The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday main slate differs by site. DraftKings features a four-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET, while FanDuel features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Ricky Rubio has struggled a bit recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. That’s caused his salary to decrease quite a bit since its peak, which makes him a very appealing target vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies rank fourth in pace and tied for 24th in defensive efficiency, which has made them one of the best matchups in fantasy this season. They’ve struggled in particular against opposing PGs, giving Rubio an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.30 on DraftKings. He has excellent upside at a pretty reasonable price tag.
Value
The Cavaliers are an interesting team to target on today’s slate. They’re expected to be without Kevin Love, and his absence would open up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Collin Sexton figures to see one of the biggest boosts in value. He’s led the team with a usage rate of 28.7% with Love off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.90 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 33.7 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be more than enough playing time for him to pay off his current salary.
Sexton is a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard possesses the highest ceiling projection at the position in our NBA Models, but it feels like he could be a bit of an afterthought on today’s slate. There are plenty of superstars to pay up for at the other positions, and guys like Rubio and Sexton looks like better pure values at PG. With that in mind, Lillard should command lower ownership than usual, which makes him an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Justise Winslow is questionable for today’s contest, and his absence would keep Kendrick Nunn in play for another slate. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,400 salary. The Blazers are also an excellent matchup for PGs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.93.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker benefits from the same excellent matchup as Rubio, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.31 on DraftKings. Unlike Rubio, he’s been balling recently, scoring at least 44.25 DraftKings points in each of his past five games. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame.
The best part about the Suns is that they’re a pretty easy team to stack. Booker and Rubio have a correlation of +0.24, which is excellent for two players in the same backcourt. To put that in perspective, Lillard and C.J. McCollum have a correlation of -0.04. It’s not difficult to envision a scenario where both of Booker and Rubio provide excellent value at their current salaries, so this is a situation where a game stack makes a lot of sense.
Value
If you are looking to stack that contest, you’re going to need to run it back with at least one option for the Grizzlies. Ja Morant is the obvious target – and he’s definitely a fine option – but Dillon Brooks might represent a better pure value on FanDuel. His $4,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is underpriced on DraftKings, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. He’s snapped out of his slump recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including two contests with at least 50.5 DraftKings points.
Derrick Rose has SG eligibility on DraftKings, and he has the potential to become a very interesting option on today’s slate. We’re still waiting on the Pistons official injury report, but they’re dealing with a host of injuries at the moment. Rose posted a usage rate of 31.3% yesterday, and it’s hard to find that kind of usage at such a moderate price tag.
Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James continues to defy Father Time and is in the midst of another wonderful season. He’s averaged 55.68 DraftKings points per game this season, which is highest per-game average since the 2009-10 season. He leads the league with an average of 11.0 assists per game, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.39 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. Love him or hate him, you can’t deny that this dude is something different.
That said, he’s not a slam dunk on today’s slate. He’s been priced up to $11,000 on DraftKings, and his matchup vs. the Pistons is a bit concerning. The Lakers are currently favored by 15 points, which is a bit worrisome. LeBron has only played five games with a comparable salary and price tag, but he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.15 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
He’s much easier to target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
Cedi Osman has been an excellent value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.17 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.77 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he played more than 35 minutes in the Cavs’ last contest. He should see a similar workload today with Love and Larry Nance Jr. both likely out of the lineup, which makes him tough to pass up at just $4,300.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Cavs, Kevin Porter Jr. would also be an attractive option if he’s able to return to the lineup. He missed their last game for personal reasons, but he’s expected to be back in the rotation tonight. He’s been more effective than Osman on a per-minute basis, and he could be asked to soak up a bunch of minutes tonight. Tristian Thompson is also questionable for tonight’s contest, so the Cavs have the potential to be without their top three options in the frontcourt.
Derrick Jones Jr. stands out as the preferred punt play at SF on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he’s played at least 28.2 minutes in each of his past four games. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.78.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is coming off a big performance in his last game, scoring 73.25 DraftKings points vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. That snapped a streak of four straight games with a negative Plus/Minus and caused his salary to jump up to $10,900 on DraftKings.
With that in mind, I think he’s a very reasonable fade candidate vs. the Pistons. He has the same blowout concerns as LeBron but hasn’t offered the same upside for most of the season.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Seko Doumbouya looks like a steal at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off playing more than 38 minutes in his last game. Doumbouya is currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him nearly impossible to fade even in a tough matchup vs. the Lakers.
Fast Break
If you’re looking for a more contrarian way to target the Pistons, consider Christian Wood. He’s also underpriced on FanDuel – his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99% — and he’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season. Doumbouya saw significantly more minutes that him yesterday, but there’s no guarantee that happens again today.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the most promising young big men in the league, and he’s starting to put that talent on display. He’s averaged 1.14 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s seeing more minutes now than he was at the beginning of the season. He’s a very appealing option if you’re stacking the game between the Suns and Grizzlies, which owns the highest total on the slate by nearly 15 points.
John McCoy/Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James and Anthony Davis
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns’ status for today’s contest vs. the Cavs is currently unknown, but he’d be a very appealing option if he’s able to suit up. The Cavs are already a great matchup – Towns owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23 on DraftKings – and their frontcourt is obviously going to be pretty thin today. Towns has cooled off after a torrid start to the season, but his average of 1.62 DraftKings points per minute is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.
There is also a scenario where Towns suits up and Andrew Wiggins doesn’t, which would obviously increase his value.
Make sure to check out the Labs Insiders tool to get real-time updates on Towns and all the other key players on today’s slate.
Value
If Tristian Thompson is able to play, he could be looking at a monster workload. He’s already seeing a pretty good amount of minutes, and that number could rise with Love and Nance out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $6,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo looks like one of the best options on the entire slate. He leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings in an extremely juicy matchup vs. the Blazers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.04.
Photo Credit: Christian Petersen-Getty Images
Pictured: Suns guards Devin Booker (1) and Ricky Rubio (11)
