The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Tonight’s game between the Rockets and Pelicans figures to be the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. These teams have played at the two fastest paces this season, and both rank in the bottom seven in defensive efficiency as well. The total on this game currently sits at 245 points, which is the top mark on the slate by more than 20 points. These two teams combined for 249 points in their first meeting this season, so there should be plenty of offense in this contest.
With that in mind, it’s really hard to avoid Russell Westbrook at just $8,800 on DraftKings. That’s an incredibly low salary for Westbrook. He’s only been priced at $9,500 or low in seven previous occasions in our database, and he’s never been priced below $8,900.
Unsurprisingly, he’s fared well with a comparable price tag, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.17 (per the Trends tool). He also has one of the best individual matchups in this contest, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.70, and he leads all point guards with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
Sticking with that contest, Frank Jackson is a nice potential source of value for the Pelicans. They will be without Lonzo Ball today, so Jackson could see a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s priced near the minimum at $3,700 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings, so he doesn’t have to do a ton to return value.
Fast Break
The Spurs have exercised extreme caution with Dejounte Murray to start the season, limiting him to an average of just 23.3 minute per game. That said, he’s been an elite producer on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.40 FanDuel points per minute. He’s in an amazing spot today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92 on DraftKings.
Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray (5).
Ja Morant got the night off in the Grizzlies’ last game, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup tonight. He’s played well recently, scoring at least 35.5 DraftKings points in four of his past six games, and his $6,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has righted the ship after an early season funk, scoring at least 73.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. The only thing that was stopping him from being an elite fantasy asset to start the season was poor shooting numbers, but it appears that he has that figured out now. He’s shot 43.5% from the field and 41.7% from 3-point range over his past four contests, both of which are comparable to his marks from last season.
There was some concern that he wouldn’t have as much offensive upside after the addition of Westbrook this offseason, but it appears those concerns were unfounded. He’s on pace to lead the league in usage for the third straight year, and his current mark of 41.0% would actually represent a new career-high. The biggest effect that Westbrook has had on Harden has been in his rebound numbers — his defensive rebound rate has decreased by 5.3% — but that has only resulted in one fewer rebound per game.
Basically, Harden offers just as much upside as he did last season, when he rewrote the fantasy record books. He’s an excellent option today in an awesome spot vs. the Pelicans.
Value
Josh Hart is another member of the Pelicans who figures to see increased playing time with Ball out of the lineup. He’s coming off just 23.2 minutes in his last game, but that was against a Hornets’ team with much more size than the Rockets. It wouldn’t be a shock if he plays more minutes today, and he’s currently projected for 30.2 in our NBA Models. Hart has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with increased playing time.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans guard Josh Hart (3).
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward fractured his left hand Saturday vs. the Spurs, so he’s expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks. Marcus Smart figures to replace him in the starting lineup, which makes him a nice value at just $5,400 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute this season, and that number has increased to 0.96 FanDuel points per minute with Hayward off the court.
Jrue Holiday, Donovan Mitchell, and and DeMar DeRozan are all priced between $7,000 and $7,400 on DraftKings, and all three figure to be underowned given the presence of Harden. All three players have excellent matchups, and all three own Bargain Ratings of 81%. Pairing two of these guys together should give you a pretty unique lineup construction for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Stud
I’m not sure if Kawhi Leonard taking on the Raptors counts as a true “Revenge Game”, but he looks like a strong option regardless. The Clippers have unsurprisingly exercised caution with Leonard this season, limiting him to just 30.9 minutes per game, but that hasn’t stopped him from putting together the best fantasy season of his career.
He’s on pace to shatter his previous career-high in usage rate, and he’s also averaging career-highs in assists and rebounds per game. Add it all up, and his average of 52.73 DraftKings points per game is nearly eight points higher than his average from last season (45.02).
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
The Raptors do represent a difficult matchup, but Leonard is catching them on the second leg of a back-to-back. He’s underpriced at $9,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Value
Josh Okogie stands out on FanDuel, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He has the chance to see a few additional minutes today for the Timberwolves. Jordan Bell has already been ruled out, Shabazz Napier is doubtful, and Jeff Teague is questionable with an illness. Okogie has played at least 31.7 minutes for the shorthanded T’Wolves in his past two games, and he’s scored at least 30.9 FanDuel points in both contests.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has been nothing short of spectacular through his first nine games with the Pelicans. He’s averaging 44.02 DraftKings points per game and is on pace to set new career-highs virtually across the board. He crushed the Rockets in their first meeting this season, scoring a season-high 63.25 DraftKings points, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Pascal Siakam leads the position with a whopping 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is not a number that you see everyday. Players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have historically been nice investments, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.86 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 26-30% ownership, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him come in at a much lower number.
Power Forward
Stud
PF is probably the weakest position to pay up at today. Blake Griffin is the most expensive option on FanDuel, but he will likely be limited in his first game of the season. Kristaps Porzingis is another option, but he has a brutal Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.24 vs. the Celtics. Jayson Tatum should see a boost in value without Hayward, but his salary has been priced up by $1,200 over the past month on DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s fair to wonder he much upside he has at such an elevated salary.
That leaves LaMarcus Aldridge, who stands out at just $6,300 on DraftKings. His current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and Aldridge has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.64 with a comparable price tag. This is an excellent buy-low opportunity vs. the Grizzlies, who rank sixth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.
Value
P.J. Tucker is very rarely going to put up a monster performance, but he’s also very rarely going to kill your lineups. He’s scored at least 23.5 FanDuel points in seven of his first nine games, and he has the potential to play upwards of 38 minutes in games that stay competitive. He’s a cheap way to get exposure to the best game of the night at just $5,400 on FanDuel.
Check out this video for a tutorial on how to use our Trends tool in combination with our Vegas Dashboard
Fast Break
Robert Covington is always an appealing DFS option because he has huge upside in the defensive categories. He’s tallied as many as eight combined steals + blocks in a game this season, and those are incredibly valuable on FanDuel at three fantasy points a piece. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option for GPPs.
Draymond Green is expected to rejoin the Warriors’ lineup tonight, and he’s an interesting option at $6,600 on DraftKings. He has a tough matchup vs. the Utah Jazz, but he should see a boost in fantasy value with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson on the sidelines.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has cooled off a bit after a torrid start to the season, but he still possesses one of the highest ceilings in DFS. He managed to scored 60.5 DraftKings points in his last game despite shooting 8-23 from the field and 3-14 from 3-point range. Overall, he’s averaged a stout 1.68 DraftKings points per minute this season.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. Andre Drummond and the Pistons. On one hand, Drummond has the strength to match him on the inside, which should limit his upside on the glass. On the other hand, Drummond doesn’t do well on the perimeter defensively, and Towns has done a lot of damage out there this season.
Guys like Harden and Westbrook have a clear edge on Towns for cash games, but he’s a nice pivot off the chalk in GPPs.
Value
Serge Ibaka is going to miss an extended amount of time for the Raptors, which opens the door for Chris Boucher to see some playing time. He’s coming off a season-high 24.4 minutes in his last contest, and he responded with 33.9 FanDuel points. Boucher has averaged 1.32 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s capable of producing when given the opportunity to play. He’s one of the better values of the day across the industry.
Fast Break
Of course, Marc Gasol also figures to see a bump in minutes sans Ibaka. He played 33 minutes yesterday vs. the Lakers, and his $5,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%. That’s tied for the top mark at the position.
Pictured above: Rockets PG Russell Westbrook (0)
Photo credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA Today Sports
