The first round of the NBA playoffs is almost in the books. The only series yet to be concluded is the Grizzlies vs. the Timberwolves, and those two teams will square off in Game 6 Friday at 9 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Tier
Ja Morant headlines this slate, and he’s coming off a memorable performance in Game 5. He nearly triple-doubled, finishing with 30 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists, resulting in 65.25 DraftKings points. He also threw done one of the best in-game dunks in the history of the postseason:
JA MORANT JUST OBLITERATED MALIK BEASLEY 🤯
DUNK OF THE YEAR EASY 🏆
🎥: @GrizzOnBally pic.twitter.com/eMS2cJw8MO
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 27, 2022
The best part? Morant didn’t even shoot the ball particularly well in that contest. He was just 9-22 from the field, 1-4 from 3-point range, and 11-17 from the free throw line. He’s like due for some regression in the peripheral categories, but he can make up for it with some better shooting luck.
Overall, Morant leads our NBA Models in a variety of projections, including median projection, ceiling projection, and fantasy points per minute. He also stands out as one of the best values on the slate, ranking second in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He deserves heavy consideration for one of the premium spots in your lineup.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the other stud option. He’s slightly cheaper than Morant across the industry, but he grades out similarly from a projection standpoint.
Towns hasn’t been quite as productive as Morant during the postseason, but much of that stems from foul trouble. He’s been limited to 24.3, 28.0, and 32.8 minutes in his three worst postseason performances, and he’s racked up 16 total fouls in those contests. In the games where he’s managed to avoid foul trouble, he’s averaged 54.9 DraftKings points over more than 40 minutes per game.
Predicting fouls is obviously impossible, but Towns has proven he can pay off his current salary with a solid workload. He should be asked to play a ton of minutes on Friday with the Timberwolves facing elimination, making him arguably the top overall play on the slate. He’s expected to carry the most ownership, but he leads all players in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Pairing Morant and Towns is the ideal start to your lineups tonight. It’s not going to be contrarian, but history suggests that you want to jam as much high-end production into your lineups as possible. You can look for spots to be different with the rest of your lineup, but it’s hard to replicate what Towns and Morant bring to the table. Both players own a ceiling projection of greater than 71 points, and no other player is within even 15 points in our NBA Models.
NBA DFS Midrange Tier
Anthony Edwards has the potential to be a stud someday, but he’s not quite there yet. He’s mostly just a scorer at this point, and his lack of production as a distributor or rebounder keeps him firmly in the second tier.
Edwards has been hit-or-miss in this series, scoring 45.5 DraftKings points or more in two games and 33.75 or less in the other three. Ultimately, he seems a bit overpriced on DraftKings, where it will be tough to fit him alongside Towns and Morant.
I’m much more inclined to use him on FanDuel, where his $12,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
D’Angelo Russell is the other member of the Timberwolves “big three,” but his production has lacked during the postseason. He’s scored 29.5 DraftKings points or four of his past five games.
However, his price has decreased to just $8,200 on DraftKings, and he has some buy-low appeal at that number. He’s been a better per-minute producer than Edwards over the course of the year, thanks in part to his assist upside. He averaged 7.1 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game this season, while Edwards averaged just 3.8 and 4.8 respectively.
The main reason for Russell’s struggles has been his inability to make any shots. He’s shot just 32.3% from the field during the postseason, which is roughly 10% lower than his career average. Buying low on players who haven’t shot well is one of my favorite strategies in the single-game format. Russell is going to get hot eventually, and when he does, he’s going to pay off his current salary quite easily. He grades out better than Edwards in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and I’d much rather roster him on Friday.
The Grizzlies have a ton of secondary options who can pop off on a given slate, but Desmond Bane has been their most consistent producer. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 42.0 DraftKings points in each of the past three.
That’s caused his salary to rise from $7,200 in Game 2 to $8,600 on in Game 3. It’s hard to get too excited about Bane at that price tag. Unlike Russell, Bane has shot the ball extremely well of late, drilling 51.4% of his 3-pointers over the past three games. Bane is an excellent perimeter shooter – he made 43.6% of his 3-point attempts this season – but he still seems like a regression candidate on Friday. The Timberwolves do have an exploitable defense from behind the arc, but I expect to be underweight on Bane.
