The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic has a tough matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.09 on FanDuel. That said, he’s going to very tough to avoid given the Mavs’ current injury situation. Kristaps Porzingis will miss his second straight contest, and Doncic has increased his usage rate to 40.1% with Porzingis off the court. He dominated in his first game without Porzingis, recording 77.5 DraftKings points thanks to a 39-point triple-double.
Doncic is a little pricy on DraftKings, but he’s a steal on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
Dejounte Murray sat out the Spurs last game for personal reasons, but he’s expected to return to the lineup tonight. He’s been awesome when on the court this season, averaging 1.16 FanDuel points per minute, and his matchup vs. the Bucks results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.34. He’s currently projected for 26.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough playing time for him to return value at his current price tag across the industry.
Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Dejounte Murray (5) of the San Antonio Spurs.
Fast Break
Kris Dunn is another viable value option at the position. He’s a slightly better value today on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 71%, and he would likely see a boost in production if Lauri Markkanen is unable to suit up. Markkanen was upgraded to questionable after originally being listed as doubtful, and Dunn has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute with Markkanen off the court this season.
Make sure to monitor the status of key players like Makkanen using the new Labs Insiders tool.
The Kings are in an appealing spot today vs. the Golden State Warriors. They rank just 21st in defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed four additional points per 100 possessions with Draymond Green off the court. De’Aaron Fox stands out in particular. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.28 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should see a bump in value with Marvin Bagley III and Bogdan Bogdanovic both out of the lineup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Zach LaVine has been balling recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.30 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That includes a 53.9-point performance in his last game in a tough matchup vs. the Celtics. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.13 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a usage bump of +2.4% with Markkanen off the court this season.
He owns 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is tied for the most at the position.
Value
The Celtics will be without Kemba Walker for the third straight game, which means Marcus Smart should draw another start. He struggled in his last game, scoring just 16.5 DraftKings points over 33 minutes, but he scored over 40 DraftKings points in the other two games that Walker has missed this season.
He remains affordable across the industry, and he owns an elite matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency and have played at the third-fastest pace this season.
Fast Break
The Jazz are red hot at the moment. They’ve gone 9-1 over their past 10 games and rank second in the league in Net Rating over that time frame.
Donovan Mitchell has been a big reason for that. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.45 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$600 over that time frame. His current $8,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01 in a great matchup vs. the Pelicans.
DeMar DeRozan hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling this season, but he offers very little downside at just $7,000 on DraftKings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games, and he’s eclipsed 40.0 DraftKings points in four of them. You’d definitely take that kind of production at $7,000.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the hardest players to handicap on today’s slate. We all know that Giannis is the best player in fantasy when he’s on the court. He’s averaged 1.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, and no one in basketball can match that production.
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) of the Milwaukee Bucks.
The problem is that he’s just not playing that much this season. He’s averaging just 30.9 minutes per game, and he routinely plays less than that in blowout wins. He’s projected for just 31 minutes in our NBA Models, which obviously caps his upside.
Still, it’s very hard to completely ignore him vs. the Spurs. The rank just 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ 117.75 implied team total ranks first on the slate. Giannis is also significantly cheaper than Doncic on DraftKings and should check in with significantly lower ownership. He is the ultimate boom-or-bust GPP-pivot.
Value
Thaddeus Young has SF eligibility on DraftKings, and that’s where he’s most valuable on today’s slate. He’s priced at just $3,700, and he has already been confirmed as the starter if Markkanen is ultimately ruled out. He’s currently projected for 28.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season. It’s very tough to pass up that kind of production at such a reasonable price tag.
Fast Break
The Celtics have a pair of appealing SF options in Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward, and both players stand out as excellent values on FanDuel. Both own a Bargain Rating of at least 91%, and both have also seen a boost in production in games with Walker out of the lineup. Hayward has averaged 31.1 FanDuel points in two games sans Walker this season, while Brown has averaged 31.9 FanDuel points in three games.
The Warriors have been absolutely devastated by injuries this season, and they’re going to be particularly shorthanded for today’s matchup vs. the Kings. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson both remain out with long-term injuries, and Green, D’Angelo Russell, and Kevon Looney will join them on the sidelines.
That should open up plenty of minutes for Glenn Robinson III. He’s averaged 0.75 FanDuel points per minute with all of the injured Warriors off the court this season, and his $4,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis has scored at least 43.0 DraftKings points in each of his past four games, and he’s done it in a variety of ways. He’s had big scoring games, big rebounding games, and a game where he nearly posted a triple-double. Overall, he’s averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis (11) of the Indiana Pacers.
He’s underpriced at $8,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%, and he has an excellent matchup vs. the Charlotte Hornets. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency and team rebound rate, giving Sabonis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66.
Value
Daniel Theis has played at least 24.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and his role should be safe as long as Walker is out of the lineup. That makes him very appealing today in a juicy matchup vs. the Wizards. They have been arguably the best matchup for big men this season, ranking dead last in both defensive efficiency and team rebound rate. Theis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.21 on DraftKings, which is one of the best marks at the position.
Fast Break
Richaun Holmes should continue to play big minutes with Bagley out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s a strong option vs. the Warriors, who have struggled mightily against opposing big men and will be very thin in the frontcourt.
Aaron Gordon has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his two games since returning from injury, yet his salary has still dropped to $5,700 for today’s contest vs. the Nets. It results in a Bargain Rating of 79%, and Gordon has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.07 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Center
Stud
Sticking with the Magic, Nikola Vucevic has been one of the safest investments in fantasy recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past nine games on FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.64 over that time frame. His salary has risen slightly over the past month, but probably not as much as it should have.
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Vucevic (9) of the Orlando Magic.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing centers this season, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.89.
Value
Enes Kanter probably won’t play more than 23 minutes today vs. the Wizards, but he can do a ton of damage in that time span. He’s been an absolute monster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +13.85 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and averaging 1.46 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That’s more than everyone but Joel Embiid among today’s centers. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70 vs. the Wizards, and his $5,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Fast Break
Wendell Carter Jr. has scored at least 35.8 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he should be looking at another healthy workload if Markkanen is unable to suit up. He’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s too cheap considering the amount of minutes he’s playing at the moment.
Joel Embiid should check in with miniscule ownership today, but he’s been an excellent value recently. He also has a solid matchup vs. the Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11 on FanDuel. Paying up for Embiid should give you a pretty unique lineup construction for GPPs.
Photo Credit: Glenn James-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured: Mavericks G Luka Doncic (77)
