NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, 11/12): Injuries Create Many Tuesday Opportunities

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.

It’s a loaded slate with plenty of studs, but tonight is a good reminder of the importance of injuries. Injuries create opportunity for teammates to increase minutes and usage, and they sometimes create opportunity for opponents too. Injuries create value.

Point Guard

Studs

Damian Lillard is one of those guys who will be in a lot of lineups because of the De’Aaron Fox injury, but be careful. That might actually make Dame’s matchup more difficult with more Cory Joseph minutes on tap. It also creates an opportunity for an easy Blazers win, which would cost Lillard some minutes.

Lillard is having a great start to his season, outperforming projections in all but two games. He’s playing a massive minutes load, too. That all sounds good, but it also means Dame is at peak salary for the year and might come with as much downside as upside at his price. We rate him with a -1.32 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.

It feels like Kyrie Irving has been just as impressive to start the season, but that’s probably because we only hear about the big games. Irving has been somewhat inconsistent from a production standpoint. He is also playing near peak salary. Irving has a difficult matchup against the Jazz who rank second in defensive rating this season. Irving does rate out with a slightly positive Projected Plus/Minus overall, but you’re not seeing a lot of value for your high investment on these two.

Value

It’ll be awfully hard to keep Cory Joseph out of your lineup. He looks like the obvious benefactor from the Fox injury — Joseph should start at point guard for Sacramento — and our models project him at 27.7 minutes. Joseph is just $3,700 at both FanDuel and DraftKings today.

That’s only $200 above the minimum at FanDuel and $700 above the DraftKings minimum. He isn’t typically a big fantasy points per minute guy, but whenever you’re getting a high minutes point guard for near the minimum, you need to look hard. Joseph has a monster +10.2 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.

If you really don’t believe in CoJo, you can pivot to Yogi Ferrell instead. Ferrell is the actual minimum salary on both sites, and he produces more fantasy points per minute. If you think he’ll get almost as many minutes as Joseph, he could be the better play or a smart pivot in tournaments. The two might even be worth playing together in a plus matchup against the Blazers, and both have shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings, too.

Fast Break

If you want to pay up for a point guard stud, Trae Young looks like an awesome tournament play. Young always has huge upside and is coming off back-to-back 60-point fantasy games. His Projected Plus/Minus is over +6 at both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s a very intriguing high upside play while everyone else is playing Dame or Kyrie or one of the Kings point guards.

Keep an eye on Ben Simmons, questionable with a shoulder injury. Simmons will never be cheaper, and he has an awesome matchup opportunity against Cleveland. If you’re sure he’s playing, he’s another high upside pivot.

Shooting Guard

Studs

Jimmy Butler has yet to find his scoring groove, but he’s still producing in fantasy. The Heat have yet to really field their whole team together for any stretch with all the injuries and missed time, and that will be the case again Tuesday night. Justise Winslow and Dion Waiters are out, and Tyler Herro is questionable with a sprained ankle. No Winslow means far more time on the ball for Butler, and that’s even truer if Herro is out too.

Butler has a +5.52 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings, and he’s only going for $7,800 there, so he gets a 91% Bargain Rating. He’s a nice option if you’re looking to spend at shooting guard there, but stay away at his $9,400 FanDuel salary.

Value

Remember that Fox injury? The biggest fantasy benefactor could end up being Buddy Hield. Sacramento will need more than ever from Buddy, and that might help him become more than just a scorer.

Hield has zero or one assist in all but three games this season, but he’ll have the ball a lot more in a plus matchup, and that should increase his upside a good deal. Buddy is the top rated shooting guard in our Phan Model, and he has a +5.73 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings.

Fast Break

Gary Harris is a quality play. He’s all the way down to just $4,500 on DraftKings after a really difficult start to the season, but he can always get hot and has a +5.73 Projected Plus/Minus and a 75% Bargain Rating at that price.

Spencer Dinwiddie is another option. He probably won’t be a popular play in a difficult matchup against Utah, but he has a Projected Plus/Minus over +5 at both sites thanks to an expected minutes boost with Caris LeVert out injured. That could make him a nice moderately priced pivot.

Small Forward

Studs

At age 34, LeBron James is transitioning into a different sort of player. His scoring is its lowest since his rookie year at 24.6 points per game, but he’s leading the league in assists with a career high 11.0 per game. What has limited him from a fantasy standpoint, relatively speaking, is that he hasn’t often put the scoring and passing together, and his usage is down below 30% over the past three games.

