The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
The best game environment on the slate is this showdown between the Hawks and Nets. The total is the highest on the slate at 242 points, which is 24 points higher than the other two games. The Hawks are 2.5-point home underdogs, despite having the same 40-37 record as the Nets. These two teams plus the Hornets are all tied for the eighth seed in the Play-In Tournament.
Big-time players show up for big-time games. Trae Young is that guy. Over the last six games, Young is averaging 30.7 points, 10.8 assists and 53.4 DraftKings points per game while shooting 51.3% from the field. John Collins remains out for the Hawks, which increases Young’s ceiling. In 21 games without Collins, Young is averaging a double-double with 32 points and 10.3 assists per game.
Top Value: Kyle Lowry at Chicago Bulls – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
The salary for Kyle Lowry continues to fall on DraftKings to a point where he is now under $6,000 for the first time all season. The Heat are fully healthy, which limits the upside of Lowry, but he is coming off a game where he shot 8-of-16 from the field and 6-of-12 from behind the arc. He finished with 23 points and eight assists as the Heat beat the Celtics on the road by eight points.
Minutes are the key to these Heat players and Lowry specifically. Lowry has played 36 or more minutes in four out of his last six games. The two games he didn’t, the outcome was decided by 15 or more points. This matchup against the Bulls will be close. Despite a 45-32 record, the Bulls rank 20th in defensive rating this season. Lowry is a nice value option, especially on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Atlanta Hawks – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
The playing time for Kyrie Irving has been insane, but he has found himself in a shooting slump at the wrong time. Irving is shooting just 35.6% from the field over his last four games while averaging 19 points and 35.5 DraftKings points per game. The salary on DraftKings doesn’t feel warranted, but FanDuel at $9,200 is offering a salary that has a 96% Bargain Rating, which is promising.
The Nets have a very favorable schedule down the home stretch and this would be a massive victory if they can pull this off. This matchup features one in which Irving can exploit. The Hawks rank 26th in both defensive rating and 3-point percentage allowed at 36.4%. Despite Irving’s struggles shooting the ball, he has made four or more 3-pointers in six out of his last eight games.
Top Value: Alex Caruso vs. Miami Heat – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Shooting guard value is looking very bleak on this three-game slate. Alex Caruso is popping as a good value play on FanDuel as he has provided a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last seven games. In order to fit in some of these studs on the slate, we will need to look to someone like Caruso for a salary saver. It helps that Caruso is projected for 30 minutes with Lonzo Ball still out.
Similar to the Hawks, the Bulls are small home underdogs against the Heat tonight. The Bulls struggle against the top teams in the Eastern Conference. They are 0-3 against the Heat this season, losing by a combined 39 points in their last two games. The Bulls have four-straight critical home games against all playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. Caruso’s defense will be needed.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Miami Heat – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Is DeMar DeRozan back to peak February when he scored over 31 points in 10-straight games? Over the last three games, DeRozan is averaging 39.7 points and 57.2 DraftKings points per game. He also has a usage rate of 37.9% during that time while making 33-of-34 from the charity stripe. Pretty impressive that in his 13th season, DeRozan is averaging a career-high 28 points per game.
DeRozan’s salary on DraftKings provides an extremely good amount of value on this slate. He has averaged a +14.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus in his last three games. Playing the Heat is always tough as they play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league. The Bulls are implied to score 107.25 points, which is the lowest on the slate. They will need a big game again from DeRozan.
Top Value: Andrew Wiggins vs. Utah Jazz – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry for the remainder of the regular season. Using our On/Off Tool, the second-best Warriors player in usage rate without Curry on the floor this season is Andrew Wiggins. The first is Jordan Poole, but his price has escalated too high at this point. Wiggins is the best value option on the slate on FanDuel, where his price provides a 94% Bargain Rating.
Wiggins will need to be aggressive scoring the ball tonight as the Warriors are only projected for 108 points tonight against this historically strong Jazz defense. Where to attack this Jazz defense is on the perimeter. Wiggins is shooting a career-high 38.6% from behind the arc this season. It is the second-straight season Wiggins has shot 38% or higher from downtown.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Atlanta Hawks – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Kevin Durant has been keeping this team in games with his ridiculous scoring ability. Durant is averaging 29.6 points per game this season while shooting 52% from the field. He has shot over 50% from the field in nine-straight seasons. His peripherals are climbing as well, averaging a career-high 6.2 assists per game, which raises his ceiling.
Durant has averaged 58.4 DraftKings points per game over his last six games, which includes a game where he scored fewer than 40 DraftKings points because the Nets blew out the Heat on the road. Durant also has a 31.3% usage rate per game this season which is tied for the third-highest in his career. Durant has the highest ceiling in our Tournament Model making him tough to ignore.
Top Value: Otto Porter Jr. vs. Utah Jazz – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Another Warriors value player who is showing well in our model is Otto Porter Jr. He has been very boom-or-bust lately when he is in the lineup. Over the last five games, Porter has three games where he had a double-double in each, averaging 14.7 points, 14 rebounds and 37.6 DraftKings points per game. The other two games he averaged 4.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 14.1 DraftKings points per game.
The inconsistency of Porter’s game makes him a great tournament play as he has upside at this price tag to be the key piece in breaking the slate. The playing time has stayed steady for Porter, but the production is sporadic. The rebounding upside that Porter has shown is incredible. Getting a player who can double-double at this salary on a small slate is a game-changer tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert at Golden State Warriors – $7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Without Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid on the slate, the center position from a ceiling perspective feels low. Rudy Gobert continues to be a monster, especially on the glass. Gobert is leading the league in rebounding, averaging a career-high 14.6 rebounds per game. He is also averaging 15.4 points per game while shooting a career-high 71.4% from the field.
Another stat that boosts Gobert’s ceiling, especially on FanDuel, is his shot blocking. Gobert is averaging more than two blocks per game for the eighth consecutive season. The Warriors are one of the least blocked teams in the league because they shoot so many 3-pointers. However, Gobert will find his way to a couple of blocks and likely get his 49th double-double of the season in this matchup.
Top Value: Andre Drummond at Atlanta Hawks– $6,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
The best value play on the entire slate on DraftKings and third-highest on FanDuel is Andre Drummond. He is projected to have the highest ownership as he continues to thrive in the Nets’ starting role. Over the last 11 games, Drummond is averaging a double-double with 13.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game while shooting 65.6% from the field. Lock him in to your cash games tonight.
Not only do the Hawks struggle defensively, they also have had a tough time defending the paint without John Collins in the lineup. The Hawks rank 20th in points allowed in the paint and are coming off a game where they just allowed 56 points in the paint to the Cavaliers. Drummond is projected to play 28 minutes and feast on the Hawks interior defense. Fade at your own risk.
Photo Credit: Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: DeMar DeRozan
