The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving is coming off a monster game yesterday vs. the Bulls, scoring 66.5 FanDuel points over just 31.9 minutes. He dominated the basketball, posting a usage rate of 42.6%, and he’s eclipsed the 40% threshold in two of his past three games.
He’s in a phenomenal spot today vs. the Wizards. They’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace this season, and they also rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Irving owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.82 on FanDuel, and the Nets’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks third on the slate. He’s underpriced at $8,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. is a really interesting value option vs. the Pacers. Elfrid Payton has been handling the majority of the PG minutes for the Knicks, but he’s been suspended after shoving Jae Crowder during their previous game. Frank Ntilikina has also been ruled out, so Smith has the potential to start and play a solid handful of minutes. He’s been effective when given the opportunity to play recently, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $3,100 salary.
Fast Break
The Mavericks are going to be an important team to monitor prior to lineup lock. Coach Rick Carlisle surprised everyone by moving J.J. Barea into the starting lineup yesterday, and he responded with 28.5 FanDuel points over 20.7 minutes. He would be an appealing value at $3,800 if he draws another start, but it is possible Carlisle goes a different direction on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Damian Lillard has elevated his game to ridiculous heights recently:
https://twitter.com/theScore/status/1223642974778744833
He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +17.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends. He’s in a brutal spot vs. the Jazz on the second leg of a back-to-back, but fading Lillard is a very scary proposition at the moment.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Washington Wizards. They’re currently implied for 121.25 points vs. the Nets, which makes Bradley Beal a very appealing target. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.44 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 51.0 FanDuel points in five straight games. Beal has also historically been a strong investment with a comparable implied team total, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.79 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Value
The Mavericks should be a strong source of value today. They will be without Luka Doncic for the next few weeks, and Kristaps Porzingis will join him on the sidelines for today’s contest vs. the Hawks. The Mavs’ implied team total of 120.5 still ranks second on the slate, so they should be a prime fantasy target.
Delon Wright stands out on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 89%. He only played 25.2 minutes yesterday, but he could see a bump in playing time today. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.7% with Doncic and Porzingis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.04 FanDuel points per minute.
Seth Curry is another potential option. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.8% sans Doncic and Porzingis this season, and he’s currently projected for more minutes than Wright in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell was absolutely dreadful in his last game, scoring just four points on 1-12 shooting. That said, he was in a tough spot on the road vs. the Nuggets, and his current matchup vs. the Blazers is much friendlier. His price has also decreased to just $7,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s an excellent buy-low target.
D’Angelo Russell has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.97 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he represents one of the best pure values at the position today. He’s priced at just $7,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He also has a strong matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is priced in his own tier at the SF position. He’s $4,200 more expensive than Tobias Harris, who is the second-priciest option at SF on FanDuel. That should make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
LeBron is putting together another tremendous season, averaging 55.02 DraftKings points per game through his first 45 contests. He’s on pace to lead the league in assists, which is something he’s never done in his illustrious career.
Paying up for LeBron provides a lot of security at a pretty thin position. There are plenty of value options to choose from today, so it shouldn’t be that difficult either.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. is way too cheap on FanDuel at just $4,900. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Hardaway should be asked to shoulder a large load for the shorthanded Mavericks. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +6.3% with Doncic and Porzingis off the court this season, and he played over 31.7 minutes yesterday vs. the Rockets.
Fast Break
The Celtics have a tough matchup today vs. the 76ers, but they’re another team that will be shorthanded. Kemba Walker and Enes Kanter have both been ruled out, which makes Jaylen Brown an appealing option. He’s priced at just $6,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute with Walker and Kanter off the court.
Troy Brown makes a lot of sense for those looking to pivot off Beal but still want to grab a piece of the Wizards. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 34.6 minutes in each of his past two games. He also has a -0.14 correlation with Beal, so you probably don’t want to pair them in the same lineup.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis has been awesome for the Pacers this season. He’s averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +2.28.
He may not provide as much fantasy value with Victor Oladipo back in the rotation, but he should still be on a minutes limit for the next few games at a minimum. Sabonis is also priced at a discount at just $8,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He should find little resistance today vs. the Knicks, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Davis Bertans is another way to grab some exposure to the Wizards today. He’s coming off just 10.3 FanDuel points in his last game, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his four previous games. Overall, he’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He also owns a correlation of +0.56 with Beal, so he makes for a natural stacking partner.
Fast Break
Marquese Chriss will face a little more competition for playing time with Kevon Looney expected to return from injury, but he should still see a solid handful of minutes. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of making the most of his playing time. He also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Cavs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15 on DraftKings.
On the other side of that matchup, Kevin Love makes a lot of sense at $6,700 on FanDuel. That’s a really low price tag for Love, who has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.33 with a comparable salary. The Warriors have also struggled vs. opposing big men this season, giving Love an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.11.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert got off to a shaky start this season, scoring 27.25 DraftKings points or less in four of his first five games. That said, he’s been as good as ever since then, averaging 16.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks + steals per game.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Blazers, who have been dreadful vs. opposing centers this season. Gobert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.05 on FanDuel, and Gobert managed 41.25 DraftKings points in their first matchup despite attempting just seven shots. His ceiling projection is tied for third in our NBA Models, yet he’s just the ninth-most expensive option on FanDuel. He’s one of the strongest options to pay up for.
Value
Maxi Kleber is one of the prime candidates to replace Porzingis in the starting lineup today, which makes him a very appealing value at just $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 28.2 minutes.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside while be opposing Gobert in Portland. While his matchup obviously isn’t as friendly — Gobert is once again on pace to lead all centers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus — his upside is undeniable. No center on today’s slate has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 69.6 FanDuel points yesterday vs. the Lakers.
Photo credit: Rob Carr-Getty Images
Pictured: Wizards SG Bradley Beal (3)
