The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Toronto Raptors – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
This should be no surprise that Luka Doncic tops the list as the top ceiling point guard on the slate. What I found most encouraging was despite the massive blowout against the Atlanta Hawks (113-87) in their season opener, Doncic still logged 35 minutes. He shot a very pedestrian 6-17 from the field but still managed to tally up 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists.
Doncic led the league last season in usage with 35.9%. I expect more of the same this season as the Mavericks didn’t bring in much offseason help. The matchup against the Raptors isn’t ideal as they have many strong defenders, but the usage for Doncic sets him apart amongst the rest of the point guards on this seven-game slate.
He also is one of the best pay-up options on the slate for both sites.
Top Value: Tyler Herro at Indiana Pacers – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Can I be your Herro baby? After a dominating preseason, Tyler Herro kept that same momentum in his first game of the season shooting 10-18 from the field on his way to a team-high 27 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Last season was a struggle for Herro as he battled injuries and was in and out of the starting lineup. He looks to be a completely rejuvenated player this season.
This spot sets up very well for the young guard. The Pacers are playing their third game in four nights and are coming off of an overtime loss last night. Defense has been optional thus far for the Pacers. They have allowed the most points per game with 129 and have allowed their opponents to shoot 46.4% from 3-point range. Sharp-shooting Herro will have plenty of opportunities to reach value tonight.
Monitor Kyle Lowry’s status as we get closer to lock, who is questionable right now with an ankle injury. If he is unable to go, that makes Herro an even better value tonight.
I like Herro on both sites, but he is a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel, where he has a 76% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Let’s run it back with Zach LaVine since he has been fantastic to start the season. He has back-to-back 30+ point games and has averaged over 50 DraftKings points per game. LaVine is shooting 61% from the field and 50% from downtown.
This matchup was already played out with a Bulls victory over the Pistons 94-88 in their season opener. Very low scoring, but LaVine was still able to score a team-high 34 points. There are plenty of mouths to feed on this new-look Bulls team, but LaVine has had a 32.5% usage rate in their first two games, which leads the team by nearly 5%. The longest-lasting Bulls player has been very efficient with a True Shooting percentage of 76.7%.
I expect more of the same in this early season rematch against the Pistons tonight.
Top Value: Chris Duarte vs Miami Heat – $3,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
I’m not sure who’s running the algorithms at DraftKings, but Chris Duarte was $3,300 in their first game, then catapulted to $6,000 last night, and now is back down to $3,900 tonight. This seems like a lock and load situation at his price tag.
The rookie from Oregon has been outstanding for the Pacers in his first two games playing monster minutes. Granted, the Pacers played in an overtime game last night, but Duarte has averaged 39 minutes per game in his first two NBA games. Pretty crazy to see that kind of trust from a rookie. He has delivered in those minutes, averaging 21.0 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 52.9% from behind the arc. He has scored 30 or more DraftKings points in both games.
Durate is a much better value on DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
With Kawhi Leonard out indefinitely, this could be a career year for Paul George. He started his campaign off with a boom performance against the Golden State Warriors, going for over 55 DraftKings points on a 30.7% usage rate. In 11 games without Leonard last season, George had an absurd 37.5% usage rate.
There is nobody on the Memphis Grizzlies who is going to stop George from getting the shot he wants. The price for George may seem high, but this is close to where he was when Leonard was out for games last season. I do believe the other studs on this slate are better options to pay up for, especially in low-risk contests. However, George still has a massive ceiling with this much usage and provides great leverage on the other top options on this slate, especially in tournaments.
Top Value: Desmond Bane at Los Angeles Clippers – $3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
A great value at the small forward position where we are always looking for value is Desmond Bane and his 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Bane started in the Grizzlies’ first game and had the second-most field goal attempts as he shot 8-16 from the field for 22 points. With Jonas Valanciunas out of town and Dillon Brooks still out due to injury, there is more usage to go around, and it seems as though Bane is ready to gobble up a good chunk of that. Bane had a usage rate of 16.2% in his rookie season, and in his first game this season, his usage rate was 29.2%.
If you haven’t noticed, this slate is turning out to be another popular stars and scrubs lineup build. Fitting in Bane to pay up for the studs on the slate seems like the right way to go tonight.
He will be popular, but it is deserved as he is the top value at the small forward position.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at San Antonio Spurs – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
The reigning NBA Finals MVP is the best pay-up option on the slate once again. Giannis is the highest projected player in the Phan Model tonight by a fairly comfortable margin, and he has the highest ceiling. Getting Giannis at a discount to Doncic on DraftKings makes him a must for low-risk contests tonight.
Last game Giannis only played 23 minutes as the Bucks got absolutely ran out of the gym against the Miami Heat. They were down 40-17 after the first quarter, and it only got worse from there. Anything can happen in the NBA, but this is a 6-point spread in favor of the Bucks tonight over the San Antonio Spurs, so I don’t expect this game to get away on either side. With Brook Lopez out, Giannis will likely start at the center position again tonight.
Monitor the status of Jrue Holiday, who could also miss this game.
Top Value: Scottie Barnes vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
After being priced at $4,500 on DraftKings last night and crushing for 45.8 DraftKings points, it’s safe to say Scottie Barnes will be pretty popular tonight at a discount of $4,000. Barnes has a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Similar to Duarte, who I mentioned above, Barnes is getting heavy minutes for a rookie with 34 per game. He leads the Raptors in points per game with 18.2 and is tied for the most rebounds per game with 11.0. In the Mavericks’ first game they allowed their opponents to grab 55 rebounds! This bodes well for Barnes to get ample opportunities to clean up the glass and potentially get another double-double bonus on DraftKings.
My only concern for Barnes tonight is that he may get into foul trouble when he gets matched up on Doncic. He was in foul trouble in his first game and a few times in the preseason. However, at this price tag, the opportunity still outweighs the risk.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The price tag shot up for Karl-Anthony Towns, but it is deserved. Towns went off for 30 points, and 10 rebounds as the Timberwolves handled the young Houston Rockets 124-106 in their season opener. Towns gets another good matchup tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans. This game has the second-highest over/under on the slate at 228, with the Timberwolves being favored by 6.5-points at home.
Towns has had his way with the Pelicans in his career. He has averaged a double-double on 22.8 points per game and 12.8 rebounds per game. No Zion Williamson again for the Pelicans, so there is no scare on defense. I do prefer Giannis as the top option on the slate, but Towns vs. Doncic is a real decision if you wanted to plug in two players priced over $10,000 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Precious Achiuwa vs. Dallas Mavericks – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Another Toronto Raptors starter that is far too cheap. The minutes aren’t nearly as good as they are for Barnes, but the production is still very strong. Achiuwa went off for 15 points and 15 rebounds last night in 25 minutes against the Boston Celtics. As long as Achiuwa is in the starting lineup at this price, he is going to be a fantastic value.
As I mentioned with Barnes, the rebounding numbers the Mavericks gave up in their first game will provide a ceiling for Achiuwa. A potential double-double ceiling. Since signing Kristaps Porzingis three years ago, the Mavericks have yet to crack the top half in rebounding for a season.
Achiuwa provides value on a slate where we want to pay up for the studs.