LeBron is still LeBron, but that limits his relative upside and leaves him at just +0.16 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, a product of his $11,500 price tag. He’s a better value at $10,500 on DraftKings, but still not a must play at such an inflated salary. Small forward doesn’t look like the position to spend up on tonight.

Value

For the third straight position, we’re going with a Kings player here. Make sure you get a couple Kings in your lineup — they’re playing in the game with the highest projected total, and they’re all undervalued with a presumed usage bump with Fox sidelined.

At small forward, that of course means Harrison Barnes. Barnes has outperformed projections in five straight and has a relatively high floor at a moderate price.

Fast Break

T.J. Warren is another option who will benefit from injury, with Jeremy Lamb and Myles Turner sidelined again. Warren has always been a scorer but has seen his scoring increase even further with all the Pacers injuries and a usage rate hovering around almost 25% of late. He has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at both FanDuel and DraftKings among small forwards.

Marcus Morris actually leads all small forwards with a +4.12 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel. His salary is on its way up, but he’s scored 28 or more points three times already in November and has taken on more of an alpha role in New York.

Power Forward

Studs

Anthony Davis is listed as probable with a shoulder injury, but he hasn’t always been the most durable, and it’s his shooting shoulder, so be careful. The Suns have actually played good defense thus far, so this is a tough matchup for Brow. He’s fallen below projections more than he’s surpassed them this season and has only one huge fantasy game, that 40/20 outing when he nearly hit all 27 of his free throw attempts.

A lot of Tuesday lineups will have either LeBron or Brow in them, but as well as the Suns are playing, you might want to avoid both. If you do want to play Davis, make sure to do it at DraftKings where his $10,000 salary gives him a 92% Bargain Rating compared to FanDuel.

Value

Domantas Sabonis looks like one of the best plays on the slate. Sabonis is another guy benefiting from injury opportunity, with Lamb and Turner sidelined. Goga Bitadze is out too, so Sabonis will get a bulk of the big man minutes. He has outperformed projections in all but one game this season and has been playing around 38 minutes a night lately with all these injuries.

Sabonis has a monster +9.47 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings (and center eligibility), but he’s a great play in any format. He could benefit even more from injury if his opponent, Steven Adams (questionable), ends up missing out.

Fast Break

We finally kept the Kings out of our top value, but both Richaun Holmes and Nemanja Bjelica get a shout here. Both fours have an awesome matchup opportunity against a Blazers defense that has allowed an awful +5.51 Plus/Minus to opposing power forwards. Holmes has seen a minutes boost with Marvin Bagley out, and either or both could have a big game. Holmes is a good play at both sites and looks like the better play at 29.8 projected minutes.

Lauri Markkanen has been really disappointing to start the season — he has yet to score 20 points in a single game since the season opener — but tonight may be his night against Bobby Portis and the Knicks. Lauri’s minutes are up over the past week, but his usage is down. If his usage catches back up, he could have a nice ceiling, especially at a more reasonable price tag after the slow start.

Center

Studs

Another position, another key player missing. Joel Embiid gets a boost with Al Horford taking a scheduled night off for rest. Embiid has a +2.26 Opponent Plus/Minus against a Cleveland team that has no one with any real chance of stopping him if he’s locked in.

The Cavs have actually played well, and that could work in your favor if they keep it close long enough for Embiid to get a full minutes load. We’re projecting him at 32.1 minutes and 32.26% usage, and those numbers will go even higher if Simmons ends up sitting out too. Embiid has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Andre Drummond looks like a quality option, and he’s an even better play if Blake Griffin sits out the second night of a back to back as expected in his return from injury. Drummond’s production has fallen over the past week, and he’s got a very difficult matchup against a Miami team that’s a -3.82 Plus/Minus against opposing centers. A lot of folks will be avoiding him with his dip in numbers and tough matchup, but if Blake is out, he could go back to his dominant ways.

Value

Rudy Gobert is coming off his biggest statistical game of the season with 25 points and 14 boards against the Warriors, and he could duplicate that production against a Brooklyn team with an abysmal +4.75 Opponent Plus/Minus. Gobert is an excellent tournament pivot stud at +6.08 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s even better at DraftKings at +7.15 with a 75% Bargain Rating.

Fast Break

Bobby Portis revenge game? Bobby Portis revenge game. Portis always plays better when motivated, and he dropped 28 points and 11 boards on Chicago just two weeks ago. He should benefit from the absence of Mitchell Robinson and has a +5.46 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, and that added revenge motivation give him an unusually high ceiling for his price tag.

Pictured Above: Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22)
Photo Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports