The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Welcome to the craziest slate of the year. Twenty-eight of the 30 NBA teams will be in action tonight, so there are going to be tons of players to choose from at every position.
Damian Lillard stands out at PG. His salary has dropped to just $8,800 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $1,500 compared to his peak this season. He’s struggled over that time frame, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, but there’s no reason not to expect a bounce back from him. He remains the focal point of the Blazers’ offense but has shot just 31.4% from the field and 27.5% from 3-point range over that time frame.
He’s in a decent spot today vs. the Thunder, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.41 on DraftKings.
Credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damian Lillard
Value
The Lakers have one of the best matchups the day vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They currently rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 119.0 points is the third highest mark on the slate.
Rajon Rondo has one of the best individual matchups on the team given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14 on FanDuel. He’s been excellent when on the court this season, averaging 1.02 FanDuel points per minute, so he’s definitely in play at just $4,400 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is unlikely to play tonight vs. the Rockets, which increases the appeal for Kendrick Nunn. He ranks second on the team in usage with Butler off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. He’s played upwards of 39.3 minutes in games without Butler this season, so he has big upside at his current salary across the industry.
Kemba Walker owns a ridiculous +5.26 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where his salary has decreased to just $6,700 for today’s contest vs. the Nets. That represents a decrease of $1,600 over the past month, and the only real reason for this was he missed a game due to an injury. He’s an elite value as long as he’s back in the lineup.
Ricky Rubio has also missed some games recently, but he’s expected to suit up tonight vs. the Wizards. It’s an excellent matchup, and the Suns’ resulting implied team total of 123.75 ranks second on the slate. Rubio has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he could return value at his current price tag even if he plays a few less minutes than usual.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden got off to a slow start to the DFS season, but he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.16 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s carrying basically an unparalleled workload at the moment. He leads the league with a usage rate of 38.9%, resulting in an average of 1.73 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also playing more minutes than just about anyone in basketball: His minute projection of 39.5 ranks second in our NBA Models.
He’s in a subpar spot today vs. the Heat, but the matchup is a bit better if Butler is ultimately ruled out. The Heat rank second in the league this season in defensive efficiency, allowing just 100.0 points per 100 possessions, but that number drops to 105.5 with Butler off the court. Harden is capable of going off against anyone, but he’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings in this matchup. He’s definitely worth some consideration in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Dennis Schroder comes off the bench for the Thunder, but that doesn’t stop him from playing close to 30 minutes per game. His role with the bench units also gives him a chance to handle the ball more, and he’s averaged a solid 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Dennis Schroder (17) .
He has a nice matchup vs. the Blazers, who rank just 20th in defensive efficiency to start the season. Schroder owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.56 on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell is coming off arguably his worst game of the season in his last outing, but that can be excused vs. the Bucks. He owns 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Pacers, which is tied with Harden for the most at the SG position.
Lou Williams has seen a slight reduction in usage rate this season, which is not surprising considering the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the offseason. That said, Williams is still capable of piling up buckets regardless of who he’s sharing the court with. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s capable of eclipsing that mark today vs. the Grizzlies. It’s an excellent matchup, with the Grizzlies currently ranking sixth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Don’t forget about Fred VanVleet, who has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past nine games. He’s playing massive minutes with Kyle Lowry out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel at just $8,000.
Small Forward
Studs
There really isn’t much more to say about Giannis Antetokounmpo at this point. He’s the best fantasy option by a wide margin this season, averaging a ridiculous 1.95 DraftKings points per minute. He’s on pace to post the highest usage rate of his career, which has led to an uptick in scoring, and he remains an absolute monster in the peripheral categories. The only thing that has been able to stop him this season has been a lack of playing time in blowouts.
Unfortunately, that could be an issue today vs. the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks are currently favored by 14.5 points at home, so this may not be a contest where they need a huge output from Giannis. He has huge upside if this game is more competitive than expected — the Bucks are currently implied for a slate-high 126.75 points — but don’t be surprised if Giannis is limited to around 30 minutes.
With that in mind, LeBron James could be the preferred option at the position, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 79%. His matchup vs. the Pelicans is just as juicy, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50, but he doesn’t have nearly the same blowout concerns. The Lakers are favored by just six points on the road, so his workload seems a lot safer.
Value
Miles Bridges hasn’t been a fantasy dynamo this season, averaging 0.78 DraftKings points per minute, but he still seems underpriced given the sheer volume of minutes he’s been playing recently. He’s played at least 30.6 minutes in each of his past four games, and he’s played closer to 35 minutes in games that have stayed competitive. He’s currently projected for 34.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.62 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jae Crowder has been an important part of the Grizzlies rotation this season. They have a lot of promising young players, but Crowder leads the team with an average of 30.6 minutes per game. He stands out as an elite value on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Danilo Gallinari is not the sexiest option for DFS, but he’s typically pretty reliable. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.31 vs. the Blazers. He’s a solid mid-range target across the industry.
Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis (3), Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Power Forward
Stud
There have been some growing pains for Anthony Davis with the Lakers, which is to be expected with a new team. That said, he has started to show some signs of life recently. He’s scored at least 53.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s cracked 61.25 DraftKings points in two of them.
Davis is a very interesting target today vs. the Pelicans. It’s a great matchup to begin with, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.89 on DraftKings, and there is obviously the additional motivating factor of getting to face his old team. He will likely get a very hostile reaction from the New Orleans’ crowd, and it’s unclear what kind of effect that will have on him. Regardless, this matchup definitely counts as a #RevengeGame.
Value
Frank Kaminsky should continue to see a few additional minutes with Aron Baynes out of the lineup, which makes him an appealing target at $4,000 on FanDuel. He’s also in an elite spot vs. the Washington Wizards, who have been dreadful against opposing big men this season. They’ve struggled on the glass in addition to on the defense end, which is a juicy combination for fantasy purposes. Add it all up, and Kaminsky owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard was just ruled out for the Clippers, which definitely vaults Paul George into “stud” territory. George has dominated the ball with Leonard off the court this season, leading the team with a usage rate of 39.3%. He has unsurprisingly found a lot of fantasy success in that scenario as well, averaging 1.77 DraftKings points per minute. He scored at least 49.25 DraftKings points in his first two games without Leonard this season, and he played 24.2 minutes or less in both contests. George has excellent upside if he sees 30+ minutes in that situation today in a strong matchup vs. the Grizzlies.
The Warriors have the potential to be without Draymond Green today, who is currently listed as questionable with a heel injury. Marquese Chriss would likely see a few additional minutes if he’s unable to suit up, and he’s scored at least 31.5 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. He’s averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $5,300 salary.
Center
Stud
Paying up at center normally stands out on DraftKings, where most of the top options have excellent Bargain Ratings. That said, Andre Drummond actually has a Bargain Rating of 75% on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Charlotte Hornets. Drummond has seen a slight decrease in fantasy production after Blake Griffin returned to the lineup, but he has the potential to do some damage vs. the Hornets. They currently rank just 26th in team rebound rate, which plays right into Drummond’s biggest strength. Overall, he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.68 on FanDuel, which is the top mark among the high-priced centers.
Value
Center doesn’t seem like a position where you want to pay down too far today. Hassan Whiteside stands out at just $6,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s been awesome when on the court this season, averaging 1.28 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 27.8 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.67.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo is another center with an excellent matchup. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46 vs. the Rockets, and his average of 1.22 DraftKings points per minute is equivalent to Whiteside’s. That said, he’s a much safer bet for playing time, especially if Butler is ultimately ruled out.
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Pictured: Clippers F Paul George (13)
Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
