The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard, who was trending in the wrong direction for a good while, seems to be back on track. He’s outperforming expectations in eight of his last 10 games with an average +6.78 in that stretch and seven 30-point games. Despite that, his salary remains near its season-low on FanDuel, and he should remain hot even in a somewhat difficult matchup against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors.
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Damian Lillard (0) of the Portland Trail Blazers.
With 13 Pro Trends and a +5.14 Projected Plus/Minus, he’s one of the better plays at FanDuel and might be a rare opportunity to field a second stud without crippling your lineup depth. His volume could increase further if C.J. McCollum (questionable) sits.
Speaking of Kyle Lowry, he’s another excellent semi-stud option. The Blazers are a plus matchup for any position, but especially guards. Lowry has also been hot lately, exceeding expectations in seven of 10 games with an average +6.73. He doesn’t have quite the scoring upside of Lillard, but might be an even better play today with a Projected Plus/Minus over +7.9 at both sites, highest among all point guard options.
Value
Chris Paul has been a strong fantasy value all season, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue in an excellent spot against Brooklyn with their +3.9 Opponent Plus/Minus and +4.5 pace differential. With Lillard and Lowry expected to be in a lot of lineups, CP3 could be an interesting pivot. He’s certainly a valuable play in GPPs and is over +5.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
Derrick Rose has bested fantasy expectations in nearly 60% of his games, though his numbers can be a bit volatile as his scoring fluctuates. He’s up to 1.25 fantasy points per minute over the last month and is in a nice spot to score big against Cleveland. He’s an excellent middle option at over +4.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Spencer Dinwiddie’s price tag is finally rising commensurate of his All-Star caliber play, but he still has a 75% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. He’s a good play there even in a tough matchup and leads all point guards with 14 Pro Trends.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Devin Booker is the top stud option at shooting guard tonight, but our models are rather lukewarm on his prospects. The Kings haven’t been as porous as you’d think defensively, and their -4.8 pace differential hurts Booker’s numbers a good deal. Booker has been hot, exceeding expectations in six straight games, but that’s precisely the problem. His salary has risen in that span from under $7,000 to $8,800, a huge jump that has killed his value. He has negative Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
Value
Buddy Hield has been hot too but without the price jump. He’s exceeded expectations in six straight with an average +11.5 in that stretch and at least 20 points in every one of the games.
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Buddy Hield (24) of the Sacramento Kings.
Hield benefits from that pace uptick against the Suns and, frankly, from playing Booker. He’s a strong play at both sites but an even better one at FanDuel, where his 94% Bargain Rating helps him to a +8.03 Projected Plus/Minus to lead the position.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is another wonderful option. He has only a 50% consistency rating on the season but has exceeded expectations in eight of his last 10 by an average of +9.75. He has a great matchup against the Nets (see CP3 above) and comes with 11 Pro Trends and a +7.14 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Andrew Wiggins is finally back after an extended absence, and he’s playing at a bargain price because of it. This is his lowest price since early November, and he’s in a plus matchup against Memphis. Wiggins is over +2.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, and that number could rise further if Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable) is out again.
Small Forward
Studs
On a night without many megastars, the Lakers have two big-time headliners. They are hosting the Knicks, so you’ll need to decide if LeBron James will even have to put forth full effort or if he could end up with a reduced workload in a snoozer — he’s also dealing with an illness. Of course, LeBron is always going to produce quality points if he gets the minutes. Even at his steep price, he’s exceeded expectations in eight of his last 10 with three triple-doubles.
Allen Berezovsky/Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James (23) of the Los Angeles Lakers.
If you want to play LeBron, he’s a better play at FanDuel with an 80% Bargain Rating and a +4.41 Projected Plus/Minus. Our models are not as excited about him at DraftKings. There’s a real opportunity to fade both Lakers stars tonight if you think L.A. wins big, spending your money elsewhere and fading two big plays at the same time.
