The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
New offer from FantasyLabs: Get our NFL models and tools free when you sign up for the NBA monthly plan!
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has gotten off to a rough start this season, and he’s coming off a dismal 24.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. It wasn’t entirely his fault – he was limited to just 24.1 minutes in a blowout loss – but it still resulted in a Plus/Minus of -29.11 on DraftKings.
Doncic’s poor start to the season could result in lower ownership on today’s slate, but it’s way too early to give up on him. He averaged 55.4 DraftKings points per game as a 21-year-old last season, and he stuffed the stat sheet with averages of 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. He’s also playing without Kristaps Porzingis, and Doncic averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute with Porzingis off the court last season. He’s going to turn things around soon, and his $10,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Russell Westbrook is expected to get the night off on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means Raul Neto should move into the starting lineup. He was excellent in his first game without Westbrook, finishing with 40.5 DraftKings points over 32.2 minutes, and he’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. He is expected to be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate, but I’m not sure how you can avoid him at just $3,400 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Bulls have a number of players currently dealing with health and safety protocols, particularly in their backcourt. That means they have very little depth behind Cody White at PG, who played more than 40 minutes yesterday vs. the Wizards. He should carry another large workload today, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel. He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Bucks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15.
The Hawks and Nets combined for a ridiculous 286 points on Wednesday, so let’s hope the rematch is just as entertaining. Vegas seems to think it will be given the 244.5 total, so this is obviously a game to target. Trae Young has scored at least 48.7 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, so he’s definitely in consideration at $9,700 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
D’Angelo Russell has struggled over his past two games, scoring just 9.0 and 36.25 DraftKings, but he still figures to benefit from the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves have suffered two blowout losses in those two contests, which has resulted in fewer minutes than usual for Russell. He averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with Towns off the court last season, so he has the potential to score a bunch of fantasy points if he can return to his usual workload today.
The Timberwolves’ past two contests have come against the Lakers and Clippers, but they have a much friendlier matchup today vs. the Wizards. They rank just 26th in defensive efficiency to start the season, and the Timberwolves are merely one-point underdogs. This looks like a breakout spot.
Value
The Hawks don’t stand out merely from a Vegas perspective on today’s slate. They’re also dealing with a few key injuries. Danilo Gallinari has already been ruled out, and De’Andre Hunter is currently listed as questionable. If Hunter is unable to suit up, it would open up a bunch of minutes on the wing for the rest of the roster.
Bogdan Bogdanovic and Cam Reddish stand out as the most likely beneficiaries. Both players are already playing solid roles for the Hawks, and both players have averaged at least 1.00 DraftKings points per minute to start the season. Any additional playing time would make them elite values at their current salaries across the industry.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal is an excellent bet to lead the Wizards in usage with Westbrook out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate to 36.4% with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.24 DKFP per minute. He played 39.1 minutes in his first game without Westbrook, so he has an immense ceiling in a great matchup vs. the Timberwolves.
Donovan Mitchell has been priced down to just $6,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. Mitchell has had a rough start to his season, but that is simply too cheap for a player of his caliber. He’s historically been priced at a comparable salary in 69 previous contests, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.36 in those games (per the Trends tool).
Small Forward
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has the chance to be one of the best values on the slate if LaMarcus Aldridge is unable to suit up. Aldridge is currently listed as questionable after missing their last contest, and DeRozan has increased his usage rate by +3.8% with Aldridge off the court this season. The result is an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and DeRozan played 36.0 minutes without Aldridge in their last game. Overall, DeRozan has scored at least 41.75 DraftKings points in three of his first four games, and his $7,300 price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Kelly Oubre has started to turn things around after a slow start to the season. He’s scored at least 30.0 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, but he still has plenty of room for improvement. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season despite the fact that he’s shot just 26.0% from the field and 4.8% from 3-point range. Those numbers are well below his career averages, so he’s due for some positive regression moving forward.
Fast Break
Kyle Anderson disappointed in his last outing, but he still has immense upside given the Grizzlies’ current injury situation. Ja Morant and De’Anthony Melton are both out of the lineup, and Anderson has increased his usage rate by +5.3% and his assist rate by +14.7% with both players off the court this season.
Gordon Hayward is another elite value today on DraftKings. His $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s scored at least 46.0 DraftKings points in two of his first four games. Overall, he’s averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Grizzlies.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant’s salary for his last matchup was an absolute joke. He was priced at just $8,400 on DraftKings, and he responded by scoring 63.25 fantasy points. His current price tag is a bit more reasonable, but it’s still too cheap given the number of minutes he’s playing. He has not been limited at all to start the season, and he’s currently projected for 34.9 minutes in our NBA Models. Durant has historically been an excellent option with a comparable salary and minute projection, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.00. This is a potential smash spot vs. the Hawks.
Value
Towns is not the only injury that the Wolves are dealing with at the moment. Josh Okogie is also out of the lineup, and while that injury isn’t nearly the same magnitude, it does open up a bunch of minutes for Jarrett Culver. Okogie has averaged 25.0 minutes per game this season, and Culver replaced him in the starting lineup last game vs. the Clippers. He struggled to just 16.0 DraftKings points, but he shot a dreadful 0-10 from the field in that contest. If he manages to find the hoop vs. the Wizards, he has the potential to be one of the best value plays on the slate.
Fast Break
Naz Reid was another disappointment for the Timberwolves in their last game, but he was limited to just 19.9 minutes in a blowout loss. He should see more minutes if today’s game is more competitive, which makes him a very appealing value at just $4,700 on FanDuel. He will likely draw another start at center in place of Towns, and his matchup vs. the Wizards results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.02.
John Collins is another player who’s underpriced on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,000, but he exploded for 45.5 FanDuel points on Wednesday vs. the Nets. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70 is the second-highest mark at the position.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been on an absolute mission to start the season. He’s recorded a triple-double in three of his first four games, and he currently leads the league with an average of 13.5 assists per game. Jokic is also shooting a ridiculous 62.5% from the field and 40.0% from 3-point range. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute to start the season.
That production is probably unsustainable over the course of a full season, but he should continue to serve as one of the premier fantasy players in the league. He’s capable of dominating a game as a scorer, rebounder, or passer, which is something that very few players can say.
He should see an even larger workload than usual today with Michael Porter Jr. out of the lineup. MPJ has posted a usage rate of 21.5% this season, so Jokic could be asked to score the ball a bit more than usual.
Value
Thomas Bryant is a bit more expensive than the typical “value” play, but he stands out as arguably the best center option on the slate. He’s coming off 40.75 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Bulls, and he should have no problems replicating that production vs. the short-handed Timberwolves. He’s added a 3-point shot to his repertoire this season – he went 3-3 from behind the arc in yesterday’s contest – and he remains an excellent producer around the rim on both offense and defense.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas failed to return value in the Grizzlies’ last game, but he should continue to benefit from an expanded workload. He’s playing more minutes with Jaren Jackson Jr. out of the lineup to start the season, and he has the potential to carry a larger usage rate sans Morant. He’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute through his first four games, and he’s in an excellent spot Friday vs. the Hornets.
If you’re looking for a true punt play on DraftKings, Daniel Gafford could be your guy. He looked explosive yesterday vs. the Wizards and finished with 29.75 DraftKings points in 22.3 minutes. There’s no guarantee he sees that much playing time again today, but he clearly has more upside than the typical min-priced player.
