The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is loaded with teams with massive implied team totals. That includes the Dallas Mavericks, who rank second on the slate with an implied team total of 125.75 points. That is easily their top mark of the season: Their previous high was just 120.25.
Luka Doncic will be back in the lineup after sitting out the Mavs’ last game, and he’s simply too cheap at the moment. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,400 over the past month on DraftKings and -$1,200 on FanDuel, which makes him an elite buy-low option. He’s particularly appealing at just $9,800 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%, and Doncic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +12.12 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
Value
The Heat will be without Jimmy Butler for today’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers, which should result in a bunch of playing time for Kendrick Nunn. He thrived with Butler out of the lineup in their last game, scoring 46.4 FanDuel points over 34.7 minutes. He’s seen an upgrade in fantasy value with Butler off the court in general this season, averaging 0.88 FanDuel points per minute. The Cavs also represent a great matchup, ranking dead-last in defensive efficiency.
Nunn is criminally underpriced at just $4,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The Bucks are in an interesting spot today vs. the Wizards. On one hand, the Wizards are a dream matchup. They rank tied for fifth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ resulting implied team total of 128.25 is higher than any previous mark we’ve tracked in the Trends database. On the other hand, the Wizards aren’t particularly good, so the Bucks are favored by 13 points on the road. This game definitely has some blowout concerns, but the Bucks have huge upside if it stays more competitive than expected.
George Hill could be an interesting punt play at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. His fantasy production has dropped way off over the past month — he’s averaged just 0.51 DraftKings points per minute — but he’s still seeing a solid handful of minutes. He could also see a few additional minutes today with Brook Lopez out of the lineup, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26 is one of the top marks at the position.
Russell Westbrook continues to crush following the Clint Capela trade. Playing without a traditional center has given him more space on his drives, and he’s basically eliminated the 3-point shot from his arsenal. That’s made him much more efficient as a scorer, and he’s obviously still capable of piling up the peripherals. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Knicks, who rank merely 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Sticking with the Rockets, James Harden has also seen a boost in value following the Capela trade. He’s scored at least 60.25 DraftKings points in each of his past four games, and that has come against some tough competition. He’s faced the Jazz twice and the Celtics during that stretch, and today’s matchup vs. the Knicks should feature much less resistance. Harden is definitely worth considering on DraftKings, where his $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Value
The 76ers have the potential to be without two key players today. Ben Simmons has already been ruled out, and Tobias Harris is currently listed as questionable after originally being listed as doubtful.
Josh Richardson would become a very appealing value play if Harris is ultimately ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.5% with both Harris and Simmons off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 33.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s been priced all the way down to $4,800.
Fast Break
If you are interested in loading up on the Bucks today, running it back with someone on the Wizards makes a lot of sense. Bradley Beal is the obvious target, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.10 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
D’Angelo Russell will be back in the lineup tonight for the Timberwolves, and he should be asked to carry a pretty large workload. Karl-Anthony Towns remains out with an injury, and Russell has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in his limited minutes without Towns as a member of the Timberwolves.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been ridiculously good this season, and he’s been even better recently. He’s increased his fantasy production to 2.02 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is absolutely insane. To put that in perspective, Harden has averaged 1.58 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and that ranks second on the slate. Giannis has also posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.12 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past nine contests.
The only real concern here is the point spread. Giannis should crush if he sees a full workload but that’s no guarantee vs. the Wizards. Giannis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.25 as a favorite of at least 10 points this season, but that number decreases to just +0.06 as a favorite of at least 13.
Value
Josh Jackson could be an interesting punt play at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings. The Grizzlies will be without Jaren Jackson Jr., and some of his minutes will likely be funneled towards Jackson. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of some extra playing time.
Fast Break
Jae Crowder has been a nice addition for the Heat. He’s averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 26.3 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. He’s scored at least 34.8 FanDuel points in three of those contests, and he should be looking at a slightly increased workload today with Butler out of the lineup. Crowder is very reasonably priced at just $4,800 on FanDuel.
Kelly Oubre continues to see one of the largest workloads in basketball. He’s coming off 38.7 minutes in his last contest, and he’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a very safe investment for cash games and has some ceiling for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle has had an up-and-down season with the Knicks. He got off to a terrible start, but he has steadily increased his fantasy production to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. He’s an interesting option today vs. the Rockets. They are obviously playing super small at the moment, and Randle can be tenacious on the interior. Overall, he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 on DraftKings.
Value
Brandon Clarke stands out as one of the top value plays of the day. He’s been an elite producer on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.19 FanDuel points per minute, but he’s been limited by a lack of playing time. That shouldn’t be a problem with JJJ out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and Clarke hasn’t been projected for more than 27.8 minutes in any other game this season. This could be a breakout spot for him.
Fast Break
The Cavaliers have a plethora of big men options at the moment. Their frontcourt was already crowded with Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, and Larry Nance Jr., and then they acquired Andre Drummond before the trade deadline.
That said, it’s hard to ignore Love at just $6,000 on FanDuel. He’s not playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he’s still averaged 1.1 FanDuel points per minute this season. His current price tag also comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Robert Covington has been an awesome fantasy asset as a member of the Rockets. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first six games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 38.25 DraftKings points in three of those contests. He remains reasonably priced across the industry, and he’s someone who is capable of filling up the stat sheet in a variety of ways.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has had a down year by his lofty standards, but he’s in a potential smash spot today vs. the Hawks. For starters, the Hawks are a juicy matchup. They rank just 28th in both defensive efficiency and team rebound rate, and they’ve allowed the most field goal attempts per game from inside six feet. That’s an awesome combination for opposing big men.
Embiid should also benefit from the 76ers current injury situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.1% with both Simmons and Harris off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.63 DraftKings points per minute.
Embiid remains priced down at just $9,500 on DraftKings, and he owns the fourth-highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models. He has the potential to be the best value on the entire slate if everything breaks right for him.
Value
Robin Lopez will likely draw the start at center for the Bucks, which makes him an interesting option at the absolute minimum across the industry. He’s not the same player as his brother, but he’s still averaged a respectable 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season. He also has an elite matchup vs. the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.24 on DraftKings. He doesn’t offer a ton of upside, but he should be able to return value.
Fast Break
Gorgui Dieng is another member of the Grizzlies who should benefit from the absence of JJJ. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Clippers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.33.
Nikola Vucevic could fly a bit under the radar today. He’s currently projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings, which makes him very interesting for GPPs. He’s scored at least 52.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he has an excellent matchup today vs. the Nets. They’ve surrendered a ton of big games to opposing centers this season, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.51.
Photo credit: Stacy Revere-Getty Images
Pictured: Bucks SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (34)
