist, and he stands out as one of the strongest values in this price range. On nights where his shot is falling, he has the potential to put up a strong number.
- Kenrich Williams ($2,400): Williams has had a couple of solid performances of late, but he only logged 10.7 minutes in his last outing. That said, his price tag has dipped from $3,400 to $2,400, giving him a touch of buy-low appeal.
- Aaron Wiggins ($2,000): Wiggins has logged less than 10 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s not a particularly strong per-minute producer. That makes him pretty uninspiring, even at just $2,000.
- Ajay Mitchell ($1,600): I’d rather go with Mitchell over Wiggins, who fits a similar mold. His playing time is equally volatile, but he’s a bit more capable of making the most of his playing time.