Brandon Clarke has been the Grizzlies’ biggest surprise during the postseason. After spending most of the year playing just a handful of minutes off the bench, he has emerged as a legitimate producer during the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five games vs. the Timberwolves, including 47.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. He also played nearly 37 minutes in his last contest, which was easily his top mark of the postseason.
Clarke’s minutes are going to play a huge part in how you feel about him on Friday. He’s always been an excellent per-minute producer, but his salary has risen drastically across the industry. We currently have him projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes his current salary feel a touch high. He has clearly benefitted from Jaren Jackson Jr.’s inability to stay out of foul trouble, but we should expect less playing time on Friday.
Speaking of Jackson, he’s now cheaper than Clarke across the industry. That will happen when you can’t stay on the court. He’s fouled out in each of the past two contests, despite playing just 41 total minutes. He also racked up five fouls in Game 3, which limited him to just 21 minutes.
Jackson’s tendency to foul everything that moves isn’t a new development, but it has been amplified in this matchup vs. Towns. He has some upside if he manages to keep his hands to himself in Game 6, but he’s shown zero ability to do that so far in his young career. Still, I’ll have some exposure at $10,000 on FanDuel, where he’s $-2,000 cheaper than Clarke.
Dillon Brooks has dealt with a foot injury during the postseason, which has limited his productivity. He did score the ball well in Game 4, finishing with 24 points on 10-20 shooting, but he’s shot a combined 23.2% in Games 2, 3, and 5. That’s not going to get the job done.
Still, Brooks continues to fire at well when on the floor. He had 18 shot attempts in his last contest, which gives him plenty of upside at his current salary. If he can find his shooting stroke, he should be able to pay off his reduced price tag. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Finally, Patrick Beverley has been a factor for the Timberwolves all season. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s racked up at least 33.7 minutes in two of his past three games. His playing time was slightly down in his last contest, but he’s projected for 31 minutes in Game 6. That makes him a very reasonable midrange option.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Kyle Anderson ($5,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Anderson is another one of the Grizzlies’ seemingly endless options at power forward. He has a fantasy-friendly skillset – he can rack up points in a multitude of ways – but the playing time isn’t quite there at the moment. He’s a much stronger option on FanDuel than DraftKings.
- Tyus Jones ($4,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Jones is extremely important to the Grizzlies’ success, and he’s played well of late. He’s racked up at least 19.25 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s played at least 20.3 minutes in his past two. Jones has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should continue to find success with that much playing time.
- Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,600 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel): Vanderbilt is way too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s a nice option on DraftKings. His playing time was cut to just 22.1 minutes in Game 5, but that didn’t stop him from scoring 21.5 DraftKings points. Vanderbilt has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season, so 22 minutes is enough to make him viable.
- Malik Beasley ($4,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Beasley is another capable per-minute producer, but he isn’t playing enough during the postseason. He’s logged just 11.6 and 14.3 minutes in his past two games, and he’s projected for just 14 minutes in our NBA Models.
- Xavier Tillman ($3,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Tillman is technically starting at center for the Grizzlies, but he’s the clear No. 4 option in the frontcourt in terms of playing time. He’s also mediocre on a per-minute basis, so there’s not much to get excited about here.
- De’Anthony Melton ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Melton didn’t even see the court in the Grizzlies’ last game, and he played 7.5 minutes or fewer in the previous two. Jones is getting virtually all of the backup PG minutes, so Melton doesn’t figure to be a factor on Friday.
- Jaden McDaniels ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): McDaniels has been playing around 20 minutes per night in the postseason, and he shouldn’t carry much ownership on this slate. That makes him a very nice tournament option. He’s coming off just 11.5 DraftKings points in Game 5, but he’s displayed a ceiling of more than 30 fantasy points in this series.
- Jordan McLaughlin ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): McLaughlin is another strong option in this price range. He’s had back-to-back strong outings, and he racked up 17.4 minutes in Game 5. That may not sound like a ton of playing time, but it’s excellent for a $2,000 player.
- Naz Reid ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Reid will serve as the backup center behind Towns. That gives him some upside if Towns gets into foul trouble, but expect KAT to handle most of the minutes in an elimination game.
- Taurean Prince ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Prince rounds out this price range, and it wouldn’t shock me if he carries the highest ownership in this tier. He played 18.8 minutes in Game 5 and responded with 17.75 DraftKings points. If he plays a similar role in Game 6, he should definitely be able to return value.