Value
OG Anunoby looks like a terrific value play at small forward, with a +7.64 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings and an outrageous +12.2 at FanDuel to lead all players. Anunoby has been playing big minutes lately and is projected at 33.8 minutes tonight with Fred VanVleet out in a plus matchup against the Blazers. He has an 87 Upside Rating and could be a tournament-winning bargain if he hits.
Fast Break
Anunoby will line up across from Kent Bazemore, another nice bargain option. Bazemore doesn’t have much of a ceiling, but he could play big minutes if McCollum is out and has a nice floor that should make him a positive contributor, even at his meager 0.59 fantasy points per minute over the last month.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis is the other Lakers stud option tonight, listed as probable with a sore shoulder. Remember, both Lakers stars have been banged up lately, so Los Angeles may not hesitate to rest them if they blow out the Knicks.
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Davis (3) of the Los Angeles Lakers.
LeBron is the steadier fantasy play, but Davis has tournament-winning upside on the days when he hits big and he’s been hot with over 64 fantasy points in each of his last two games. Our models think Davis is a fine enough play but are somewhat fading him tonight with other better lineup options potentially available.
Value
Pistons rookie Sekou Doumboya finally costs more than the minimum, but might still be worth the price of admission. Detroit continues to be without Blake Griffin and Markieff Morris, and Doumbouya has been starting at the four, averaging 12.3 points and 9.7 rebounds over the last three games. Sekou is raw but should have plenty of opportunity against Cleveland, and he’s over +6.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
If you don’t like Doumbouya, maybe it’s because you figure he’s going to have his hands full with Kevin Love. Love is an especially strong play at FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating and a +5.07 Projected Plus/Minus, though you are right to be concerned about his motivations after a horrid game against OKC and all the recent grumbling.
Good God, is that Harry Giles’s music? The former number one prospect has been a bust since leaving high school, but he’s getting regular minutes with several Sacramento big men injuries and he’s established a nice floor. Giles plays for nearly the minimum, so he doesn’t have to do much to be a good value. Our projections have him at 17.2 minutes, and that could go up further if Richaun Holmes (questionable) is out. Giles is over +5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond is the most expensive name on the slate tonight outside of the L.A. duo, and you can build a pretty interesting lineup around him if you want to fade the Lakers. Drummond gets a +2.1 Opponent Plus/Minus against Cleveland, and the Cavs are short big men tonight too with several injuries.
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Andre Drummond (0) of the Detroit Pistons.
Drummond has a 94 Upside Rating, thanks in part to his sneaky “stocks” numbers. He’s had at least four steals and blocks combined in five straight games and should have a good shot to do so again, and remember, those are worth three points each. Drummond is over +3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Karl-Anthony Towns is technically also a stud option tonight, but he hasn’t played in almost a month and is questionable at the time of writing. Towns has a nice matchup in theory, but his price tag hasn’t really fallen much and you have to figure he’ll be eased back into the lineup even if he does play. He has a significantly negative Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, a clear fade until we see more.
Value
It probably won’t be a surprise to see yet another Thunder recommendation, but Steven Adams might be the best of them all. Adams looks like a monster play tonight at over +9.3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. He benefits from the Brooklyn pace uptick and also gets a +4.51 Opponent Plus/Minus with the Nets oozing points to opposing big men all season. Adams has exceeded expectations in 71% of his games this month, and tonight provides big upside with the consistent floor.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside is an interesting pivot. He’s a name many will avoid thanks to the negative Toronto matchup, but the Raptors are still missing Marc Gasol, so it’s not as bad a matchup as it seems. At over +3.3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he’s a strong pivot if you’re staying away from Drummond and Adams.
If you’re skimping at center, DeAndre Jordan might be your guy. He benefits from a +3.67 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Thunder and could see extended minutes as a big body capable of holding his own against Adams.
Pictured above: OKC Thunder guards Chris Paul (3), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2)
Photo credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images
